Effective Communication of Uncertainty in the IPCC Reports
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People generally interpreted the IPCC's categorical description of probabilities as less likely than the IPCC intended.
“They found that people generally interpreted the IPCC's categorical description of probabilities as less likely than the IPCC intended.”
From Uncertainty as a Form of Transparency: Measuring, Communicating, and Using Uncertainty (2021) · cites this paper as [16]
People took the word 'very likely' as indicating a probability of around 60%, whereas the IPCC's guideline specifies that it indicates a greater than 90% probability.
“people took the word”
From Uncertainty as a Form of Transparency: Measuring, Communicating, and Using Uncertainty (2021) · cites this paper as [16]
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“Many studies have appeared in recent times about effective communication of uncertainties to policy makers, often focussing on the language used (Maslin, 2013; Budescu et al., 2011; Sterman, 2011).”
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“Research has shown that presenting the numerical probabilities alongside verbal expressions of probability, e.g. ‘Likely (> 66% probability)’, increases the consistency of interpretation (Budescu et al., 2012, 2014).”
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“Consistent with Budescu, Por, and Broomell (2012) and Leung et al. (2015), there is a need for uncertainty information to be documented in a way that can be easily and effectively transmitted to decision makers, the public, and other stakeholders but also in a way that facilitates depth in…”
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“The findings indicate that it could be difficult to standardize what likelihood terms such as “very likely” actually mean, unless those likelihood terms are presented together with the equivalent intervals such as “very likely (66–100%)” (Budescu et al. 2011; Budescu et al. 2014).”
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“That the ‘extremity effect’ continued to occur in the V-N format is of particular relevance to current literature, given recent recommendations to use a mixed format approach to express uncertainty (Budescu et al., 2009, 2012, 2014; Patt & Dessai, 2005; Witteman & Renooij, 2003).”
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“…(Goebbert et al. 2012; Howe and Leiserowitz 2013; Myers et al. 2013) as a special case of motivated cognition in interpreting ambiguous evidence (Nickerson 1998; Kunda 1990; Lewandowsky et al. 2013, Budescu et al. 2012; Unauthenticated | Downloaded 04/28/21 01:04 PM UTC McCright and Dunlap 2011).”
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“…2013, Jones, 2013, Freudenburg and Muselli, 2013, Brysse et al., 2013, Betz, 2013), and also about the confidence expressed in its conclusions (Budescu et al., 2012, Budescu et al., 2009, Curry and Webster, 2013, Moss and Schneider, 2000, Narita, 2012, Risbey and Kandlikar, 2007, Smithson et…”
Juanchich, M., Teigen, K., & Gourdon, A. (2013) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.1017/s193029750000601x · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Sirota, M., & Juanchich, M. (2012) · Acta Psychologica · doi:10.1016/j.actpsy.2012.09.004 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Storylines for Global Hydrologic Drought Within CMIP6
Bjarke, N., Livneh, B., & Barsugli, J. (2024) · Earth's Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef004117 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
“This analysis is unique in that it addresses the need consider concomitant changes to hydrologic drought features and surface water availability (Budescu et al., 2012; Shepherd & Lloyd, 2021), while focusing on identifying the likelihood storylines that could potentially stress water resource…”
BackgroundWinners and losers: communicating the potential impacts of policies
Brick, C., Freeman, A., Wooding, S., Skylark, W., Marteau, T., & Spiegelhalter, D. (2018) · Palgrave Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-018-0121-9 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Griffioen, A. M., van Beek, J. V., Lindhout, S. N., & Handgraaf, M. (2016) · Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce · doi:10.19041/apstract/2016/2-3/4 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Communicating forecasts: The simplicity of simulated experience
Hogarth, R., & Soyer, E. (2015) · Journal of Business Research · doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.039 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Climate change discourse: scientific claims in a policy setting
Fløttum, K., & Dahl, T. (2011) · doi:10.24989/fs.v33i3-4.1372 · Cited by 23
Communicating and reasoning with verbal probability expressions
Collins, P. J., & Hahn, U. (2018) · The Psychology of learning and motivation/The psychology of learning and motivation · doi:10.1016/bs.plm.2018.10.003 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Mandel, D. R., & Irwin, D. (2020) · Judgment and Decision Making · doi:10.31234/osf.io/hm7zu · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Anchoring climate change communications
