Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: exploring nonlinearities and thresholds
Open accessAbstract
Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961-1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Previous literature has found that climatic changes increase rural-to-urban migration.
“Importantly, this finding contrasts previous literature which has found that climatic changes increase rural-to-urban migration (Ahsan et al., 2011; Barrios et al., 2006; Nawrotzki et al., 2017).”
From Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Nawrotzki et al., 2017
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Estimating the Dimension of a Model
Schwarz, G. (1978) · The Annals of Statistics · doi:10.1214/aos/1176344136 · Cited by 47,033 · see citing works
ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis
Wickham, H. (2009) · doi:10.1007/978-0-387-98141-3 · Cited by 14,447 · see citing works
Applied Longitudinal Data Analysis: Modeling Change and Event Occurrence
Singer, J. D., & Willett, J. B. (2003) · doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195152968.001.0001 · Cited by 10,647 · see citing works
Bayesian model selection in social research
Raftery, A. E. (1995) · Sociological Methodology · doi:10.2307/271063 · Cited by 6,823 · see citing works
Updated high‐resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3 .10 Dataset
Harris, I. C., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., & Lister, D. (2013) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.3711 · Cited by 6,121 · see citing works
Adger, W. N. (2006) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006 · Cited by 5,417 · see citing works
Sustainable Rural Livelihoods: A Framework for Analysis
Scoones, I. (1998) · OpenDocs (Institute of Development Studies) · Cited by 3,118 · see citing works
The new economics of labor migration
Stark, O., & Bloom, D. E. (1985) · American Economic Review · Cited by 2,067 · see citing works
What's Driving Mexico-U.S. Migration? A Theoretical, Empirical, and Policy Analysis
Massey, D. S., & Espinosa, K. E. (1997) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/231037 · Cited by 1,264 · see citing works
Hsiang, S. M. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1009510107 · Cited by 992 · see citing works
Cooper, P. J. M., Dimes, J., Rao, K. P. C., Shapiro, B. I., Shiferaw, B. A., & Twomlow, S. J. (2008) · Agriculture Ecosystems & Environment · doi:10.1016/j.agee.2008.01.007 · Cited by 870 · see citing works
Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences
Rand, G. K. (1983) · Journal of the Operational Research Society · doi:10.1057/jors.1983.225 · Cited by 841 · see citing works
A new map of global urban extent from MODIS satellite data
Schneider, A., Friedl, M. A., & Potere, D. (2009) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044003 · Cited by 833 · see citing works
Temperatures and the growth and development of maize and rice: a review
Sánchez, B., Rasmussen, A. M. H., & Porter, J. R. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12389 · Cited by 764 · see citing works
Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility Pages 1029 to 1076
Change, I. P. O. C. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415324.024 · Cited by 689 · see citing works
Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan
Mueller, V., Gray, C., & Kosec, K. (2014) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2103 · Cited by 479 · see citing works
A new urban landscape in East–Southeast Asia, 2000–2010
Schneider, A., Mertes, C., Tatem, A. J., Tan, B., Sulla‐Menashe, D., Graves, S., Patel, N. N., Horton, J. A., Gaughan, A. E., Rollo, J., et al. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/034002 · Cited by 456 · see citing works
Environmental dimensions of migration
Hunter, L. M., Luna, J. K., & Norton, R. M. (2015) · Annual Review of Sociology · doi:10.1146/annurev-soc-073014-112223 · Cited by 449 · see citing works
Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters
Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M., & Hsiang, S. M. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1317166111 · Cited by 434 · see citing works
Understanding Mexican Migration to the United States
Massey, D. S. (1987) · American Journal of Sociology · doi:10.1086/228669 · Cited by 392 · see citing works
Bardsley, D. K., & Hugo, G. J. (2010) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-010-0126-9 · Cited by 372 · see citing works
Leveraging Migration for Africa: Remittances, Skills, and Investments
Ratha, D., Mohapatra, S., Özden, Ç., Plaza, S., Shaw, W., & Shimeles, A. (2011) · Cited by 258 · see citing works
Country-specific effects of climate variability on human migration
Gray, C., & Wise, E. K. (2016) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1592-y · Cited by 213 · see citing works
Environmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador
