The DOI matches its Crossref record; 17 of the 17 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
Abstract
The economic value of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational ensemble prediction system (EPS) is assessed relative to the value of a perfect deterministic forecast. The EPS has substantial relative value throughout the medium range. Probability forecasts derived from the EPS are of greater benefit than a deterministic forecast produced by the same model. Indeed, for many users, the probability forecasts have more value than a shorter‐range deterministic forecast. Based on the measures used here, the additional information in the EPS (reflecting the uncertainty in the initial conditions) provides a benefit to users equivalent to many years' development of the forecast model and assimilation system. The impact of ensemble size on forecast value is considered. The difference in performance between ensembles with 10 and with 50 members may appear relatively small, based on standard skill measures, yet the larger ensembles have substantial benefit to a range of users. Further increases in ensemble size may be expected to provide additional value.
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Cites
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Impact of Ensemble Size on Ensemble Prediction
Buizza, R., & Palmer, T. N. (1998) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<2503:ioesoe>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 203
Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
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A probability and decision‐model analysis of PROVOST seasonal multi‐model ensemble integrations
Palmer, T. N., Branković, Č., & Richardson, D. S. (2000) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.49712656703 · Cited by 189
Self-citationEconomic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
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Cited by
Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability
Kalnay, E. (2002) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511802270 · Cited by 3,391
An Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter for Data Assimilation
Anderson, J. L. (2001) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2884:aeakff>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 1,749
Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Ensemble Prediction Systems
Hersbach, H. (2000) · Weather and Forecasting · doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0559:dotcrp>2.0.co;2 · Cited by 1,531
Skilful precipitation nowcasting using deep generative models of radar
Ravuri, S., Lenc, K., Willson, M., Kangin, D., Lam, R., Mirowski, P., Fitzsimons, M., Athanassiadou, M., Kashem, S., Madge, S., et al. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03854-z · Cited by 1,024
Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, P., Davey, M., Délécluse, P., Déqué, M., Díez, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Feddersen, H., et al. (2004) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-85-6-853 · Cited by 959
Metadata
- Authors
- Richardson, D. S.
- Venue
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2000-01
- Volume
- 126
- Issue
- 563
- Pages
- 649-667
- ISSN
- 0035-9009 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-870X
- OpenAlex
- W2068732663
- Cited by
- 477
- References
- 17
- FWCI
- 14.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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