Harris, A., Por, H.-H., & Broomell, S. B. (2017) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1859-y · Cited by 21 · see citing works
“Budescu and colleagues (Budescu et al. 2009, 2012, 2014) have additionally shown that the correspondence between interpretations and the IPCC’s guidelines can be further increased with the use of a joint (verbal-numerical) presentation format.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationRipberger, J., Bell, A., Fox, A., Forney, A., Livingston, W., Gaddie, C., Silva, C. L., & JENKINS-SMITHa, H. (2022) · Weather, Climate, and Society · doi:10.1175/wcas-d-21-0034.1 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Combining probability with qualitative degree-of-certainty metrics in assessment
Helgeson, C., Bradley, R., & Hill, B. (2018) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2247-6 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Towards an evidence-based approach to communicating uncertainty in intelligence analysis
Dhami, M. K. (2018) · Intelligence & National Security · doi:10.1080/02684527.2017.1394252 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Cry Wolf or Equivocate? Credible Forecast Guidance in a Cost-Loss Game
Bolton, G. E., & Katok, E. (2017) · Management Sciences · doi:10.1287/mnsc.2016.2645 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Chen, M., Wang, J.-L., & Yin, Z. (2024) · Science communication · doi:10.1177/10755470231222500 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
“Therefore, people with a high level of hypothetical distance perceive a great extent of uncertainty regarding its occurrence and its potential adverse effects, and thereby may falsely underestimate the probability of its occurrence (Budescu et al., 2012).”
BackgroundKause, A., de Bruin, W. B., Fung, F., Taylor, A. L., & Lowe, J. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12072955 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
“In addition, presenting uncertainty in climate information may delay public action on climate change [21], promote a “wait-and-see” approach [22], or increase public polarization about climate change [23].”
BackgroundDoyle, E., Thompson, J., Hill, S., Williams, M., Paton, D., Harrison, S., Bostrom, A., & Becker, J. (2023) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103948 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
The impact of psychological distance to climate change and urban informality on adaptation planning
Rana, I., Arshad, H. S. H., Jamshed, A., Khalid, Z., Younas, Z., Bhatti, S. S., & Ahmad, J. (2023) · Urban Climate · doi:10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101460 · Cited by 18
“Additionally, as psychological distance is associated with whether an event is perceived as abstract or concrete (Wang et al., 2019), it can lead individuals to misinterpret climate predictions and analyze them incorrectly (Budescu et al., 2012).”
Lenhardt, E. D., Cross, R. N., Krocak, M. J., Ripberger, J., Ernst, S. R., Silva, C. L., & Jenkins, H. (2020) · Journal of Operational Meteorology · doi:10.15191/nwajom.2020.0805 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Quantifying the qualities of language
Hancock, P. A., & Volante, W. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0232198 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
“Misinterpretations are then viewed as leading even to existential threats [33,34].”
BackgroundLewis, S. C., King, A. D., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., & Wehner, M. F. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2019ef001273 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
“Interpretations of statements about climate change are also dependent on people's ideologies, and their prior views and beliefs about climate change issues (see Budescu et al., 2012, 2014; Kahan et al., 2012).”
Background
- Authors
- Budescu, D. V., Por, H.-H., & Broomell, S. B.
- Affiliations
- Fordham University (US)
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Budescu, David V.
- Venue
- Climatic Change
- Published
- 2011-11-23
- Volume
- 113
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 181-200
- ISSN
- 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-1480
- OpenAlex
- W1994500457
- Cited by
- 261
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 10 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 15 · 2021: 22 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 56 · 2018: 17 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 8 · 2015: 20 · 2014: 17 · 2013: 8 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 30.03
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Climatic Change (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- uncertainty communication, IPCC reports, regression to the mean, individual differences, political ideology, climate change beliefs, science communication
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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