Gray, C., & Bilsborrow, R. E. (2013) · Demography · doi:10.1007/s13524-012-0192-y · Cited by 206 · see citing works
Migratory Responses to Agricultural Risk in Northern Nigeria
Dillon, A., Mueller, V., & Salau, S. (2011) · American Journal of Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1093/ajae/aar033 · Cited by 204 · see citing works
Rogers, A. J., & Castro, L. J. (1981) · IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) · Cited by 204 · see citing works
The case for distributed irrigation as a development priority in sub-Saharan Africa
Burney, J. A., Naylor, R. L., & Postel, S. L. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1203597110 · Cited by 194 · see citing works
Migrant destinations in an era of environmental change
Findlay, A. M. (2011) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.004 · Cited by 182 · see citing works
Rainfall Patterns and U.S. Migration from Rural Mexico
Hunter, L. M., Murray, S., & Riosmena, F. (2013) · International Migration Review · doi:10.1111/imre.12051 · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Nawrotzki, R. J., Riosmena, F., & Hunter, L. M. (2013) · Population Research and Policy Review · doi:10.1007/s11113-012-9251-8 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
Self-citationLeveraging Migration for Africa: Remittances, Skills, and Investments
Ratha, D., Mohapatra, S., Ozden, C., Plaza, S., Shaw, W., & Shimeles, A. (2011) · doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-8257-8 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Romero‐Lankao, P. (2010) · Environment and Urbanization · doi:10.1177/0956247809362636 · Cited by 132 · see citing works
Projections of Future Drought in the Continental United States and Mexico
Wehner, M. F., Easterling, D. R., Lawrimore, J. H., Heim, R. R., Vose, R. S., & Santer, B. D. (2011) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/2011jhm1351.1 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Climate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico
Nawrotzki, R., Hunter, L. M., Runfola, D. M., & Riosmena, F. (2015) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114023 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate Change and Migration: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa
Wodon, Q. T., Liverani, A., Joseph, G., & Bougnoux, N. (2014) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2 · Cited by 115 · see citing works
Nawrotzki, R., & Bakhtsiyarava, M. (2016) · Population Space and Place · doi:10.1002/psp.2033 · Cited by 115 · see citing works
Self-citationHow well do reanalyses represent the southern African precipitation?
Zhang, Q., Körnich, H., & Holmgren, K. (2012) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1423-z · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Assets, activities and income generation in rural Mexico: factoring in social and public capital⋆
Winters, P., Davis, B., & Corral, L. (2002) · Agricultural Economics · doi:10.1111/j.1574-0862.2002.tb00112.x · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Mercer, K. L., Perales, H., & Wainwright, J. D. (2012) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.01.003 · Cited by 100 · see citing works
Climate shocks and the timing of migration from Mexico
Nawrotzki, R., & DeWaard, J. (2016) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-016-0255-x · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Self-citationEnvironmental migration and cities in the context of global environmental change
Adamo, S. B. (2010) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2010.06.005 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
Nawrotzki, R., Riosmena, F., Hunter, L. M., & Runfola, D. M. (2015) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.09.002 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Self-citationConde, C., Ferrer, R. M., & Orozco, S. M. (2006) · LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Who moves and who stays? Rural out-migration in Nigeria
Mberu, B. U. (2005) · Journal of Population Research · doi:10.1007/bf03031826 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Applying statistical models to the climate–migration relationship
Feng, S., & Oppenheimer, M. (2012) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1212226109 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Mendelsohn, R. O. (2007) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-005-9009-y · Cited by 42 · see citing works
den Berg, H. F. V., & Bodvarsson, Ö. B. (2009) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-540-77796-0 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
DISCUSSION - Agricultural Policy Reform and Rural Livelihoods in Central Mexico
Wiggins, S. L., Nm, K., Preibisch, K., Proctor, S., Herrejón, G. R., & Muñoz, G. R. (2002) · The Journal of Development Studies · doi:10.1080/00220380412331322461 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Kugler, T. A., Riper, D. C. V., Manson, S. M., Haynes, D., Donato, J. R., & Stinebaugh, K. (2015) · Journal of Map & Geography Libraries · doi:10.1080/15420353.2015.1036484 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
