Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan
Open accessAbstract
Human migration attributable to climate events has recently received significant attention from the academic and policy communities (1-2). Quantitative evidence on the relationship between individual, permanent migration and natural disasters is limited (3-9). A 21-year longitudinal survey conducted in rural Pakistan (1991-2012) provides a unique opportunity to understand the relationship between weather and long-term migration. We link individual-level information from this survey to satellite-derived measures of climate variability and control for potential confounders using a multivariate approach. We find that flooding-a climate shock associated with large relief efforts-has modest to insignificant impacts on migration. Heat stress, however-which has attracted relatively little relief-consistently increases the long-term migration of men, driven by a negative effect on farm and non-farm income. Addressing weather-related displacement will require policies that both enhance resilience to climate shocks and lower barriers to welfare-enhancing population movements.
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- Authors
- Mueller, V., Gray, C., & Kosec, K.
- Affiliations
- International Food Policy Research Institute (US)
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- Corresponding author
- Mueller, V.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2014-01-26
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 182-185
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- PMC
- PMC4132829
- OpenAlex
- W1967305531
- Cited by
- 479
- References
- 21
- Citations by year
- 2026: 31 · 2025: 37 · 2024: 63 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 50 · 2021: 63 · 2020: 37 · 2019: 37 · 2018: 29 · 2017: 28 · 2016: 33 · 2015: 16 · 2014: 9 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 93.42
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Carolina Digital Repository (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- IFPRI E-brary (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- CGSPace A Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research) (submittedVersion)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (International Food Policy Research Institute) (submittedVersion)
- UNC Libraries
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (2r24hd050924-06)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24 HD-050924, R00HD061752)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Keywords
- heat stress, long-term migration, climate shocks, rural Pakistan, floods, farm income, off-farm income, male migration, climate-induced displacement, climate resilience
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