The local impacts of climate change in the Ferlo, Western Sahel
Open accessAbstract
Recent increases in the accuracy of climate models have enhanced the possibilities for analyzing the impacts of climate change on society. This paper explores how the local, economic impacts of climate change can be modeled for a specific eco-region, the Western Sahel. The people in the Sahel are highly dependent on their natural resource base, and these resources are highly vulnerable to climate change, in particular to changes in rainfall. Climate models project substantial changes in rainfall in the Sahel in the coming 50 years, with most models predicting a reduction in rainfall. To connect climate change to changes in ecosystem productivity and local income, we construct an ecological–economic model that incorporates rangeland dynamics, grazing and livestock prices. The model shows that decreased rainfall in the Sahel will considerably reduce local incomes, in particular if combined with increases in rainfall variability. Adaptation to these climate change projections is possible if reductions in rainfall are followed by destocking to reach efficient grazing levels. However, while such a strategy is optimal from the perspective of society, the stocking rate is determined by individual pastoralists that face few incentives to destock.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Smallholder rainfed agriculture and herding in the Sahel are becoming increasingly difficult due to unpredictable availability of water and in some locations expansion of the Sahara Desert.
“Smallholder rainfed agriculture and herding are becoming increasingly difficult due to unpredictable availability of water and in some locations expansion of the Sahara Desert [23, 61, 62].”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [61]
The Results report that increased rainfall variability and reduced rainfall lower pastoralists’ profits in the Ferlo, supporting the claim about growing difficulty for herding. The paper does not establish the claim about smallholder rainfed agriculture or expansion of the Sahara Desert. Section 2.2 also says that grass biomass, rather than drinking water, is the limiting factor for livestock grazing there. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems
Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J. A., Folke, C., & Walker, B. (2001) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35098000 · Cited by 7,510 · see citing works
Special report on emissions scenarios
Nakićenović, N., Alcamo, J. M., Davis, G. F., de Vries, B. J. M., Fenhann, J. V., Gaffin, S. R., Gregory, K., Griibler, A., Jung, T. Y., Kram, T., et al. (2000) · eScholarship (California Digital Library) · Cited by 3,423 · see citing works
Global Desertification: Building a Science for Dryland Development
Reynolds, J. F., Stafford‐Smith, M., Lambin, É. F., Turner, B. L., Mortimore, M. J., Batterbury, S. P. J., Downing, T. E., Dowlatabadi, H., Fernández, R. J., Herrick, J. E., et al. (2007) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1131634 · Cited by 2,932 · see citing works
Self-citationGiorgi, F. M. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2006gl025734 · Cited by 2,755 · see citing works
Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe
Schröter, D., Crämer, W., Leemans, R., Prentice, I. C., Araújo, M. B., Arnell, N. W., Bondeau, A., Bugmann, H. K. M., Carter, T. R., Gracia, C. A., et al. (2005) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1115233 · Cited by 1,701 · see citing works
Self-citationAfrican climate change: 1900-2100
Hulme, M., Doherty, R. M., Ngara, T., New, M. G., & Lister, D. (2001) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr017145 · Cited by 1,323 · see citing works
Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales.
