“How Probable is Probable? A Numerical Translation of Verbal Probability Expressions.”
Abstract
Abstract The reported experiment took place in a professional forecasting organization accustomed to giving verbal probability assessments (‘likely’, ‘probable’, etc.). It attempts to highlight the communication problems caused by verbal probability expressions and to offer possible solutions that are compatible with the forecasters overall perspective on their jobs Experts in the organization were first asked to give a numerical translation to 30 different verbal probability expressions most of which were taken from the organization's own published political forecasts. In a second part of the experiment the experts were given 15 paragraphs selected from the organization's political publications each of which contained at least one verbal expression of probability. Subjects were again asked to give a numerical translation to each verbal probability expression The results indicate that (a) there is a high variability in the interpretation of verbal probability expressions and (b) the variability is even higher in context. Possible reasons for the context effect are discussed and practical implications are suggested.
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When analysts use terms like high confidence, there is no reliable way to know whether they mean probabilities closer to 70 percent or to 90 percent.
“When analysts use terms like”
From The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament (2018) · cites this paper as Beyth-Merom 1982
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- Authors
- Beyth‐Marom, R.
- Corresponding author
- Beyth‐Marom, Ruth
- Venue
- Journal of Forecasting
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 1982-07
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 257-269
- ISSN
- 0277-6693 (ISSN-L)
- 1099-131X
- OpenAlex
- W2004776030
- Cited by
- 527
- References
- 9
- Citations by year
- 2026: 7 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 8 · 2020: 12 · 2019: 63 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 11 · 2016: 15 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 12 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 11
- FWCI
- 6.32
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Forecasting (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Office of Naval Research
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Categorization, perception, and language
- Keywords
- verbal probability expressions, probability communication, political forecasting, expert opinion, context effects
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