Cited by 541Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)Machine Learning in HealthcareArtificial Intelligence in Healthcare

Interpretability of machine learning-based prediction models in healthcare

Open access
Stiglic, Gregor, Kocbek, Primoz, Fijacko, Nino, Zitnik, Marinka, Verbert, Katrien, Cilar, Leona·2020·WIREs Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery

Abstract

There is a need of ensuring that learning (ML) models are interpretable. Higher interpretability of the model means easier comprehension and explanation of future predictions for end‐users. Further, interpretable ML models allow healthcare experts to make reasonable and data‐driven decisions to provide personalized decisions that can ultimately lead to higher quality of service in healthcare. Generally, we can classify interpretability approaches in two groups where the first focuses on personalized interpretation (local interpretability) while the second summarizes prediction models on a population level (global interpretability). Alternatively, we can group interpretability methods into model‐specific techniques, which are designed to interpret predictions generated by a specific model, such as a neural network, and model‐agnostic approaches, which provide easy‐to‐understand explanations of predictions made by any ML model. Here, we give an overview of interpretability approaches using structured data and provide examples of practical interpretability of ML in different areas of healthcare, including prediction of health‐related outcomes, optimizing treatments, or improving the efficiency of screening for specific conditions. Further, we outline future directions for interpretable ML and highlight the importance of developing algorithmic solutions that can enable ML driven decision making in high‐stakes healthcare problems. This article is categorized under: Application Areas > Health Care

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This advanced review provides a practical overview of interpretability approaches for machine-learning prediction models in healthcare, organizing them as model-specific vs. model-agnostic and local vs. global. It illustrates these categories with real-world healthcare examples and outlines open challenges for interpretable ML in high-stakes clinical decision-making.

Key findings

  • Interpretability methods can be grouped into model-specific techniques, which examine internal model parameters, and model-agnostic techniques, which can be applied to any model, often post hoc; they can also be grouped into local interpretation of a single prediction and global interpretation of overall model behavior.
  • The review reports that SHAP was used to interpret predictions for prevention of hypoxaemia during surgery and “increased the anaesthesiologists anticipation of hypoxaemia events by 15%.”
  • MUSE was used to explain decisions from a “3-level neural network trained on depression diagnosis dataset,” generating global if-then rules and a separate rule set for a subspace based on features selected by a healthcare expert, focusing on “excursive and smoking” as potentially actionable features.
  • Visual analytics examples include RetainVis, a model-specific approach visualizing a recurrent neural network and used to predict future diagnosis of heart failure and cataract, and RuleMatrix, a model-agnostic rule-based system used to improve cancer and diabetes classification.

Methods

  • Design: advanced review / narrative overview of interpretability approaches for ML-based prediction models in healthcare, with a proposed simple categorization for experts and non-experts.
  • Scope: includes examples of real-world studies using interpretability approaches in healthcare, but explicitly excludes approaches focused on interpretability of ML models built on nonstructured data such as medical images, text, or other signal-based data.
  • Analysis: conceptual synthesis and illustrative examples organized by model-specific/model-agnostic and local/global interpretability; no systematic search, primary data collection, or quantitative meta-analysis is reported.

Limitations

  • Stated: the overview “does not provide an in-depth analysis” of open topics such as simplification of complex models for explanations that may result in suboptimal results, scalability of interpretable ML models (e.g., LIME or SHAP values can be computationally expensive), methods for evaluation of explanation models, and causality.
  • Stated: the review excludes interpretability approaches for nonstructured data such as medical images, text, or other signal-based data.
  • Evident from the text: as an advanced review with illustrative examples rather than a systematic review, it does not report a formal search strategy, inclusion criteria, or quantitative synthesis of evidence.

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Crossref · 10.1002/widm.1379

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Claims the paper makes

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  • Interpretationreasoning
    § Introduction · p. 2

    Lack of interpretability is a key factor that limits wider adoption of machine learning in healthcare.

    “Further, the lack of interpretability is a key factor that limits wider adoption of ML in healthcare.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Premisecitation
    § Abstract · p. 1

    Higher interpretability of a machine learning model makes it easier for end-users to comprehend and explain future predictions.

