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Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change

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Diffenbaugh, Noah S., Pal, Jeremy S., Trapp, Robert J., Giorgi, Filippo·2005·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.0506042102PMC PMC1276070
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Abstract

We find that extreme temperature and precipitation events are likely to respond substantially to anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse forcing and that fine-scale climate system modifiers are likely to play a critical role in the net response. At present, such events impact a wide variety of natural and human systems, and future changes in their frequency and/or magnitude could have dramatic ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. Our results indicate that fine-scale snow albedo effects influence the response of both hot and cold events and that peak increases in extreme hot events are amplified by surface moisture feedbacks. Likewise, we find that extreme precipitation is enhanced on the lee side of rain shadows and over coastal areas dominated by convective precipitation. We project substantial, spatially heterogeneous increases in both hot and wet events over the contiguous United States by the end of the next century, suggesting that consideration of fine-scale processes is critical for accurate assessment of local- and regional-scale vulnerability to climate change.

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  • A weakening of orographic rain shadows related to changes in precipitation extremes has previously been noted in simulations of climate warming over North America.

    “A weakening of orographic rain shadows related to changes in precipitation extremes has previously been noted in simulations of climate warming over North America [22, 75].”

    From Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change (2015) · cites this paper as [22]

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Authors
Diffenbaugh, N. S., Pal, J. S., Trapp, R. J., & Giorgi, F.
Affiliations
The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) (IT)
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2005-10-19
Volume
102
Issue
44
Pages
15774-15778
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.0506042102
PMC
PMC1276070
OpenAlex
W2055570283
Cited by
498
References
50
Citations by year
2026: 9 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 18 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 23 · 2020: 23 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 19 · 2017: 16 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 35 · 2014: 34 · 2013: 45 · 2012: 37
FWCI
18.35
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
  • National Science Foundation (0315677)
  • Purdue University
  • Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
  • Purdue Climate Change Research Center, Purdue University
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
Keywords
temperature extremes, heavy rainfall, climate change response, snow-albedo feedback, rain shadow, convective precipitation, greenhouse forcing, regional climate projections, contiguous United States, climate change vulnerability
MeSH terms
Climate, Cold Temperature, Geography, Hot Temperature, Rain, Snow, Temperature, United States

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