Understanding white polarization in the 2016 vote for president: The sobering role of racism and sexism
Abstract
THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN FEATURED major-party candidates who both explicitly put issues of race and gender at the forefront of the discourse. Notably, 2016 also witnessed the largest gap between the presidential vote preferences of college-educated and non-college-educated whites since 1980. While Donald Trump enjoyed just a four-point margin over Hillary Clinton among whites with a college degree (10 points less than Mitt Romney’s margin over Barack Obama among that group in 2012), his advantage among non-college-educated whites was nearly 40 points.1 This gap between college-educated and non-college-educated whites was possibly the single most important divide documented in 2016, and it was the culmination of an increasing divide in party identification among college-educated and non-college-educated whites following Obama’s election in 2008.2 While many election postmortems were quick to make note of the education gap among whites in terms of presidential vote choice in 2016, explanations for the origins of this gap were a subject of significant debate. Two primary explanations have been offered. The first is that white working-class Americans were left behind during the economic recovery that took place during the Obama presidency, and Trump’s populist economic message, focusing on protectionism and other policies to help working people, resonated with this feeling.3 A second explanation is that Trump’s willingness to make explicitly racist and sexist appeals during the campaign, coupled with the presence of an African American president and the first major-party female nominee, made racism and sexism a dividing line in the vote in this election.4 This led less educated whites, who tend to exhibit higher levels of sexism and racism, to support Trump, while more educated whites were more supportive of Clinton.5
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There is growing evidence that racial prejudice and resentment is one of the critical determinants of the appeal of Donald Trump to a substantial proportion of American adults.
“There is growing evidence that racial prejudice and resentment is one of the critical determinants of the appeal of Donald Trump to a substantial proportion of American adults [128,129,130].”
From Reducing Racial Inequities in Health: Using What We Already Know to Take Action (2019) · cites this paper as [129]
These associations were evident after holding constant multiple factors that predict voting behavior.
“These associations were evident after holding constant multiple factors that predict voting behavior.”
From Reducing Racial Inequities in Health: Using What We Already Know to Take Action (2019) · cites this paper as [129]
Denial of racism more strongly predicted voting behavior in 2016 than in 2012 and it predicted some voters who voted for Obama in 2012 becoming Trump supporters in 2016.
“Also, denial of racism more strongly predicted voting behavior in 2016 than in 2012 and it predicted some voters who voted for Obama in 2012 becoming Trump supporters in 2016.”
From Reducing Racial Inequities in Health: Using What We Already Know to Take Action (2019) · cites this paper as [129]
Moving from non-sexist views to sexist ones was associated with a 20 percentage point increase in support of Trump.
“Similarly, moving from non-sexist views to sexist ones was associated with a 20 percentage point increase in support of Trump [129].”
From Reducing Racial Inequities in Health: Using What We Already Know to Take Action (2019) · cites this paper as [129]
In one of the surveys, as respondents moved from a high level of acknowledgement of racism to a denial of racism, there was a 60-point increase in support of Trump.
“For example, in one of the surveys, as respondents moved from a high level of acknowledgement of racism to a denial of racism, there was a 60-point increase in support of Trump.”
From Reducing Racial Inequities in Health: Using What We Already Know to Take Action (2019) · cites this paper as [129]
Among whites, Trump had a four point margin of voter support over Hilary Clinton among college graduates, but a nearly 40% margin among those without a college education.
“Among whites, Trump had a four point margin of voter support over Hilary Clinton among college graduates, but a nearly 40% margin among those without a college education.”
From Reducing Racial Inequities in Health: Using What We Already Know to Take Action (2019) · cites this paper as [129]
Analyses found that a denial of racism and a hostile sexism, rather than economic difficulties, were the key drivers of support for Trump, especially among whites with low levels of education.
“The analyses found that a denial of racism and a hostile sexism, rather than economic difficulties, were the key drivers of support for Trump, especially among whites with low levels of education.”
From Reducing Racial Inequities in Health: Using What We Already Know to Take Action (2019) · cites this paper as [129]
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Inequality and its discontents
Nolan, B. W., & Valenzuela, L. (2019) · Oxford Review of Economic Policy · doi:10.1093/oxrep/grz016 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Cassese, E. C. (2019) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/1065912919889681 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
“The second asks how well Donald Trump treats women, and answers range from extremely poorly to extremely well on a seven-point Likert scale.”