Giannini, A., Saravanan, R., & Chang, P. (2003) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1089357 · Cited by 1,058 · see citing works
Avoiding dangerous climate change
Schellnhuber, H. J., Crämer, W., Nakićenović, N., Wigley, T. M. L., & Yohe, G. W. (2006) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.44-0979 · Cited by 594 · see citing works
Rull, V., & Vegas‐Vilarrúbia, T. (2005) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.001080.x · Cited by 592 · see citing works
Stable States and Thresholds of Range Condition on North American Rangelands: A Viewpoint
Laycock, W. A. (1991) · Journal of Range Management · doi:10.2307/4002738 · Cited by 584 · see citing works
Rain use efficiency: a unifying concept in arid-land ecology
Houérou, H. N. L. (1984) · Journal of Arid Environments · doi:10.1016/s0140-1963(18)31362-4 · Cited by 546 · see citing works
Avoiding dangerous climate change
Challinor, A. J., Wheeler, T., Osborne, T., & Slingo, J. M. (2006) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · Cited by 533 · see citing works
Farmer adaptation, change and ‘crisis’ in the Sahel
Mortimore, M. J., & Adams, W. M. (2001) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/s0959-3780(00)00044-3 · Cited by 471 · see citing works
Rangelands at equilibrium and non-equilibrium: recent developments in the debate
Vetter, S. (2005) · Journal of Arid Environments · doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2004.11.015 · Cited by 470 · see citing works
Houérou, H. N. L., Bingham, R. L., & Skerbek, W. (1988) · Journal of Arid Environments · doi:10.1016/s0140-1963(18)31001-2 · Cited by 443 · see citing works
Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries
Held, I. M., Delworth, T. L., Lü, J., Findell, K. L., & Knutson, T. R. (2005) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0509057102 · Cited by 440 · see citing works
Range Condition Assessment and the Concept of Thresholds: A Viewpoint
Friedel, M. H. (1991) · Journal of Range Management · doi:10.2307/4002737 · Cited by 402 · see citing works
Vegetation dynamics on rangelands: a critique of the current paradigms
Briske, D. D., Fuhlendorf, S. D., & Smeins, F. E. (2003) · Journal of Applied Ecology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2664.2003.00837.x · Cited by 392 · see citing works
Influence of precipitation and species composition on phytomass of a semi‐arid African grassland
O'Connor, T. G., Haines, L. M., & Snyman, H. A. (2001) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1046/j.0022-0477.2001.00605.x · Cited by 268 · see citing works
The Sahel of Africa: ecology of a disaster
SINCLAIR, A. R. E., & Fryxell, J. M. (1985) · Canadian Journal of Zoology · doi:10.1139/z85-147 · Cited by 263 · see citing works
Leemans, R., & Eickhout, B. (2004) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.04.009 · Cited by 259 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Grazing Land Ecosystems of the African Sahel
Houérou, H. N. L. (1989) · Ecological studies · doi:10.1007/978-3-642-74457-0 · Cited by 220 · see citing works
Zeng, N. (2003) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1090849 · Cited by 211 · see citing works
Spatial Heterogeneity and Irreversible Vegetation Change in Semiarid Grazing Systems
van de Koppel, J., Rietkerk, M., van Langevelde, F., Kumar, L., Klausmeier, C. A., Fryxell, J. M., Hearne, J., van Andel, J., de Ridder, N., Skidmore, A. K., et al. (2002) · The American Naturalist · doi:10.1086/324791 · Cited by 191 · see citing works
Ruosteenoja, K., Carter, T. R., Jylhä, K., & Tuomenvirta, H. (2003) · Työväentutkimus Vuosikirja · Cited by 189 · see citing works
Risk analysis in dryland farming systems
Anderson, J. R., & Dillon, J. L. (1992) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 187 · see citing works
The grazing land ecosystems of the African Sahel
Houérou, H. N. L. (1990) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.27-5762 · Cited by 175 · see citing works
Desertification in the Sahel: a reinterpretation
Hein, L., & de Ridder, N. (2006) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01135.x · Cited by 175 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change and world food supply, demand and trade
Fischer, G., Frohberg, K., Parry, M. L., & Rosenzweig, C. E. (1994) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/0959-3780(94)90018-3 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Livestock Market Dynamics and Local Vulnerabilities in the Sahel
Turner, M. D., & Williams, T. O. (2002) · World Development · doi:10.1016/s0305-750x(01)00133-4 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
The Grazing Land Ecosystems of the African Sahel
Scarnecchia, D. L., & Houérou, H. N. L. (1991) · Journal of Range Management · doi:10.2307/4003052 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
The concept of rangeland carrying capacity in sub-Saharan Africa - myth or reality.
de Leeuw, P. N., & Tothill, J. C. (1990) · Cited by 100 · see citing works
Manual sur les pâturages des pays sahéliens.