    “Higher interpretability of the model means easier comprehension and explanation of future predictions for end-users.”
    • Also stated in: § Introduction · p. 3 · plain
      “It is important that ML models are interpretable, because the higher the interpretability of the model, the easier it is to comprehend why certain predictions have been made (Molnar, 2018).”
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  • Premisecitation
    § Introduction · p. 2

    Bias of prediction models, for example towards black people as demonstrated by Obermeyer and colleagues (2019), can further undermine the trust of healthcare experts and other end-users.

    “Bias of prediction models, for example towards black people as demonstrated in a study by Obermeyer and colleagues (2019), can further undermine the trust of the healthcare experts and other end-users of such models.”
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  • Premisecitation
    § Applications of interpretable machine learning in healthcare · p. 7

    The authors of MUSE demonstrate its effectiveness to produce rules optimised for fidelity, unambiguity, and interpretability for a subspace focusing on exercise and smoking as those two features might be chosen by the expert as actionable features.

    “More specifically, authors demonstrate the effectiveness of MUSE to produce rules optimised for fidelity, unambiguity, and interpretability for a subspace focusing on excursive and smoking as those two features might be chosen by the expert as actionable features.”
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  • Interpretationreasoning
    § Applications of interpretable machine learning in healthcare · p. 7

    A typical global interpretability approach would not consider that some features in datasets are more interesting than others because patients and healthcare experts can influence their values through interventions.

    “A typical global interpretability approach would not consider the fact that there are features in the datasets that are more interesting than others as it is possible for the patient and healthcare expert to influence their values by introducing some interventions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
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    Findingnone given
    § Introduction · p. 3

    Both global and local interpretability approaches have been successfully used in different healthcare domains and are still being advanced in parallel with novel methodological approaches.

    “Both types of approaches have been successfully used in different healthcare domains and are still being advanced in parallel with novel methodological approaches in development of ML based prediction models.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
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    Premisecitation
    § Abstract · p. 1

    Interpretability approaches can be classified into local interpretability, which focuses on personalized interpretation, and global interpretability, which summarizes prediction models on a population level.

    “Generally, we can classify interpretability approaches in two groups where the first focuses on personalized interpretation (local interpretability) while the second summarizes prediction models on a population level (global interpretability).”
    • Also stated in: § Local or global interpretability · p. 4 · plain
      “Methods can explain a single prediction (local interpretability) or the entire model behaviour (global interpretability) (Molnar, 2018).”
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    Interpretationreasoning
    § Abstract · p. 1

    Interpretable machine learning models allow healthcare experts to make reasonable and data-driven decisions to provide personalized decisions that can ultimately lead to higher quality of service in healthcare.

    “Further, interpretable machine learning models allow healthcare experts to make reasonable and data-driven decisions to provide personalized decisions that can ultimately lead to higher quality of service in healthcare.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation
    § Abstract · p. 1

    Interpretability methods can be grouped into model-specific techniques, which are designed to interpret predictions generated by a specific model, and model-agnostic approaches, which provide explanations of predictions made by any machine learning model.

    “Alternatively, we can group interpretability methods into model-specific techniques, which are designed to interpret predictions generated by a specific model, such as a neural network, and model-agnostic approaches, which provide easy-to-understand explanations of predictions made by any machine learning model.”
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    • cites Molnar, 2018

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    Premisecitation
    § Introduction · p. 3

    Traditionally the focus in machine learning research was on global interpretability to help users understand the relationship between all possible inputs to a model and the space of all predictions made by the model.

    “Traditionally the focus in ML research was on global interpretability in an effort to help users understand the relationship between all possible inputs to a ML model and the space of all predictions made by the model (Bratko, 1999; Martens, et al., 2008).”
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    Interpretationreasoning
    § Interpretability of machine learning models · p. 4

    Interpretability approaches can be categorized into two non-exclusive groups: model-specific or model-agnostic, and local or global.

    “Therefore, we categorize interpretability approaches in two non-exclusive groups - i.e. model-specific or model-agnostic and local or global.”
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    Interpretationnone given
    § Applications of interpretable machine learning in healthcare · p. 6

    Attention-map visualization approaches for acute intracranial haemorrhage detection are not scalable.

