Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems
Open accessAbstract
The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/m 2 in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/m 2 leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne CO 2 equivalent (GtCO 2 eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 GtCO 2 eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/m 2 forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity.
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For national policies, greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 would be somewhat higher, and for well below 2 °C scenarios lower, than earlier studies indicated.
“The results from this study show that, for national policies, greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 would be somewhat higher and for well below 2 °C scenarios lower than earlier studies indicated2,4,42”
From Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement (2020) · cites this paper as [42]
MAC cost measures tend to exclude existing distortions in the economy.
“MAC cost measures tend to exclude existing distortions in the economy42.”
From Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement (2020) · cites this paper as [42]
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Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement
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- Authors
- van Soest, H. L., de Boer, H. S., Roelfsema, M., den Elzen, M. G. J., Admiraal, A., van Vuuren, D. P., Hof, A. F., van den Berg, M., Harmsen, M. J. H. M., Gernaat, D. E. H. J., & Forsell, N.
- Affiliations
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Venue
- Climatic Change
- Published
- 2017-07-24
- Volume
- 144
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 165-179
- ISSN
- 0165-0009 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-1480
- OpenAlex
- W2738459632
- Cited by
- 50
- References
- 28
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 6 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 8 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 3
- FWCI
- 7.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Climatic Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- VU Research Portal (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Utrecht University
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Keywords
- Paris Agreement, Nationally Determined Contributions, climate change mitigation, greenhouse gas emissions, energy transition, radiative forcing, 2 °C warming limit, coal phase-out, low-carbon energy, mitigation costs, emission scenarios
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