Climate Change and Heat-Related Excess Mortality in the Eastern USA
Open accessAbstract
Climate change will increase extreme heat-related health risks. To quantify the health impacts of mid-century climate change, we assess heat-related excess mortality across the eastern USA. Health risks are estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Mid-century temperature estimates, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, are compared to 2007 temperatures at 36 km and 12 km resolutions. Models indicate the average apparent and actual summer temperatures rise by 4.5° and 3.3° C, respectively. Warmer average apparent temperatures could cause 11,562 additional annual deaths (95% confidence interval, CI: 2641-20,095) due to cardiovascular stress in the population aged 65 years and above, while higher minimum temperatures could cause 8767 (95% CI: 5030-12,475) additional deaths each year. Modeled future climate data available at both coarse (36 km) and fine (12 km) resolutions predict significant human health impacts from warmer climates. The findings suggest that currently available information on future climates is sufficient to guide regional planning for the protection of public health. Higher resolution climate and demographic data are still needed to inform more targeted interventions.
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The increasing temperature in urban areas and the development of the UHI phenomenon increase vulnerability to heatwaves and the death rate in urban regions.
“The increasing temperature in urban areas and the development of the UHI phenomenon increase vulnerability to heatwaves and the death rate in urban regions [13,16,17].”
From Assessing the Spatial Mapping of Heat Vulnerability under Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area (2022) · cites this paper as [13]
The Results (Spatial Distribution of Health Impacts) project greater summer warming and heat-related mortality in core metropolitan counties than in rural counties, although the mortality-rate differences are not statistically significant. The paper does not establish that development of the urban heat island (UHI) causes this increase, and the Introduction and Purpose says its analysis concerns long-term seasonal temperatures rather than acute heat waves. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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BackgroundInfluentialAnthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health
Christidis, N., Mitchell, D., & Stott, P. A. (2019) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.6104 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
- Authors
- Limaye, V. S., Vargo, J., Harkey, M., Holloway, T., & Patz, J. A.
- Affiliations
- University of Wisconsin–Madison (US)
- Corresponding author
- Limaye, Vijay S.
- Venue
- EcoHealth
- Published
- 2018-08-29
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 485-496
- ISSN
- 1612-9202 (ISSN-L)
- 1612-9210
- PMC
- PMC6572724
- OpenAlex
- W2889036630
- Cited by
- 54
- References
- 49
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 2.71
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- EcoHealth (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (1R21ES020232-01)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Thermoregulation and physiological responses
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Air Quality and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- climate change, heat-related mortality, excess mortality, apparent temperature, cardiovascular mortality, older adults, minimum temperature, BenMAP, WRF downscaling, spatial resolution, eastern United States, public health planning
- MeSH terms
- Cause of Death, Forecasting, Humans, Infrared Rays, Public Health, United States, Climate Change, Health Impact Assessment
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