    “but it should be noted that such approaches are not scalable.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
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    Premisecitation
    § Applications of interpretable machine learning in healthcare · p. 6

    SHAP was used in the detection of acute intracranial haemorrhage from images of CT scans, achieved via attention maps visualization where areas were highlighted.

    “or in the detection of acute intracranial haemorrhage from images of CT scans (Lee, et al., 2019), which was achieved via attention maps visualization, where areas were highlighted (segmentation map).”
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    Premisecitation
    § Sidebar title: Visual analytics and interpretability · p. 8

    RetainVis uses t-SNE to project patients on a 2D space and explains the model's interpretation of data by showing which patients are closely located in the latent space.

    “RetainVis uses t-SNE (Maaten & Hinton, 2008) to project patients on a 2D space and explains the model's interpretation of data by showing which patients are closely located in the latent space.”
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    Premisecitation
    § Model-specific or model-agnostic interpretability · p. 4

    Model-agnostic methods can be used on any machine learning model and are usually applied post hoc.

    “Model-agnostic methods can be used on any machine learning model and are usually applied post hoc (Molnar, 2018).”
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    Premisecitation
    § Sidebar title: Visual analytics and interpretability · p. 8

    Visual analytics extends the interaction paradigm of traditional information visualisation techniques to support both the interpretation of machine learning models and model steering with feedback from end-users.

    “Visual analytics extends the interaction paradigm of traditional information visualisation techniques to support both the interpretation of machine learning models and model steering with feedback from end-users (Endert et al. 2017).”
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    Interpretationreasoning
    § Introduction · p. 2

    Applying machine learning models on larger systems may not perform well because of the complexity of the data and diversity of patients and diagnoses.

    “Furthermore, applying those models on the larger systems may not perform well because of the complexity of the data and diversity of patients and diagnoses.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
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    Interpretationcitation
    § Introduction · p. 3

    There must be a possibility to make the results of machine learning models re-traceable, or the end-user has the right to explanation of all decisions made by the computer.

    “Consequently, this means that there must be a possibility to make the results re-traceable or in other words, the end-user has the right to explanation of all decisions made by the computer.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
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    Premisenone given
    § Introduction · p. 3

    Approaches for interpretability of machine learning models are either global or local.

    “In general, approaches for interpretability of ML models are either global or local.”
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    • cites Bratko, 1999

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    Premisecitation
    § Applications of interpretable machine learning in healthcare · p. 7

    MUSE generates sets of if-then rules that describe model decisions on a global level and provides a separate set of rules for a subspace based on features selected by a healthcare expert working with patients.

    “It generates sets of if-then rules that describe the model decisions on a global level, but it also provides a separate set of rules for a subspace based on the features selected by a healthcare expert working with patients.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Lakkaraju, et al. (2019)

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    Premisecitation
    § Introduction · p. 2

    Most machine learning models focus on accuracy prediction and rarely explain their predictions in a meaningful way.

    “Moreover, most of the models focus on accuracy prediction and rarely explain their predictions in a meaningful way (Elshawi, AlMallah, and Sakr, 2019; Ahmad, et al., 2018).”
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    • cites Ahmad, et al., 2018

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    Interpretationnone given
    § Interpretability of machine learning models · p. 4

    In the clinical setting, machine learning prediction models are different than models in other fields because predictions can have an impact on patient's health, so users need to have confidence in the predictions.

    “In the clinical setting ML prediction models are different than models in other fields, since the predictions can have an impact on patient's health, therefore the users of such models need to have confidence in the predictions of such models.”
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    Premisecitation
    § Sidebar title: Visual analytics and interpretability · p. 8

    Both model-specific and model-agnostic approaches have been researched in visual analytics prototypes.

    “Both model-specific and model-agnostic approaches have been researched in VA prototypes.”
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    Premisecitation
    § Discussion · p. 7

    In recent years, a shift can be observed from model-specific and global interpretable models to model-agnostic and local interpretable models, one reason being the availability of massive datasets in healthcare and a consequent shift to precision medicine.

