Cited by 201Posttraumatic Stress Disorder ResearchTraumatic Brain Injury ResearchChild Abuse and Trauma

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Estimating the risk of PTSD in recent trauma survivors: results of the International Consortium to Predict PTSD (ICPP)

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Shalev, Arieh Y., Gevonden, Martin, Ratanatharathorn, Andrew, Laska, Eugene, van der Mei, Willem F., Qi, Wei, Lowe, Sarah, Lai, Betty S., Bryant, Richard A., Delahanty, Douglas, Matsuoka, Yutaka J., Olff, Miranda, Schnyder, Ulrich, Seedat, Soraya, deRoon‐Cassini, Terri A., Kessler, Ronald C., Koenen, Karestan C., International Consortium to Predict PTSD·2019·World Psychiatry

DOI 10.1002/wps.20608PMC PMC6313248

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Abstract

A timely determination of the risk of post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a prerequisite for efficient service delivery and prevention. We provide a risk estimate tool allowing a calculation of individuals’ PTSD likelihood from early predictors. Members of the International Consortium to Predict PTSD (ICPP) shared individual participants’ item‐level data from ten longitudinal studies of civilian trauma survivors admitted to acute care centers in six countries. Eligible participants (N=2,473) completed an initial clinical assessment within 60 days of trauma exposure, and at least one follow‐up assessment 4‐15 months later. The Clinician‐Administered PTSD Scale for DSM‐IV (CAPS) evaluated PTSD symptom severity and diagnostic status at each assessment. Participants’ education, prior lifetime trauma exposure, marital status and socio‐economic status were assessed and harmonized across studies. The study's main outcome was the likelihood of a follow‐up PTSD given early predictors. The prevalence of follow‐up PTSD was 11.8% (9.2% for male participants and 16.4% for females). A logistic model using early PTSD symptom severity (initial CAPS total score) as a predictor produced remarkably accurate estimates of follow‐up PTSD (predicted vs. raw probabilities: r=0.976). Adding respondents’ female gender, lower education, and exposure to prior interpersonal trauma to the model yielded higher PTSD likelihood estimates, with similar model accuracy (predicted vs. raw probabilities: r=0.941). The current model could be adjusted for other traumatic circumstances and accommodate risk factors not captured by the ICPP (e.g., biological, social). In line with their use in general medicine, risk estimate models can inform clinical choices in psychiatry. It is hoped that quantifying individuals’ PTSD risk will be a first step towards systematic prevention of the disorder.

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Authors: Shalev, A. Y., Gevonden, M., Ratanatharathorn, A., Laska, E., van der Mei, W. F., Qi, W., Lowe, S., Lai, B. S., Bryant, R. A., Delahanty, D., Matsuoka, Y. J., Olff, M., Schnyder, U., Seedat, S., deRoon‐Cassini, T. A., Kessler, R. C., Koenen, K. C., & International Consortium to Predict PTSD
Affiliations: NYU Langone Health (US)
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
Columbia University (US)
Montclair State University (US)
Boston College (US)
UNSW Sydney (AU)
Kent State University (US)
National Cancer Centre Japan (JP)
Arq Psychotrauma Expert Group (NL)
University of Zurich (CH)
Stellenbosch University (ZA)
Medical College of Wisconsin (US)
Harvard University (US)
ORCID: Shalev, Arieh Y.
Gevonden, Martin
Ratanatharathorn, Andrew
Laska, Eugene
van der Mei, Willem F.
Lowe, Sarah
Lai, Betty S.
Bryant, Richard A.
Delahanty, Douglas
Matsuoka, Yutaka J.
Olff, Miranda
Schnyder, Ulrich
Seedat, Soraya
deRoon‐Cassini, Terri A.
Kessler, Ronald C.
Koenen, Karestan C.
Venue: World Psychiatry
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2019-01-02
Volume: 18
Issue: 1
Pages: 77-87
ISSN: 1723-8617 (ISSN-L)
2051-5545
DOI: 10.1002/wps.20608
PMC: PMC6313248
OpenAlex: W2907125692
Cited by: 201
References: 90
Citations by year: 2026: 13 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 42 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 11
FWCI: 32.70
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: World Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Pure Amsterdam UMC (publishedVersion, other-oa)
Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Leiden Repository (Leiden University) (submittedVersion)
Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)
Funders: National Institute of Mental Health (MH101227)
Topics: Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Research
Health Sciences › Medicine › Clinical Neurology › Traumatic Brain Injury Research
Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Child Abuse and Trauma
Keywords: post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD risk prediction, early predictors, PTSD symptom severity, gender differences, socioeconomic status, PTSD prevention

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Estimating the risk of PTSD in recent trauma survivors: results of the International Consortium to Predict PTSD (ICPP)

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