A global stocktake of the Paris pledges: Implications for energy systems and economy
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The United Nations-led international climate change negotiations in Paris in December 2015 (COP21) trigger and enhance climate action across the globe. This paper presents a model-based assessment of the Paris Agreement. In particular, we assess the mitigation policies implied by the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) put forward in the run-up to COP21 by individual member states and a policy that is likely to limit global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We combine a technology-rich bottom-up energy system model with an economy-wide top-down CGE model to analyse the impact on greenhouse gas emissions, energy demand and supply, and the wider economic effects, including the implications for trade flows and employment levels. In addition, we illustrate how the gap between the Paris mitigation pledges and a pathway that is likely to restrict global warming to 2 °C can be bridged. Results indicate that energy demand reduction and a decarbonisation of the power sector are important contributors to overall emission reductions up to 2050. Further, the analysis shows that the Paris pledges lead to relatively small losses in GDP, indicating that global action to cut emissions is consistent with robust economic growth. The results for employment indicate a potential transition of jobs from energy-intensive to low-carbon, service oriented sectors.
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Previous studies have shown that taken together, NDCs and national policies fall significantly short of the overall ambition of the Paris Agreement.
“Previous studies have highlighted that taken together, the NDCs and national policies fall significantly short of the overall ambition of the Paris Agreement2–4.”
From Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement (2020) · cites this paper as [4]
For national policies, greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 would be somewhat higher, and for well below 2 °C scenarios lower, than earlier studies indicated.
“The results from this study show that, for national policies, greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 would be somewhat higher and for well below 2 °C scenarios lower than earlier studies indicated2,4,42”
From Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement (2020) · cites this paper as [4]
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- Authors
- Vandyck, T., Keramidas, K., Saveyn, B., Kitous, A., & Vrontisi, Z.
- Affiliations
- Joint Research Center (ES)
- National Technical University of Athens (GR)
- Corresponding author
- Vandyck, Toon
- Venue
- Global Environmental Change
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2016-11
- Volume
- 41
- Pages
- 46-63
- ISSN
- 0959-3780 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2518870448
- Cited by
- 186
- References
- 57
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 14 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 22 · 2021: 21 · 2020: 24 · 2019: 24 · 2018: 27 · 2017: 12
- FWCI
- 40.81
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Global Environmental Change (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- AgEcon Search (University of Minnesota, USA) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Lirias (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Joint Research Centre (European Commission) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Electrical and Electronic Engineering › Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
- Keywords
- Paris Agreement, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, climate change mitigation, 2°C target, greenhouse gas emissions, energy system modelling, computable general equilibrium model, energy demand, power sector decarbonization, economic impacts of climate policy, GDP loss, employment transitions
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