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Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

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Lelieveld, J., Proestos, Y., Hadjinicolaou, P., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., Zittis, G.·2016·Climatic Change

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Abstract

The ensemble results of CMIP5 climate models that applied the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used to investigate climate change and temperature extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Uncertainty evaluation of climate projections indicates good model agreement for temperature but much less for precipitation. Results imply that climate warming in the MENA is strongest in summer while elsewhere it is typically stronger in winter. The summertime warming extends the thermal low at the surface from South Asia across the Middle East over North Africa, as the hot desert climate intensifies and becomes more extreme. Observations and model calculations of the recent past consistently show increasing heat extremes, which are projected to accelerate in future. The number of warm days and nights may increase sharply. On average in the MENA, the maximum temperature during the hottest days in the recent past was about 43 °C, which could increase to about 46 °C by the middle of the century and reach almost 50 °C by the end of the century, the latter according to the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual) scenario. This will have important consequences for human health and society.

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Authors: Lelieveld, J., Proestos, Y., Hadjinicolaou, P., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., & Zittis, G.
Affiliations: Cyprus Institute (CY)
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (DE)
Corresponding author: Lelieveld, J.
ORCID: Lelieveld, J.
Proestos, Y.
Hadjinicolaou, P.
Tanarhte, M.
Tyrlis, E.
Zittis, G.
Venue: Climatic Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2016-04-23
Volume: 137
Issue: 1-2
Pages: 245-260
ISSN: 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
1573-1480
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
OpenAlex: W2337173660
Cited by: 483
References: 68
Citations by year: 2026: 57 · 2025: 45 · 2024: 47 · 2023: 40 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 59 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 33 · 2016: 14
FWCI: 28.92
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: hybrid
doi.org
Licence: cc-by
creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0 (unspecified)
Locations: Climatic Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
Keywords: extreme heat, temperature extremes, climate change projections, Middle East and North Africa, CMIP5, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, warm days and nights, maximum temperature, desert climate, thermal low, precipitation uncertainty, summer warming, human health effects

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Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

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