    “In recent years, a shift can be observed from model-specific and global interpretable models to model-agnostic and local interpretable models, where one of the reasons is the availability of massive datasets in healthcare (Esteva, et al., 2019) and consequently a shift to precision medicine.”
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    Premisecitation
    § Sidebar title: Visual analytics and interpretability · p. 8

    RuleMatrix helps domain experts understand and inspect classification models using rule-based explanations and was used to improve cancer and diabetes classification.

    “The system helps domain experts understand and inspect classification models using rule-based explanations and was used to improve cancer and diabetes classification.”
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    Premisecitation
    § Model-specific or model-agnostic interpretability · p. 4

    To achieve model-agnostic interpretability, one can use a surrogate or simple proxy model to learn a locally faithful approximation of a complex black-box model based on outputs returned by the black-box model.

    “Typically, to achieve model-agnostic interpretability, one can use a surrogate or a simple proxy model to learn a locally faithful approximation of a complex, blackbox model based on outputs returned by the black-box model.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
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    Premisecitation
    § Model-specific or model-agnostic interpretability · p. 4

    GNNExplainer provides both global and local interpretability.

    “GNNExplainer provides both global and local interpretability and might prove useful for practitioners of GNN in the future, as it provides the ability to visualize relevant structures to interpretability and gives insights into errors of faulty GNNs (Ying, et al., 2019).”
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    Premisecitation
    § Sidebar title: Visual analytics and interpretability · p. 8

    RetainVis has been used to predict future diagnosis of heart failure and cataract.

    “The approach has been used to predict future diagnosis of heart failure and cataract.”
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    Premisecitation
    § Applications of interpretable machine learning in healthcare · p. 6

    SHAP was used in interpretation of predictions for the prevention of hypoxaemia during surgery, which increased the anaesthesiologists' anticipation of hypoxaemia events by 15%.

    “For example, SHAP was used in interpretation of predictions for the prevention of hypoxaemia during surgery (Lundberg, et al., 2018), which increased the anaesthesiologists anticipation of hypoxaemia events by 15%”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
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    Premisecitation
    § Local or global interpretability · p. 4

    MUSE uses the behaviour of subspaces characterized by certain features of interest for explanation.

    “An example of such model is Model Understanding through Subspace Explanations (MUSE), where it uses the behaviour of subspaces characterized by certain features of interest for explanation (Lakkaraju, et al., 2019).”
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    Interpretationreasoning
    § Applications of interpretable machine learning in healthcare · p. 7

    MUSE can be classified as a global model-agnostic interpretability approach, but it also demonstrates characteristics of approaches focusing on personalised interpretation by narrowing the subspace of search by end-user input.

    “As such, MUSE could be classified as a global model-agnostic interpretability approach, but it also demonstrates characteristics of approaches focusing on personalised interpretation by narrowing the subspace of search by end-user input.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
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    Interpretationnone given
    § Applications of interpretable machine learning in healthcare · p. 6

    Local and model-agnostic interpretability can be used in interpretability of complex models, such as deep learning models.

    “Local and modelagnostic interpretability can be used in interpretability of complex models, such as deep learning models.”
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    Premisecitation
    § Local or global interpretability · p. 4

    In order to explain the global output of a model, one needs a trained model, knowledge about the algorithm and the data.

    “In order to explain global output of the model one needs a trained model, knowledge about the algorithm and the data (Lipton, 2016).”
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    § Applications of interpretable machine learning in healthcare · p. 6

    The highlighted results in the acute intracranial haemorrhage detection study corresponded to the classification and could be understood by a practitioner.

    “The highlighted results corresponded to the classification and could be understood by a practitioner (Lee, et al., 2019)”
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    Premisecitation
    § Sidebar title: Visual analytics and interpretability · p. 8

    In recent years, researchers are increasingly relying on Visual Analytics techniques to support interpretability of machine learning models within healthcare fields.

    “In recent years, researchers are increasingly relying on Visual Analytics (VA) techniques to support interpretability of machine learning models within healthcare fields (Simpao et al. 2014).”
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    § Introduction · p. 3

    Local interpretation helps users to understand a prediction for a specific individual or about a small, specific region of the trained prediction function.