The Effect of Rainfall on Migration from Mexico to the United States
Puente, G. B., Pérez-Soto, F., & Gitter, R. J. (2015) · International Migration Review · doi:10.1111/imre.12116 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Internal and international migration in Mexico: 1995–2000
Aguayo‐Tellez, E., & Martínez-Navarro, J. (2012) · Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/00036846.2011.633894 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Migration and Land Rental as Responses to Income Shocks in Rural C hina
Ward, P. S., & Shively, G. E. (2015) · Pacific Economic Review · doi:10.1111/1468-0106.12072 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Agricultural and Resource Economics UpdatePreprint
Lee, H., Sumner, D. A., Martin, P. A., Hochman, G., Rajagopal, D., & Zilberman, D. (2012) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 21 · see citing works
The Influence of Internal Migration on Exposure to Extreme Weather Events in Mexico
Runfola, D. M., Romero‐Lankao, P., Jiang, L., Hunter, L. M., Nawrotzki, R., & Sánchez, L. A. (2015) · Society & Natural Resources · doi:10.1080/08941920.2015.1076918 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationIs Climate Change Likely to Lead to Higher Net Internal Migration?: The Republic of Yemen’s Case
Joseph, G., Wodon, Q. T., Liverani, A., & Blankespoor, B. A. (2014) · World Bank, Washington, DC eBooks · doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-9971-2_ch9 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: Mexico
McSweeney, C., New, M., & Lizcano, G. (2006) · University of North Texas Digital Library (University of North Texas) · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Mexicans Are Leaving Farm Work: What Does It Mean for U.S. Agriculture and Immigration Policy?
Charlton, D. E., & Taylor, J. E. (2013) · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Climatic change and rural–urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa
Barrios, S., Bertinelli, L., & Strobl, E. (2006) · Journal of Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.jue.2006.04.005 · cited 1×
“Importantly, this dynamic is often reflected in rural-urban migration (Barrios et al. 2006; Mberu 2005) because metropolitan areas tend to offer employment in more diverse and less climate-sensitive labor markets, not to mention higher wages.”
Background
Flagged first, then by citations
2 of the 61 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- IPCC Field CB Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014 1 32 Cambridge University Press New York
- McLeman R Opatowski M Borova B Walton-Roberts M Laurier US Embassy workshop on environmental migration and displacement: Workshop report 2016 Balsillie School of International Affairs Waterloo, Canada
- Romero-Lankao P Barros VR North America. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014 1439 1498 Cambridge University Press New York
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157964.012 · Cited by 861 · see citing works
Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2022) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009157964.006 · Cited by 387 · see citing works
Thresholds in climate migration
McLeman, R. A. (2017) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-017-0290-2 · Cited by 246 · see citing works
Poverty, Livelihoods and Sustainable Development
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009325844.010 · Cited by 216 · see citing works
Putting trapped populations into place: climate change and inter-district migration flows in Zambia
Nawrotzki, R., & DeWaard, J. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1224-3 · Cited by 175 · see citing works
Self-citationWho are the climate migrants and where do they go? Evidence from rural India
Šedová, B., & Kalkuhl, M. (2020) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104848 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Climate Variability and Child Nutrition: Findings from Sub-Saharan Africa
Thiede, B. C., & Strube, J. (2019) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102192 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Petersen-Rockney, M., Baur, P., Guzman, A., Bender, S. F., Calo, A. J., Castillo, F., Master, K. D., Dumont, A. M., Esquivel, K., Kremen, C., et al. (2021) · Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems · doi:10.3389/fsufs.2021.564900 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Adams, H., & Kay, S. (2019) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2018.10.015 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Climate change, slow onset events and human mobility: reviewing the evidence
