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Cited by 31Economics of Agriculture and Food MarketsMarket Dynamics and VolatilityFood Security and Socioeconomic Dynamics

Shocks in Economic Growth=shocking Effects for Food Security?

Open access
Kavallari, Aikaterini, Fellmann, Thomas, Gay, S. Hubertus·2014·Food Security
DOI 10.1007/s12571-014-0368-y
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Abstract

The recent economic and financial turmoil raises the question on how global economic growth affects agricultural commodity markets and, hence, food security. To address this question, this paper assesses the potential impacts of faster economic growth in developed and emerging economies on the one hand and a replication of the recent economic downturn on the other hand. The empirical analysis uses AGLINK-COSIMO, a recursive-dynamic, partial equilibrium, supply–demand model. Simulation results demonstrate that higher economic growth influences demand more than supply, resulting in higher world market prices for agricultural commodities. Emerging economies tend to import more and to stock less in order to cover their demand needs, while the rest of the world increases its exports. The modelled faster economic growth also helps developing countries to improve their trade balance, but does not necessarily give them the incentive to address domestic food security concerns by boosting domestic consumption. A replication of an economic downturn leads to lower world prices, and while the magnitude of the effects decreases over time, markets do not regain their baseline levels within a 5-year period. Due to the lower world market prices, developing countries import more and increase their per capita food calorie intake. However, as developing countries become more import dependent, this also implies that they become more vulnerable to disruptions in agricultural world markets.

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Crossref · 10.1007/s12571-014-0368-y

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45 of 45 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • General price volatility can disrupt the availability of food, affect access to nutritious diets, and undermine the stability of food systems, thereby exacerbating food insecurity.

    “general price volatility can disrupt the availability of food, affect access to nutritious diets, and undermine the stability of food systems, thereby exacerbating food insecurity.”

    From Food Financialization: Impact of Derivatives and Index Funds on Agri-Food Market Volatility (2024) · cites this paper as Kavallari and Fellmann 2014

    The World market prices section (page unavailable) says that abrupt food-price spikes make low-income, food-importing countries more vulnerable, and that higher prices can harm poor net buyers’ food security. The Conclusions and final remarks (page unavailable) also link price swings to food-security crises. The paper does not establish the broader claim about general price volatility disrupting food availability, nutritious diets, and food-system stability; it notes that price changes can benefit sellers as well as harm buyers. (LLM, conf=0.84)

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  • Food security encompasses availability, access, utilization, and stability, with volatility in food prices directly impacting these dimensions.

    “Kavallari and Fellmann emphasize that food security encompasses availability, access, utilization, and stability, with volatility in food prices directly impacting these dimensions (Kavallari and Fellmann 2014).”

    From Food Financialization: Impact of Derivatives and Index Funds on Agri-Food Market Volatility (2024) · cites this paper as Kavallari and Fellmann 2014

    The Introduction (page not provided) explicitly identifies availability, access, utilization, and stability as the four pillars of food security. It links prices to access and says the paper focuses on availability and aspects of access, but it does not establish that food-price volatility directly affects all four pillars. (LLM, conf=0.88)

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Cites

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Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. P. Pingali & R. Evenson (Eds.), Handbook of agricultural econom- ics, Vol. 4 (chapter 61, pp. 3035-3213).
  2. Timmer, C. P. (2002). Agriculture and economic devolpment. In B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (Eds.), Handbook of agricultural econom- ics, volume 2 (Part a, agriculture and its external linkages, chapter 29, pp. 1487-1546).

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Authors
Kavallari, A., Fellmann, T., & Gay, S. H.
Affiliations
  • Wageningen University & Research (NL)
  • European Commission (BE)
Corresponding author
Fellmann, Thomas
ORCID
Fellmann, Thomas
Venue
Food Security
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published
2014-08
Volume
6
Issue
4
Pages
567-583
ISSN
  • 1876-4517 (ISSN-L)
  • 1876-4525
DOI
10.1007/s12571-014-0368-y
OpenAlex
W2073690394
Cited by
31
References
45
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 3 · 2024: 5 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 2 · 2017: 2 · 2016: 1
FWCI
2.48
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Food Security (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
  • Joint Research Centre (European Commission) (submittedVersion)
  • Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Market Dynamics and Volatility
  • Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › General Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Food Security and Socioeconomic Dynamics
Keywords
economic growth, agricultural commodity markets, world agricultural prices, economic downturn, emerging markets, developing countries, agricultural trade, food imports, import dependence, trade balance, Aglink-Cosimo model

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