The DOI matches its Crossref record; 10 of the 12 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance
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“This is a mechanism of global “subjective” (here in roughly the sense of “subjective Bayesian”) optimization, which does not always entail “objective” optimality, though it must approximate the latter reliably enough (cf., Lewis, 1980).”
From The Projective Consciousness Model and Phenomenal Selfhood (2018) · cites this paper as Lewis, 1980
Citations
Cites
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Research works printed but not linked: 2
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“Then (see Lewis (1986), p. 111).”
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“As Pettigrew (2012) notes, this version of the principal principle is an externalist norm: it references a quantity—chance—to which we are not guaranteed access.”
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“preted. • Assuming that frequentist probabilities from sampling models should be equal to the subjectivist or objectivist epistemic probabilities if it is known that the sampling model is true (which Lewis, 1980, called “the principal principle”), the parameter prior can still be interpreted as giving epistemic probab…”
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“In A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance, David Lewis (1980) considered the possibility for a subjectivist to accept the existence of objective chance, and argued how this acceptance would affect the subjectivist’s degrees of belief (credences) about the world.”
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“David Lewis (1980) thinks that Carnap was right that there are two kinds of probability, but he disagrees about what they are.”
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“Several others recognized that, when the relevant distinctions are taken into account, second-order probabilities can be shown to be formally consistent [19,10,2,8,3].”
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“(Lewis 1980, p. 266).”
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“6 In diesem Abschnitt beziehe ich mich durchweg auf Lewis (1980).”
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“Although they were not thereby violating Bayes’ rule (which is not meant to cover the provision of statistical information; see [16]), they were violating a closely related principle, almost equally widely endorsed by Bayesians, to wit, the so-called principal principle [21], which dictates that one’s degree of belief…”
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“Nonetheless, there are some authors who have explored such a departure, e.g. Shimony (1955), Jeffreys (1961), Bernstein and Wattenberg (1969), Lewis (1980), Benci et al. (2013, 2018), Wenmackers and Horsten (2013), Bottazzi et al. (2019), Bottazzi and Katz (2021a,b), etc.”
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“(This is in line with what Lewis 1980) called the principle principal connecting chance and credence.)”
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“One might find some support for this intuitive assessment and its attribution of free-floating chances by attending to the spirit of David Lewis’ ([1994]) 1 It is quite natural to phrase this in terms of ‘indication’ or ‘tell-tale signs’, but it is important to resist the epistemic reading that these terms might sugge…”
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“Lewis (1980) proposed the principal principle—that we should set our (subjective) credences to the (objective) chances we observe—as the way to coordinate probabilities in an epistemological model using features of the world.”
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“On the account of probability that I favour, probabilities arise from the nomological order—they are determined by the laws of nature (Zalabardo 2012: pp. 68–70).5 Hence in order to obtain the probabilities that figure in my account of knowledge all we need 5 See Lewis (1986, 1994).”
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“The motivating idea behind Lewis’s [1980] Principal Principle connecting credence to objective chance was that objective chance should be understood as the “ideal” credence an agent should adopt, given all admissible information.”
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“This is a generalization of the controversial regularity condition from Bayesian epistemology, which requires that an agent never assign credence 1 to any contingent proposition (see, e.g., Lewis [1980] and Skyrms [1980] for philosophical justifications of the Bayesian regularity condition).”
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“nformation relevant to an estimation must be found in the likelihood function. (The above is, of course, a highly simplified presentation of a complex topic. A deeper discussion can be found, e.g., in [27, 20].) 7.2. The Wallace prior Let us consider the standing of the Wallace prior and the Jeffreys prior for the Neyma…”
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“On such a view a natural law L is not intrinsically necessary, in the way that a tautology is, but must 11 This was one of the objections made in Lewis (1980) to his own (quickly dismissed) epistemic theory of chance.”
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“As we will see, the same is not true when one considers statements under inconsistent suppositions, however.”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Lewis, D.
- Affiliations
- Princeton University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lewis, David
- ORCID
- Lewis, David
- Venue
- IFS
- Publisher
- Springer Netherlands
- Published
- 1980
- Pages
- 267-297
- OpenAlex
- W1510271585
- Cited by
- 799
- References
- 12
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 8 · 2024: 19 · 2023: 13 · 2022: 47 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 42 · 2019: 32 · 2018: 35 · 2017: 42 · 2016: 39 · 2015: 47 · 2014: 58 · 2013: 32 · 2012: 58
- FWCI
- 76.27
- Type
- book chapter
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Springer eBooks (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Literary, Cultural, Historical Analysis
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Probability and Statistical Research
- Keywords
- objective chance, subjective probability, partial belief, degrees of belief, tritium decay, philosophy of probability, concept of chance
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