Temperatures and cyclones strongly associated with economic production in the Caribbean and Central America
Open accessAbstract
Understanding the economic impact of surface temperatures is an important question for both economic development and climate change policy. This study shows that in 28 Caribbean-basin countries, the response of economic output to increased temperatures is structurally similar to the response of labor productivity to high temperatures, a mechanism omitted from economic models of future climate change. This similarity is demonstrated by isolating the direct influence of temperature from that of tropical cyclones, an important correlate. Notably, output losses occurring in nonagricultural production (–2.4%/+1 °C) substantially exceed losses occurring in agricultural production (–0.1%/+1 °C). Thus, these results suggest that current models of future climate change that focus on agricultural impacts but omit the response of workers to thermal stress may underestimate the global economic costs of climate change.
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Agriculture is primarily affected by climate through its impacts on productivity, crop yields, arable land, and water.
“Agriculture is primarily affected by climate through its impacts on productivity, crop yields, arable land, and water (Schlenker and Roberts 2009, Hsiang 2010, Chen et al 2024).”
From The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways (2024) · cites this paper as Hsiang 2010
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- Authors
- Hsiang, S. M.
- Affiliations
- Columbia University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Hsiang, Solomon M.
- ORCID
- Hsiang, Solomon M.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2010-08-16
- Volume
- 107
- Issue
- 35
- Pages
- 15367-15372
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC2932627
- OpenAlex
- W2120422377
- Cited by
- 992
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 61 · 2025: 79 · 2024: 111 · 2023: 107 · 2022: 85 · 2021: 102 · 2020: 73 · 2019: 65 · 2018: 69 · 2017: 55 · 2016: 57 · 2015: 44 · 2014: 38 · 2013: 26 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 33.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- tropical cyclones, labor productivity, thermal stress (biology), agricultural production, Caribbean, Central America, climate policy
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Algorithms, Central America, Disasters, Fisheries, Geography, Humans, Mining, Rain, Seasons, Temperature, Tropical Climate, Caribbean Region, Models, Economic, Cyclonic Storms, Economic Development
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