Cited by 108Climate Change, Adaptation, MigrationClimate change impacts on agricultureClimate Change and Health Impacts

Climate shocks and rural-urban migration in Mexico: exploring nonlinearities and thresholds

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Nawrotzki, Raphael J., DeWaard, Jack, Bakhtsiyarava, Maryia, Ha, Jasmine Trang·2017·Climatic Change

Abstract

Adverse climatic conditions may differentially drive human migration patterns between rural and urban areas, with implications for changes in population composition and density, access to infrastructure and resources, and the delivery of essential goods and services. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this notion. In this study, we investigate the relationship between climate shocks and migration between rural and urban areas within Mexico. We combine individual records from the 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses (n=683,518) with high-resolution climate data from Terra Populus that are linked to census data at the municipality level (n=2,321). We measure climate shocks as monthly deviation from a 30-year (1961-1990) long-term climate normal period, and uncover important nonlinearities using quadratic and cubic specifications. Satellite-based measures of urban extents allow us to classify migrant-sending and migrant-receiving municipalities as rural or urban to examine four internal migration patterns: rural-urban, rural-rural, urban-urban, and urban-rural. Among our key findings, results from multilevel models reveal that each additional drought month increases the odds of rural-urban migration by 3.6%. In contrast, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration is nonlinear. After a threshold of ~34 heat months is surpassed, the relationship between heat months and rural-urban migration becomes positive and progressively increases in strength. Policy and programmatic interventions may therefore reduce climate induced rural-urban migration in Mexico through rural climate change adaptation initiatives, while also assisting rural migrants in finding employment and housing in urban areas to offset population impacts.

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  • Previous literature has found that climatic changes increase rural-to-urban migration.

    “Importantly, this finding contrasts previous literature which has found that climatic changes increase rural-to-urban migration (Ahsan et al., 2011; Barrios et al., 2006; Nawrotzki et al., 2017).”

    From Environmental shocks and migration among a climate-vulnerable population in Bangladesh (2025) · cites this paper as Nawrotzki et al., 2017

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  1. IPCC Field CB Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014 1 32 Cambridge University Press New York
  2. McLeman R Opatowski M Borova B Walton-Roberts M Laurier US Embassy workshop on environmental migration and displacement: Workshop report 2016 Balsillie School of International Affairs Waterloo, Canada
  3. Romero-Lankao P Barros VR North America. Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014 1439 1498 Cambridge University Press New York

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Authors
Nawrotzki, R. J., DeWaard, J., Bakhtsiyarava, M., & Ha, J. T.
Affiliations
University of Minnesota (US)
Corresponding author
Nawrotzki, Raphael J.
Venue
Climatic Change
Published
2016-11-17
Volume
140
Issue
2
Pages
243-258
ISSN
  • 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
  • 1573-1480
OpenAlex
W2552819746
Cited by
108
References
61
Citations by year
2026: 10 · 2025: 12 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 4
FWCI
13.31
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Climatic Change (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • National Institute for Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) (R24 HD041023)
  • National Science Foundation funded Terra Populus project (ACI-0940818)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics › Climate change impacts on agriculture
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
Keywords
climate shocks, rural-urban migration, internal migration, drought, extreme heat, nonlinear effects, threshold effects, climate-induced migration, climate change adaptation, Mexico, urbanization

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