ResultInfluentialMatos, Y. (2020) · Perspectives on Politics · doi:10.1017/s1537592720002492 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Inequality, identity, and partisanship: How redistribution can stem the tide of mass polarization.
Stewart, A. J., Plotkin, J. B., & McCarty, N. M. (2021) · PubMed · doi:10.1073/pnas.2102140118 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Did Brazilians Vote for Jair Bolsonaro Because They Share his Most Controversial Views?
Setzler, M. (2020) · Brazilian Political Science Review · doi:10.1590/1981-3821202100010006 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Functions of Anger in the Emotion System
Roseman, I. J. (2018) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-77619-4_8 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Parks, P. (2019) · Journalism Studies · doi:10.1080/1461670x.2019.1686413 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Conroy, M., Martin, D. J., & Nalder, K. L. (2020) · Journal of Women Politics & Policy · doi:10.1080/1554477x.2020.1731280 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Neundorf, A., & Pardos‐Prado, S. (2021) · Perspectives on Politics · doi:10.1017/s1537592721001961 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
“…2017; Sides, Tesler, and Vavreck 2017; Federico and Zavala 2018; Goetz et al. 2018; Hooghe and Dassonneville 2018; Morgan and Lee 2018; Mutz 2018; Schaffner, Macwilliams, and Nteta 2018; Setzler and Yanus 2018; Redlawsk et al. 2018; Reny, Collingwood, and Valenzuela 2019; Knuckey and Hassan…”
BackgroundPolitical Deepfakes Are As Credible As Other Fake Media And (Sometimes) Real Media
Barari, S., Lucas, C., & Munger, K. (2021) · doi:10.31219/osf.io/cdfh3 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Why We Love Michelle: Understanding Public Support for First Lady Michelle Obama
Elder, L., & Frederick, B. (2019) · Politics & Gender · doi:10.1017/s1743923x19000436 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
“…political attitudes during President Obama’s tenure on the national political scene (Kinder and Dale-Riddle 2012; Tesler 2016; Tesler and Sears 2010) and in the 2016 election of his successor (Abramowitz 2018; Schaffner, Macwilliams, and Nteta 2018; Tien 2017; Tolbert, Redlawsk, and Gracey 2018).”
BackgroundSimas, E. N. (2020) · Political Behavior · doi:10.1007/s11109-020-09607-4 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Perry, S. L., Whitehead, A. L., & Grubbs, J. B. (2021) · Politics and Religion · doi:10.1017/s175504832100002x · Cited by 28 · see citing works
“2019), hostile sexism (Schaffner et al. 2018; Bracic, Israel-Trummel, and Shortle 2019), economic anxiety or dissatisfaction (Morgan and Lee 2018; Sides et al.”
BackgroundRacial resentment, sexism, and evaluations of Kamala Harris in the 2020 U.S. presidential election
Knuckey, J. O., & Mathews, A. (2024) · Social Science Quarterly · doi:10.1111/ssqu.13405 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Geiger, J. R., & Reny, T. T. (2024) · Perspectives on Politics · doi:10.1017/s1537592724000847 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
- Authors
- Schaffner, B. F., Macwilliams, M., & Nteta, T.
- Affiliations
- University of Massachusetts Amherst (US)
- Venue
- Political Science Quarterly
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2018
- Volume
- 133
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 9-34
- ISSN
- 0032-3195 (ISSN-L)
- 1538-165X
- OpenAlex
- W2795844998
- Cited by
- 541
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 44 · 2023: 29 · 2022: 61 · 2021: 90 · 2020: 130 · 2019: 106 · 2018: 34 · 2017: 6 · 2015: 1
- FWCI
- 391.69
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model (vor)
- Locations
- Political Science Quarterly (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Populism, Right-Wing Movements
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Names, Identity, and Discrimination Research
- Keywords
- 2016 US presidential election, white voters, racial polarization, sexism, racism, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, educational gaps, party identification, populism, protectionism
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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