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Universal Transfers, Tax Breaks and Fertility: Evidence from a Regional Reform in Norway
Open accessAbstract
The relatively high fertility in the Nordic countries has attracted considerable academic and political interest. Still, the causal relationship between economic circumstances and fertility in the Nordic context is poorly understood. This paper estimates the effect of tax breaks and universal transfers on fertility in the Nordic context. We analyze the fertility effects of a regional child benefit and tax reform implemented in the northern municipalities of the Norwegian county Troms, using the southern municipalities of the same county as a plausible and empirically similar control group. We use a difference-in-difference/event study design, and estimate multivariate models on individual-level data from administrative registers for the full population. The reform increased fertility among women in their early 20 s. The effects are concentrated among unmarried women, who received the largest subsidies. Our findings suggest that favorable economic conditions have contributed to the relatively high fertility in the Nordic countries. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11113-023-09793-z.
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“The evidence from both Hungary and Norway suggests that large fiscal support for families has a positive impact on fertility (Hart and Galloway 2023; Spéder, Murinkó, and Oláh 2020).”
From Family Policies in Low Fertility Countries: Evidence and Reflections (2025) · cites this paper as Hart and Galloway 2023
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“This is in line with Hart and Galloway ( 2023 ), which found positive effects of tax benefit reforms and improvements in labour market conditions on fertility in Norway.”
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Metadata
- Authors
- Hart, R. K., & Galloway, T. A.
- Affiliations
- Statistics Norway (NO)
- Corresponding author
- Hart, Rannveig Kaldager
- Venue
- Population Research and Policy Review
- Published
- 2023-05-23
- Volume
- 42
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 49-49
- ISSN
- 0167-5923 (ISSN-L)
- 1573-7829
- PMC
- PMC10205036
- OpenAlex
- W4377861192
- Cited by
- 8
- References
- 64
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 3
- FWCI
- 4.66
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Locations
- Population Research and Policy Review (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Funders
- Norges Forskningsråd (202442S20, 236926, 262700)
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
- Social Sciences › Gender Studies › Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social Policies and Family
- Keywords
- fertility, tax incentives, family allowances, unmarried women, young women, Tromsø
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