Breman, H., & de Ridder, N. (1991) · Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling · Cited by 86 · see citing works
The Impacts of Grazing and Rainfall Variability on the Dynamics of a Sahelian Rangeland
Hein, L. (2006) · Journal of Arid Environments · doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2005.06.014 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Self-citationContinuity and Change in Pastoral Livelihoods of Senegalese Fulani
Adriansen, H. K. (2006) · Agriculture and Human Values · doi:10.1007/s10460-005-6108-3 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Sutter, J. W. (1987) · Africa · doi:10.2307/1159821 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Some Issues in Dealing with Risk in AgriculturePreprint
Hardaker, J. B., & Hardaker, J. B. (2000) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · doi:10.22004/ag.econ.12912 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Analyzing and Addressing Localized Degradation in the Commons
McPeak, J. G. (2003) · Land Economics · doi:10.2307/3147297 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Going Where the Grass Is Greener: On the Study of Pastoral Mobility in Ferlo, Senegal
Adriansen, H. K., & Nielsen, T. T. (2002) · Human Ecology · doi:10.1023/a:1015692730088 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Turner, M. D. (1999) · Journal of Arid Environments · doi:10.1006/jare.1998.0485 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Manuel sur les pâturages tropicaux et les cultures fourragères
Boudet, G. (1975) · Agritrop (Cirad) · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Social resilience as a controlling influence on desertification in Senegal
Bradley, D., & Grainger, A. (2004) · Land Degradation and Development · doi:10.1002/ldr.628 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Spatial Heterogeneity and Irreversible Vegetation Change in Semiarid Grazing Systems
van de Koppel, Rietkerk, M., van Langevelde, F., Kumar, Klausmeier, Fryxell, Hearne, van Andel, de Ridder, Skidmore, et al. (2002) · The American Naturalist · doi:10.2307/3078978 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Grazing Production Curves. I. Comparison of Steer Gains on Gulf Ryegrass and Tall Fescue1
Riewe, M. E., Smith, J. C., Jones, J. H., & Holt, E. C. (1963) · Agronomy Journal · doi:10.2134/agronj1963.00021962005500040020x · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Grazing Production Curves. II. Determining the Economic Optimum Stocking Rate1
Hildreth, R. J., & Riewe, M. E. (1963) · Agronomy Journal · doi:10.2134/agronj1963.00021962005500040021x · Cited by 21 · see citing works
On the Choice Between the Stocking Rate and Time in Range Management
Batabyal, A. A., Biswas, B., & Godfrey, E. B. (2001) · Environmental and Resource Economics · doi:10.1023/a:1012647003818 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Guérin, H., Friot, D., Mbaye, N., & Richard, D. (1987) · Agritrop (Cirad) · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Enquête sénégalaise auprès des ménages, E.S.A.M. : mars 1994-mai 1995 : rapport de synthèse
de la statistique, S. D. D. L. P. E. (1997) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Managing stochastic dynamic rangelands: livestock grazing in a Sahelian rangeland
Hein, L., & Weikard, H. (2004) · Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
1 of the 50 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- IMF (1999) Press Release No. 99/29, Annex: programme summary Senegal enhanced structural adjustment facility. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC IPCC (2007a) Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I., II and III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland
- IPCC (2007b) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions
Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Hare, W., Schaeffer, M., Perrette, M., & Reinhardt, J. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0910-2 · Cited by 1,037 · see citing works
Climate Change and Social Inequality
Islam, M. N., & Winkel, J. (2017) · DESA Working paper · doi:10.18356/2c62335d-en · Cited by 267 · see citing works
Crane, T., Roncoli, C., & Hoogenboom, G. (2011) · NJAS - Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.njas.2010.11.002 · Cited by 239 · see citing works
Climate change and poverty in Africa
Hope, K. (2009) · International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology · doi:10.1080/13504500903354424 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Anderson, W., Taylor, C., McDermid, S., Nébié, E. K. I., Seager, R., Schlenker, W., Cottier, F., de Sherbinin, A., Mendeloff, D., & Markey, K. (2021) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00327-4 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife.
Balsari, S., Dresser, C., & Leaning, J. (2020) · Current Environmental Health Reports · doi:10.1007/s40572-020-00291-4 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Climate Change, Adaptive Strategies and Rural Livelihoods in Semiarid Tanzania
Kangalawe, R. Y. M., & Lyimo, J. G. (2013) · Natural Resources · doi:10.4236/nr.2013.43034 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Hein, L., de Ridder, N., Hiernaux, P., Leemans, R., de Wit, A. J. W., & Schaepman, M. E. (2011) · Journal of Arid Environments · doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2011.05.002 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Self-citationHerrera‐Pantoja, M., & Hiscock, K. M. (2015) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2015.06.020 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Chapman, S., Mustin, K., Renwick, A. R., Segan, D. B., Hole, D. G., Pearson, R. G., & Watson, J. E. M. (2014) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.12234 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Sustainable improvement of animal production and health.