Zickgraf, C. (2021) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2020.11.007 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Climate change-induced migration: a bibliometric review
García, J. M., Caparrós-Martínez, J. L., López, N. R., & Valenciano, J. D. P. (2021) · Globalization and Health · doi:10.1186/s12992-021-00722-3 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Climate anomalies, land degradation, and rural out-migration in Uganda
Call, M., & Gray, C. (2020) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-020-00349-3 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
Climate, Birth Weight, and Agricultural Livelihoods in Kenya and Mali
Bakhtsiyarava, M., Grace, K. L., & Nawrotzki, R. (2017) · American Journal of Public Health · doi:10.2105/ajph.2017.304128 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Self-citationNiva, V., Taka, M., & Varis, O. (2019) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su11123487 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Drought and aridity influence internal migration worldwide
Hoffmann, R., Abel, G., Malpede, M., Muttarak, R., & Percoco, M. (2024) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02165-1 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Winkler, R. L., & Rouleau, M. D. (2020) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-020-00364-4 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Exploring the Factors of Farmers’ Rural–Urban Migration Decisions in Bangladesh
Al-Maruf, A., Pervez, A. K. M. K., Sarker, P. K., Rahman, M. S., & Ruiz‐Menjivar, J. (2022) · Agriculture · doi:10.3390/agriculture12050722 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Climate change and migration: A review and new framework for analysis
Daoust, G. D., & Selby, J. (2024) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change · doi:10.1002/wcc.886 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Climatic factors as drivers of migration: a review
Moore, M., & Wesselbaum, D. (2023) · Environment, Development and Sustainability · doi:10.1007/s10668-022-02191-z · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Huber, J., Madurga-Lopez, I., Murray, Ú., McKeown, P. C., Pacillo, G., Läderach, P., & Spillane, C. (2023) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-023-03549-6 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
The risks of invisibilization of populations and places in environment-migration research
Borderon, M., Best, K. B., Bailey, K., Hopping, D. L., Dove, M., & Cervantes de Blois, C. L. (2021) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-021-00999-0 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2023) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781009325844.016 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Chumky, T., Basu, M., Onitsuka, K., & Hoshino, S. (2022) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102931 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Human migration on a heating planet: A scoping review
Issa, R., van Daalen, K. R., Faddoul, A., Collias, L., James, R., Chaudhry, U. A. R., Graef, V., Sullivan, A., Erasmus, P., Chesters, H., et al. (2023) · PLOS Climate · doi:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000214 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Cappelli, F. (2020) · Economia Politica · doi:10.1007/s40888-023-00300-3 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Mobile Worlds: Choice at the Intersection of Demographic and Environmental Change
Barnett, J., & Adger, W. N. (2018) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-060952 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
A response framework for addressing the risks of climate change for homeless populations
Kidd, S. A., Bezgrebelna, M., Hajat, S., Keevers, L., Ravindran, A. V., Stergiopoulos, V., Wells, S. L., Yamamoto, S. S., Galvao, L. A. C., Hale, M. R., et al. (2023) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2023.2194280 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Impacts of drought on health: A qualitative case study from Iran
Mehdipour, S., Nakhaee, N., Khankeh, H. R., & Haghdoost, A. A. (2022) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103007 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Droughts and rural households’ wellbeing: evidence from Mexico
Arceo-Gómez, E. O., Hernández-Cortés, D., & López‐Feldman, A. (2020) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02869-1 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
de Walle, J. V., Brousse, O., Arnalsteen, L., Byarugaba, D., Ddumba, S. D., Demuzere, M., Lwasa, S., Nsangi, G., Sseviiri, H., Thiery, W., et al. (2021) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03733-7 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Ayeb‐Karlsson, S., & Uy, N. (2022) · Humanities and Social Sciences Communications · doi:10.1057/s41599-022-01068-w · Cited by 21 · see citing works
How do migration decisions and drivers differ against extreme environmental events?