    “In contrast, local interpretation helps users to understand a prediction for a specific individual or about a small, specific region of the trained prediction function (Hall, et al, 2019; Stiglic, et al., 2006).”
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    Premisecitation
    § Sidebar title: Visual analytics and interpretability · p. 8

    RetainVis is a prominent example of a model-specific visual analytics approach that visualizes a recurrent neural network to support interpretation and diagnosis of the model.

    “RetainVis (Kwon et al., 2018) is a prominent example of a model-specific VA approach that visualizes a recurrent neural network to support interpretation and diagnosis of the model.”
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    Interpretationreasoning
    § Introduction · p. 2

    Healthcare workers often find it challenging to trust complex machine-learning models because they are often designed and rigorously evaluated only on specific diseases in a narrow environment and depend on technical knowledge of statistics and machine learning.

    “This is because healthcare workers often find it challenging to trust complex machine-learning models because they are often designed and rigorously evaluated only on specific diseases in a narrow environment and they depend on one's technical knowledge of statistics and machine learning.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
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    Premisecitation
    § Sidebar title: Visual analytics and interpretability · p. 8

    Visual analytics techniques combine concepts from data mining, machine learning, human computing interaction, and human cognition in order to facilitate interpretation of complex data and models.

    “In order to facilitate interpretation of complex data and models, VA techniques combine concepts from data mining, machine learning, human computing interaction, and human cognition (Caban & Gotz, 2015).”
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    Premisenone given
    § Applications of interpretable machine learning in healthcare · p. 6

    Global model-specific approaches to interpretability of machine learning based models in healthcare have been in use for more than two decades.

    “Global model-specific approaches to interpretability of ML based models in healthcare have been in use for more than two decades.”
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    Premisecitation
    § Sidebar title: Visual analytics and interpretability · p. 8

    RuleMatrix is a model-agnostic example that relies on extracted rule-based knowledge from the input-output behavior of a model.

    “RuleMatrix (Ming, Qu, & Bertin, 2018) is a model-agnostic example that relies on extracted rule-based knowledge from the input-output behavior of a model.”
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    Interpretationnone given
    § Sidebar title: Visual analytics and interpretability · p. 8

    In contrast to black-box-driven approaches, the objective of visual analytics is to allow domain expert users to interpret and diagnose models.

    “In contrast to 'black box'-driven approaches, the objective is to allow domain expert users to interpret and diagnose models.”
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    Interpretationnone given
    § Conclusion · p. 8

    Interpretability can be categorised in terms of model-specific and model-agnostic or global and local interpretability.

    “Interpretability can be categorised in terms of model-specific and model-agnostic or global and local interpretability.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
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  • The paper relies on this without support.

    In healthcare applications, achieving high predictive accuracy is often as important as understanding the prediction.

    “This is especially problematic in healthcare applications, where achieving high predictive accuracy is often as important as understanding the prediction.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Healthcare decisions are high-stakes because they can directly influence a treatment outcome or even a patient's survival.

    “In contrast to many other fields, decisions in healthcare are high-stakes decisions as they can directly influence a treatment outcome or even survival of a patient.”
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Cites

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Authors
Stiglic, G., Kocbek, P., Fijacko, N., Zitnik, M., Verbert, K., & Cilar, L.
Affiliations
  • Faculty of Health Sciences University of Maribor Maribor Slovenia
  • University of Maribor (SI)
  • Department of Biomedical Informatics Harvard University Cambridge Massachusetts USA
  • KU Leuven (BE)
Venue
WIREs Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2020-06-29
Volume
10
Issue
5
ISSN
  • 1942-4787 (ISSN-L)
  • 1942-4795
OpenAlex
W3039232647
Cited by
541
References
77
Citations by year
2026: 70 · 2025: 122 · 2024: 135 · 2023: 87 · 2022: 75 · 2021: 43 · 2020: 9
FWCI
21.02
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery (publishedVersion)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
  • Lirias (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • arXiv (Cornell University)
Funders
Javna Agencija za Raziskovalno Dejavnost RS (N2‐0101, P2‐0057)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
Keywords
model interpretability, local interpretability, global interpretability, model-agnostic explanation, clinical decision support, health outcome prediction, treatment optimization, screening efficiency

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-09.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-09.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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