The impact of family policy expenditure on fertility in western Europe

Some studies suggest the effect of leave policies is mainly on the first birth as opposed to higher order births, and some suggest the effect is larger for more highly educated individuals.

“Some studies suggest that the effect appears to be mainly on the first birth (e.g., Brini 2020; Kalwij 2010) as opposed to higher order births, and some suggest that the effect is larger for more highly educated individuals (Baizan, Arpino, and Delclòs 2016).”

Expenditures on childcare have a positive impact on the first birth, and earner-carer support has a positive impact on the first and second births but not on the third.

“Kalwij (2010) reported a positive impact of the expenditures on childcare on the first birth, while Billingsley and Ferrarini (2014) reported a positive impact of their earner-carer support index on the first and second births, but not on the third.”

These policies have gone hand-in-hand with other policies in education, housing, health, and care, which have served to lower the perceived risks and opportunity costs associated with starting and growing a family.

“These policies have gone hand-in-hand with other policies in education, housing, health, and care (for instance), which have served to lower the perceived risks and opportunity costs associated with starting and growing a family (Kalwij 2010).”

Countries with extensive public support to families also tend to have higher fertility.

“Countries with extensive public support to families also tend to have higher fertility (e.g., Gauthier and Hatzius 1997; Kalwij 2010; Wood et al. 2016; Gauthier 2007)”