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Estimating the risk of PTSD in recent trauma survivors: results of the International Consortium to Predict PTSD (ICPP)
Open accessAbstract
A timely determination of the risk of post‐traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a prerequisite for efficient service delivery and prevention. We provide a risk estimate tool allowing a calculation of individuals’ PTSD likelihood from early predictors. Members of the International Consortium to Predict PTSD (ICPP) shared individual participants’ item‐level data from ten longitudinal studies of civilian trauma survivors admitted to acute care centers in six countries. Eligible participants (N=2,473) completed an initial clinical assessment within 60 days of trauma exposure, and at least one follow‐up assessment 4‐15 months later. The Clinician‐Administered PTSD Scale for DSM‐IV (CAPS) evaluated PTSD symptom severity and diagnostic status at each assessment. Participants’ education, prior lifetime trauma exposure, marital status and socio‐economic status were assessed and harmonized across studies. The study's main outcome was the likelihood of a follow‐up PTSD given early predictors. The prevalence of follow‐up PTSD was 11.8% (9.2% for male participants and 16.4% for females). A logistic model using early PTSD symptom severity (initial CAPS total score) as a predictor produced remarkably accurate estimates of follow‐up PTSD (predicted vs. raw probabilities: r=0.976). Adding respondents’ female gender, lower education, and exposure to prior interpersonal trauma to the model yielded higher PTSD likelihood estimates, with similar model accuracy (predicted vs. raw probabilities: r=0.941). The current model could be adjusted for other traumatic circumstances and accommodate risk factors not captured by the ICPP (e.g., biological, social). In line with their use in general medicine, risk estimate models can inform clinical choices in psychiatry. It is hoped that quantifying individuals’ PTSD risk will be a first step towards systematic prevention of the disorder.
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“prior meta-analytic results revealing individuals with lower baseline PTSD scores were more likely to drop out of prospective post-trauma studies (Shalev et al., 2019).”
From PTSD in the Year Following Sexual Assault: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies (2023) · cites this paper as Shalev et al., 2019
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“…VIOLENCE, & ABUSE 24(2) dropouts had PTSD (23.04% and 14.75% at 9 and 12 months, respectively), which would be consistent with prior metaanalytic results revealing that individuals with lower baseline PTSD scores were more likely to drop out of prospective posttrauma studies (Shalev et al., 2019).”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Shalev, A. Y., Gevonden, M., Ratanatharathorn, A., Laska, E., van der Mei, W. F., Qi, W., Lowe, S., Lai, B. S., Bryant, R. A., Delahanty, D., Matsuoka, Y. J., Olff, M., Schnyder, U., Seedat, S., deRoon‐Cassini, T. A., Kessler, R. C., Koenen, K. C., & International Consortium to Predict PTSD
- Affiliations
- NYU Langone Health (US)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- Columbia University (US)
- Montclair State University (US)
- Boston College (US)
- UNSW Sydney (AU)
- Kent State University (US)
- National Cancer Centre Japan (JP)
- Arq Psychotrauma Expert Group (NL)
- University of Zurich (CH)
- Stellenbosch University (ZA)
- Medical College of Wisconsin (US)
- Harvard University (US)
- ORCID
- Venue
- World Psychiatry
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2019-01-02
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 77-87
- ISSN
- 1723-8617 (ISSN-L)
- 2051-5545
- PMC
- PMC6313248
- OpenAlex
- W2907125692
- Cited by
- 201
- References
- 90
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 25 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 42 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 11
- FWCI
- 32.70
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- World Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Pure Amsterdam UMC (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Leiden Repository (Leiden University) (submittedVersion)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich)
- Funders
- National Institute of Mental Health (MH101227)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Clinical Neurology › Traumatic Brain Injury Research
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Child Abuse and Trauma
- Keywords
- post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD risk prediction, early predictors, PTSD symptom severity, gender differences, socioeconomic status, PTSD prevention
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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