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Cited by 483Climate variability and modelsClimate Change and Environmental ImpactClimate Change and Health Impacts

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 68 of the 68 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

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Lelieveld, J., Proestos, Y., Hadjinicolaou, P., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., Zittis, G.·2016·Climatic Change
DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
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Abstract

The ensemble results of CMIP5 climate models that applied the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have been used to investigate climate change and temperature extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Uncertainty evaluation of climate projections indicates good model agreement for temperature but much less for precipitation. Results imply that climate warming in the MENA is strongest in summer while elsewhere it is typically stronger in winter. The summertime warming extends the thermal low at the surface from South Asia across the Middle East over North Africa, as the hot desert climate intensifies and becomes more extreme. Observations and model calculations of the recent past consistently show increasing heat extremes, which are projected to accelerate in future. The number of warm days and nights may increase sharply. On average in the MENA, the maximum temperature during the hottest days in the recent past was about 43 °C, which could increase to about 46 °C by the middle of the century and reach almost 50 °C by the end of the century, the latter according to the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual) scenario. This will have important consequences for human health and society.

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Research works printed but not linked: 3

  1. IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Stocker TF et al. (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp
  2. IPCC (2014) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. part b: regional aspects. contribution of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Barros VR et al. (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 688 pp
  3. Piguet E, Pécoud A, de Guchteneire P (2010) Migration and climate change: an overview. centre on migration, policy and society, report 79, University of Oxford

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Metadata

Authors
Lelieveld, J., Proestos, Y., Hadjinicolaou, P., Tanarhte, M., Tyrlis, E., & Zittis, G.
Affiliations
  • Cyprus Institute (CY)
  • Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (DE)
Corresponding author
Lelieveld, J.
ORCID
Venue
Climatic Change
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2016-04-23
Volume
137
Issue
1-2
Pages
245-260
ISSN
  • 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
  • 1573-1480
DOI
10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
OpenAlex
W2337173660
Cited by
483
References
68
Citations by year
2026: 57 · 2025: 45 · 2024: 47 · 2023: 40 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 67 · 2020: 59 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 33 · 2016: 14
FWCI
28.92
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Climatic Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
Keywords
extreme heat, temperature extremes, climate change projections, Middle East and North Africa, CMIP5, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, warm days and nights, maximum temperature, desert climate, thermal low, precipitation uncertainty, summer warming, human health effects

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