CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 201Posttraumatic Stress Disorder ResearchTraumatic Brain Injury ResearchChild Abuse and Trauma

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 91 of the 91 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Estimating the risk of PTSD in recent trauma survivors: results of the International Consortium to Predict PTSD (ICPP)

Open access
Shalev, Arieh Y., Gevonden, Martin, Ratanatharathorn, Andrew, Laska, Eugene, van der Mei, Willem F., Qi, Wei, Lowe, Sarah, Lai, Betty S., Bryant, Richard A., Delahanty, Douglas, Matsuoka, Yutaka J., Olff, Miranda, Schnyder, Ulrich, Seedat, Soraya, deRoon‐Cassini, Terri A., Kessler, Ronald C., Koenen, Karestan C., International Consortium to Predict PTSD·2019·World Psychiatry
DOI 10.1002/wps.20608PMC PMC6313248
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

A timely determination of the risk of post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a prerequisite for efficient service delivery and prevention. We provide a risk estimate tool allowing a calculation of individuals’ PTSD likelihood from early predictors. Members of the International Consortium to Predict PTSD (ICPP) shared individual participants’ item‐level data from ten longitudinal studies of civilian trauma survivors admitted to acute care centers in six countries. Eligible participants (N=2,473) completed an initial clinical assessment within 60 days of trauma exposure, and at least one follow‐up assessment 4‐15 months later. The Clinician‐Administered PTSD Scale for DSM‐IV (CAPS) evaluated PTSD symptom severity and diagnostic status at each assessment. Participants’ education, prior lifetime trauma exposure, marital status and socio‐economic status were assessed and harmonized across studies. The study's main outcome was the likelihood of a follow‐up PTSD given early predictors. The prevalence of follow‐up PTSD was 11.8% (9.2% for male participants and 16.4% for females). A logistic model using early PTSD symptom severity (initial CAPS total score) as a predictor produced remarkably accurate estimates of follow‐up PTSD (predicted vs. raw probabilities: r=0.976). Adding respondents’ female gender, lower education, and exposure to prior interpersonal trauma to the model yielded higher PTSD likelihood estimates, with similar model accuracy (predicted vs. raw probabilities: r=0.941). The current model could be adjusted for other traumatic circumstances and accommodate risk factors not captured by the ICPP (e.g., biological, social). In line with their use in general medicine, risk estimate models can inform clinical choices in psychiatry. It is hoped that quantifying individuals’ PTSD risk will be a first step towards systematic prevention of the disorder.

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1002/wps.20608

Cites

91 of 91 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

We couldn’t retrieve this paper’s full text, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Show all 90 references

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. 10.1002/jts.2490100205 · DOI

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Items 201–201 of 201

Related

See all

Metadata

Authors
Shalev, A. Y., Gevonden, M., Ratanatharathorn, A., Laska, E., van der Mei, W. F., Qi, W., Lowe, S., Lai, B. S., Bryant, R. A., Delahanty, D., Matsuoka, Y. J., Olff, M., Schnyder, U., Seedat, S., deRoon‐Cassini, T. A., Kessler, R. C., Koenen, K. C., & International Consortium to Predict PTSD
Affiliations
  • NYU Langone Health (US)
  • Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
  • Columbia University (US)
  • Montclair State University (US)
  • Boston College (US)
  • UNSW Sydney (AU)
  • Kent State University (US)
  • National Cancer Centre Japan (JP)
  • Arq Psychotrauma Expert Group (NL)
  • University of Zurich (CH)
  • Stellenbosch University (ZA)
  • Medical College of Wisconsin (US)
  • Harvard University (US)
ORCID
Venue
World Psychiatry
Publisher
Wiley
Published
2019-01-02
Volume
18
Issue
1
Pages
77-87
ISSN
  • 1723-8617 (ISSN-L)
  • 2051-5545
DOI
10.1002/wps.20608
PMC
PMC6313248
OpenAlex
W2907125692
Cited by
201
References
90
Citations by year
2026: 13 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 42 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 11
FWCI
32.70
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations
  • World Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Pure Amsterdam UMC (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Leiden Repository (Leiden University) (submittedVersion)
  • Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
  • Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)
Funders
National Institute of Mental Health (MH101227)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Research
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Clinical Neurology › Traumatic Brain Injury Research
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Child Abuse and Trauma
Keywords
post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD risk prediction, early predictors, PTSD symptom severity, gender differences, socioeconomic status, PTSD prevention

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review