Mallick, B., Best, K. B., Carrico, A. R., Ghosh, T., Priodarshini, R., Sultana, Z., & Samanta, G. (2023) · Environmental Hazards · doi:10.1080/17477891.2023.2195152 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
The impact of soil erosion on internal migration in China
Zhang, H., & Li, Z. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0215124 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Defining severe risks related to mobility from climate change
Gilmore, E., Wrathall, D. J., Adams, H., Buhaug, H., Castellanos, E. J., Hilmi, N., McLeman, R. A., Singh, C., & Adelekan, I. (2024) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2024.100601 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
9 Human mobility and adaptation to environmental change
Oakes, R., Banerjee, S., & Warner, K. (2020) · World Migration Report · doi:10.1002/wom3.19 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Supporting the agency of cities as climate migration destinations
Rosengaertner, S., de Sherbinin, A., & Stojanov, R. (2022) · International Migration · doi:10.1111/imig.13024 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Environmental migration and non-migration: Learning through an intergenerational lens
Mallick, B., & Hunter, L. M. (2024) · Migration Studies · doi:10.1093/migration/mnae031 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Bakhtsiyarava, M., Williams, T. G., Verdin, A., & Guikema, S. D. (2021) · Food Security · doi:10.1007/s12571-020-01132-w · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Self-citationDünyadan Örnekler Işığında İklim Değişikliği Kaynaklı Göçleri Anlamak
BİLBEN, M. S. I. (2019) · Mediterranean Journal of Humanities · doi:10.13114/mjh.2019.494 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Tubi, A., & Israeli, Y. (2024) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2024.100614 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
The relationship between climate change and internal migration in the Americas
Miguel, J. A. S. R. D. S., Díaz, E. M., & Becerril, D. M. M. (2021) · Management of Environmental Quality An International Journal · doi:10.1108/meq-01-2021-0020 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh
Freihardt, J. (2025) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-025-00478-7 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“Importantly, this finding contrasts previous literature which has found that climatic changes increase rural-to-urban migration (Ahsan et al., 2011; Bar-rios et al., 2006; Nawrotzki et al., 2017).”
Climate change vulnerability hotspots in Costa Rica: constructing a sub-national index
Nawrotzki, R., Tebeck, M., Harten, S., & Blankenagel, V. (2023) · Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences · doi:10.1007/s13412-023-00831-y · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Self-citationJain, V., Tewathia, N., & Barik, K. (2023) · Gender Issues · doi:10.1007/s12147-023-09310-8 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Human mobility and adaptation to environmental change
(2019) · World Migration Report · doi:10.18356/2a8d511f-en · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Sarker, M. S. H. (2021) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction · doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102525 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Zhou, S., & Chi, G. (2024) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2024.50.2 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
İçduygu, A., & Gören, H. (2023) · Migration Studies · doi:10.1093/migration/mnad021 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Ethnicity and Response to Internal Environmental Migrants in the United States
Ash, K., & Winchester, P. (2023) · Political Research Quarterly · doi:10.1177/10659129231225669 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Environmental influences on skilled worker migration from Bangladesh to Canada
McLeman, R. A., Moniruzzaman, M., & Akter, N. (2017) · Canadian Geographies / Géographies canadiennes · doi:10.1111/cag.12430 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Diverging identification of the poor: A non-random process. Chile 1992–2017
Klasen, S., & Barría, C. V. (2020) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104944 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Sensitivity of seasonal migration to climatic variability in central India
Choksi, P., Singh, D., Singh, J., Mondal, P., Nagendra, H., Urpelainen, J., & DeFries, R. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac046f · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Guo, X., Zhong, S., & Qiu, Z. (2024) · Journal of Rural Studies · doi:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2024.103244 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Hirsch, Z. M., Porter, J. R., Buresch, J. M., Medgyesi, D. N., Shu, E. G., & Hauer, M. (2024) · Climate · doi:10.3390/cli12090140 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
The effects of environmental and non-environmental shocks on livelihoods and migration in Tanzania