Odongo, N. E., García, M. A., & Viljoen, G. J. (2010) · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Climate Change and Urban Migration in Sub-Saharan African Cities: Impacts and Governance Challenges
Tietjen, B., Jacobsen, K., & Hollander, J. B. (2023) · Journal of Climate Resilience and Justice · doi:10.1162/crcj_a_00009 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification
Soteriades, A. D., Murray-Rust, D., Trabucco, A., & Metzger, M. J. (2017) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7689 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate change and urban development in Africa
Hope, S. K. R. (2009) · International Journal of Environmental Studies · doi:10.1080/00207230903367955 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
The Challenge of a 4°C World by 2100
Schellnhuber, H. J., Serdeczny, O. M., Adams, S., Köhler, C., Otto, I. M., & Schleussner, C. (2016) · Hexagon series on human and environmental security and peace · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-43884-9_11 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Mandleni, B. (2011) · Unisa Institutional Repository (University of South Africa) · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Impacts of climate change on agriculture in Senegal: A systematic review
Ahmed, A., Suleiman, M., Abubakar, M. J., & Saleh, A. (2021) · Journal of Sustainability Environment and Peace · doi:10.53537/jsep.2021.09.004 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Gahi, N. Z., Dongo, K., & Badolo, M. (2015) · Climate · doi:10.3390/cli3041057 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Climate Change in the Context of Urban Development in Africa
Hope, K. R. (2010) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-90-481-9867-2_3 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Kiss, E., Balla, D., & Kovács, A. D. (2022) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su14095138 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Why Livelihoods Matter in the Gendering of Household Water Insecurity
Nébié, E. K. I., Brewis, A., Wutich, A., Pérenne, Y., & Magassa, K. (2024) · Weather Climate and Society · doi:10.1175/wcas-d-22-0105.1 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Paúl, M. J., Layna, J. F., Monterroso, P., & Álvares, F. (2020) · Diversity · doi:10.3390/d12120477 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Koutika, L., Henry, B. K., Schepp, C., OLALEYE, A. O., Amiraslani, F., Minasny, B., Ma, Y., Ladha, J. K., Cardinael, R., Bossio, D., et al. (2025) · Soil Advances · doi:10.1016/j.soilad.2025.100057 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Climate Change Impacts on Animal Production
Jasrotia, R., Dhar, M., & Langer, S. (2022) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-14973-3_11 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Crane, T. (2013) · Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Valuing Environmental Benefit Streams in the Dryland Ecosystems of Sub-Saharan Africa
King‐Okumu, C. (2018) · Land · doi:10.3390/land7040142 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Analytics, C. (2013) · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Climate Change: Greenhouse Gas Emission in Rice Farming and Mitigation Options
Bhattacharyya, P., Ak, N., Raja, R., & Ks, R. (2012) · ICAR-NRRI eBooks · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Aich, A., Dey, D., Dey, M., Sarkar, U. G., & Roy, A. (2023) · APN Science Bulletin · doi:10.30852/sb.2023.2188 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Spatio-temporal frequent pattern mining for public safety: concepts and techniques
Shekhar, S., & Mohan, P. (2012)
Rainfall and flow variation in Câlnău’s watershed.
GIURGIU, D.-A. (2017) · Aerul şi apa, componente ale mediului · doi:10.24193/awc2017_25
Hein, L. (2010) · Edward Elgar Publishing eBooks · doi:10.4337/9781849806770.00012
Self-citationSarr, M. A., Diop, L., Faye, G., Diouf, A. A., Mayer, T. J., Bhandari, B., Traoré, P. S., Samb, F., & Samba Guorgui, M. A. N. E. (2026) · Environmental Research Communications · doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ae6e1f
- Authors
- Hein, L., Metzger, M. J., & Leemans, R.
- Affiliations
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Hein, Lars
- Venue
- Climatic Change
- Published
- 2008-10-10
- Volume
- 93
- Issue
- 3-4
- Pages
- 465-483
- ISSN
- 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-1480
- OpenAlex
- W2131959493
- Cited by
- 34
- References
- 50
- Citations by year
- 2026: 1 · 2025: 1 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 2 · 2022: 2 · 2021: 2 · 2020: 2 · 2018: 1 · 2017: 3 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 2 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 3 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 12.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by-nc
- Locations
- Climatic Change (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- climate change impacts, Sahel, Ferlo, rainfall variability, rainfall decline, grazing, livestock prices, pastoralism, local income, ecosystem productivity, climate change adaptation, destocking, stocking rate, ecological-economic model, natural resource dependence
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
