Locked into Copenhagen pledges — Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals
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This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further “lock-in” of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become “a must” by 2030.
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These historical reductions were all achieved for non-climate reasons, with a focus on energy security and not on emissions reductions.
“These historical reductions were all achieved for non-climate reasons, with a focus on energy security and not on emissions reductions.”
From Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C (2016) · cites this paper as [40]
Section 4 attributes some historical emissions reductions to non-climate factors: Sweden’s response to the 1973 oil crisis and economic recessions in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. But it attributes France’s reductions to public support for nuclear power and also mentions the greening of Sweden’s energy system. It does not establish that all the reductions focused on energy security rather than emissions reductions. No page number is available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAll historical analogues for reductions were achieved in highly developed countries, such as France, Sweden and Denmark.
“This becomes even clearer when appreciating that all historical analogues for reductions were achieved in highly developed countries, such as France, Sweden and Denmark.”
From Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C (2016) · cites this paper as [40]
Section 4 names France, Sweden and Denmark as historical examples of emission declines. But it does not say all historical analogues came from highly developed countries: it also reports higher historical reduction rates in Eastern European and former Soviet Union countries, primarily during economic recessions. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredNot all scenarios considered in ScenarioMIP may be equally attainable.
“Results from major international IAM comparison projects (Clarke et al., 2009;Kriegler et al., 2014b;Riahi et al., 2015) indicate that not all scenarios considered in ScenarioMIP may be equally attainable.”
From The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 (2016) · cites this paper as Riahi et al., 2015
Section 5, “Mitigation costs and feasibility,” reports that some modeled pathways were infeasible and that feasibility varied with near-term emissions and technology assumptions. This supports the general point that scenarios may differ in attainability, but the paper studies AMPERE pathways, not the scenarios considered in ScenarioMIP. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe overall challenge can be minimized by additional GHG reductions in the near-term.
“However, the overall challenge can be minimized by additional GHG reductions in the near-term 16,40,41 .”
From Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C (2016) · cites this paper as [40]
Historically, countries have been able to achieve reductions in CO2 generation at rates of about 2%-3% per year as a result of dedicated (energy-security) policies.
“Historically, countries have been able to achieve reductions in CO2 generation at rates of about 2%-3% per year as a result of dedicated (energy-security) policies 40 (Fig. 2c; Supplementary Text 4).”
From Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C (2016) · cites this paper as [40]
The decarbonization between 2030 and 2050 is particularly decisive in these scenarios.
“The decarbonization between 2030 and 2050 is particularly decisive in these scenarios 40,45 .”
From Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C (2016) · cites this paper as [40]
Lower near-term emissions allow for a later timing of reaching global net-zero CO2 emissions and reduce the overall future reliance on negative emissions technologies.
“In general, lower near-term emissions allow for a later timing of reaching global net-zero CO2 emissions 17 (see 1.5-2 °C versus dark-orange range in Fig. 2a) and, moreover, reduce the overall future reliance on negative emissions technologies 16,40,41 .”
From Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C (2016) · cites this paper as [40]
Limiting emissions in 2030 increases the chances of attaining the 2 °C target and reduces the need to rely on unproven, potentially risky or controversial technologies in the future.
“This challenge is particularly relevant to policy, because limiting emissions in 2030 does not only increase the chances of attaining the 2 °C target, but also reduces the need to rely on unproven, potentially risky or controversial technologies in the future 16,40,59 .”
From Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C (2016) · cites this paper as [40]
The feasibility of a scenario in the real world hinges on additional factors, such as political and social concerns, which might render feasible model solutions unattainable.
“The latter hinges on a number of additional factors, such as political and social concerns, which might render feasible model solutions unattainable in the real world (see, e.g, Riahi et al., 2015).”
From The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6 (2016) · cites this paper as Riahi et al., 2015
Previous literature has shown that inadequate near-term reduction efforts imply a substantially higher rate of transformation to comply with the 2 °C limit, stranded assets, substantially higher mitigation costs in the long term, and reduced techno-economic mitigation potential due to carbon lock-in.
“Previous literature has shown that inadequate near-term reduction efforts imply that a substantially higher rate of transformation will be needed to comply with the 2 °C limit11, stranded assets25 and substantially higher mitigation costs in the long term, and reduced techno-economic mitigation potential due to carbon lock-in26.”
From Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement (2020) · cites this paper as [11]
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- Authors
- Riahi, K., Kriegler, E., Johnson, N., Bertram, C., den Elzen, M., Eom, J., Schaeffer, M., Edmonds, J., Isaac, M., Krey, V., Longden, T., Luderer, G., Méjean, A., McCollum, D. L., Mima, S., Turton, H., van Vuuren, D. P., Wada, K., Bosetti, V., Capros, P., Criqui, P., Hamdi-Cherif, M., Kainuma, M., & Edenhofer, O.
- Affiliations
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
- Climate Analytics (DE)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (IT)
- CIRED (FR)
- Paul Scherrer Institute (CH)
- Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (JP)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Riahi, Keywan
- ORCID
- Venue
- Technological Forecasting and Social Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2015-01
- Volume
- 90
- Pages
- 8-23
- ISSN
- 0040-1625 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2266015486
- Cited by
- 360
- References
- 73
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 18 · 2022: 29 · 2021: 37 · 2020: 21 · 2019: 29 · 2018: 63 · 2017: 41 · 2016: 30 · 2015: 37 · 2014: 23 · 2013: 9
- FWCI
- 77.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Technological Forecasting and Social Change (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- DORA PSI (Paul Scherrer Institute) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi (submittedVersion)
- RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- UTS ePRESS (University of Technology Sydney) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (submittedVersion)
- RENATE
- Funders
- European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) (265139)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Keywords
- Cancun Agreements, 2030 emission targets, climate change mitigation costs, greenhouse gas stabilization, 2°C target, overshoot, fossil fuel lock-in, energy system transformation, carbon capture and storage, bioenergy, climate policy stringency
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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