Blocher, J. M., Hoffmann, R., & Weisz, H. (2024) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-024-00449-4 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Climate change, conflict, and urban migration
Alverio, G. N., Sowers, J., & Weinthal, E. S. (2024) · Environment and Security · doi:10.1177/27538796241259242 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Link, A.-C., Oakes, R., Durand-Delacre, D., Thalheimer, L., & van der Geest, K. (2025) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-025-00486-7 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
On thresholds in the climate–migration relationship
Owen, P. D., & Wesselbaum, D. (2020) · International Review of Applied Economics · doi:10.1080/02692171.2020.1749242 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Effects of climate change on migration in Latin America and Caribbean: a scoping review
Cabieses, B., & Huerta, C. (2024) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2024.1412285 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Lyu, H., Dong, Z., Roobavannan, M., Kandasamy, J., & Pande, S. (2020) · Hydrological Sciences Journal · doi:10.1080/02626667.2020.1802030 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Ten insights on climate impacts and peace
Detges, A., Klingenfeld, D., König, C., Pohl, B., Rüttinger, L., Schewe, J., Šedová, B., & Vivekananda, J. (2020) · doi:10.55317/casc003 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Aldana, S. I., Petrick, L. M., Niedzwiecki, M. M., Valvi, D., Just, A. C., Gutiérrez-Ávila, I., Kloog, I., Barupal, D. K., Téllez‐Rojo, M. M., Wright, R. O., et al. (2025) · Environmental Science & Technology · doi:10.1021/acs.est.4c10717 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Interrelated drivers of migration intentions in Africa: Evidence from Afrobarometer surveys
Hoffmann, R., & Zens, G. (2024) · Environmental Development · doi:10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101096 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Farmer response to policy induced water reductions: Evidence from the Colorado River
Harris, L. (2024) · Journal of Environmental Economics and Management · doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2024.102986 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Environmental Migration in Latin America
Simon, D. H., & Riosmena, F. (2022) · International handbooks of population · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-76433-3_11 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Epstein, A., Harris, O., Benmarhnia, T., Camlin, C. S., & Weiser, S. D. (2023) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-023-15264-z · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Xia, H., Adamo, S. B., de Sherbinin, A., & Jones, B. (2019) · Applied Sciences · doi:10.3390/app9235219 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Olabode, O. F., & Comte, J. (2025) · Hydrological Sciences Journal · doi:10.1080/02626667.2025.2505171 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Migration and the environment: A look across perspectives
Oliva, P. (2024) · Regional Science and Urban Economics · doi:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.104005 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
İklim Göçü ve İklim Mülteciliği Kavramlarına İnsan Hakları Temelli Sosyolojik Bir Bakış
YÖRÜK, B. (2023) · Yüzüncü Yıl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi · doi:10.53568/yyusbed.1214134 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Martínez-Herrera, G., Trejo, I., Moreno-Calles, A. I., de Alba-Navarro, M. F., & Martínez‐Ballesté, A. (2021) · Journal of Ethnobiology · doi:10.2993/0278-0771-41.3.349 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Jennath, A., & Paul, S. K. (2024) · Human Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10745-024-00476-7 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
A real-options analysis of climate change and international migration
Braun, M. (2023) · Environment and Development Economics · doi:10.1017/s1355770x23000013 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Dahri, G. N., Mangan, T., Nangraj, G. M., Talpur, B. A., Jarwar, I. A., Sial, M., Nangraj, A. N., & Aamir, M. (2021) · Journal of Economic Impact · doi:10.52223/jei3012101 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
A systematized review exploring the map of publications on the health impacts of drought
Mehdipour, S., Nakhaee, N., Zolala, F., Okhovati, M., Afsar, F., & Haghdoost, A. A. (2022) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05311-0 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Tubi, A., & Israeli, Y. (2023) · Population and Environment · doi:10.1007/s11111-023-00421-8 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Heat and High Water: Nine Pathways to Climate Resilient Development
Talbot-Wright, H., & Vogt‐Schilb, A. (2023) · Inter-American Development Bank eBooks · doi:10.18235/0005214 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Precipitation Shocks, Rural Labor Markets and Migration: Evidence from Iran
Mostafavi-Dehzooei, M. H., & Asadi, G. (2018) · Climate and Development · doi:10.1080/17565529.2024.2324949 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Inyama, J., Warner, J. F., & Lagendijk, A. (2026) · Environmental Hazards · doi:10.1080/17477891.2026.2617616 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Anderson, T. G., Pons, D., Taylor, M. J., Xuruc, A., Salvatierra, H. R., Guido, Z., Sullivan, J. A., Liverman, D. M., & Anchukaitis, K. J. (2025) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-025-03978-5 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Cambio Climático y Enfermedades Infecciosas Emergentes: Riesgos, Vectores y Adaptación Sanitaria
Vega, J. T. S., Aguilar, J. H. S., Galicia, A. E. M., Pérez‐Campos, E., Cabrera-Fuentes, H. A., & González, E. E. J. (2025) · Ciencia Latina Revista Científica Multidisciplinar · doi:10.37811/cl_rcm.v9i3.17819 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Millock, K. E., & Withagen, C. A. A. M. (2021) · WORLD SCIENTIFIC eBooks · doi:10.1142/9789811240553_0010 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Ahsan, M. N., Naim, J., Supty, H. I., Khatun, F., Kumar, P., Okano, N., Ohara, M., & Nasrin, N. (2026) · Habitat International · doi:10.1016/j.habitatint.2026.103789 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Martínez, M. J., & Jiménez, M. (2026) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-026-08047-3 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Water Stress and Migration in Asia
Wrathall, D. J., & Van Den Hoek, J. (2022) · International Handbooks of Population · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-76433-3_9 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Climate change and SIDS in the transpacific region: flows of people, capital and goods
Sou, G. (2022) · Continuum · doi:10.1080/10304312.2023.2182960 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Risks and Opportunities Due to Climate Change
Владимировна, Г. Д., Barinova, G. M., & Krasnov, E. V. (2019) · Encyclopedia of the UN sustainable development goals · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-95885-9_76 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Climatic Variability and Cause-Specific Migration in Rural and Urban IndiaPreprint
Reyes, C. B., & Thiede, B. C. (2022) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/ctahs · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Fan, C. (2022) · doi:10.1093/obo/9780190922481-0057 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
روستازیستی پایدار در حوضه آبخیز بخش موسیآباد شهرستان تربت جام
مرادی, ا., & کلاهی, م. (2020) · فصلنامه علوم محیطی · doi:10.52547/envs.18.4.183
Environmental Migration Scholarship and Policy: Recent Progress, Future Challenges
McLeman, R. A. (2022) · International handbooks of population · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-76433-3_24
Risks and Opportunities Due to Climate Change
Владимировна, Г. Д., Barinova, G. M., & Krasnov, E. V. (2018) · Encyclopedia of the UN sustainable development goals · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-71063-1_76-1
Jain, V., Tewathia, N., & Barik, K. (2022) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2304249/v1
Addressing the Phenomenon in Mexico: Risks from the Protection Requirements Perspective
Gouritin, A. (2022) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-10335-3_5
Lee, S.-Y., Zhenskhan, D., Lim, S. S., Alipbeki, O., Balkibayeva, A., ORYNBEKOVA, G., Appazova, G., & Azan, T. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5252295
Drivers and patterns of disaster-induced migration in Southeast Asia
Nolos, R. C. (2025) · Asian and Pacific migration journal · doi:10.1177/01171968251367514
Sacotte, A., & Scholten, P. W. A. (2025) · Oxford Open Climate Change · doi:10.1093/oxfclm/kgaf022
Plantation-Based Land Restoration in Rainfed Ecosystems in India
Rao, C. S., Chandana, V. M., Karthik, R., & Jagadesh, M. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-981-95-2860-8_3
Climate Change, Violence, and Remittance Flows in Mexico
Smith, D. L. (2025) · International Migration Review · doi:10.1177/01979183251392493
Epstein, A., Harris, O. O., Benmarhnia, T., Camlin, C. S., & Weiser, S. D. (2023) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.22608590
- Authors
- Nawrotzki, R. J., DeWaard, J., Bakhtsiyarava, M., & Ha, J. T.
- Affiliations
- University of Minnesota (US)
- Corresponding author
- Nawrotzki, Raphael J.
- Venue
- Climatic Change
- Published
- 2016-11-17
- Volume
- 140
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 243-258
- ISSN
- 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-1480
- PMC
- PMC5395290
- OpenAlex
- W2552819746
- Cited by
- 108
- References
- 61
- Citations by year
- 2026: 10 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 4
- FWCI
- 13.31
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Climatic Change (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute for Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) (R24 HD041023)
- National Science Foundation funded Terra Populus project (ACI-0940818)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- climate shocks, rural-urban migration, internal migration, drought, extreme heat, nonlinear effects, threshold effects, climate-induced migration, climate change adaptation, Mexico, urbanization
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review