Endometrial cancer trends by race and histology in the USA: projecting the number of new cases from 2015 to 2040.
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Objectives The aim of this study is to explore incidence and incidence-based mortality trends for endometrial cancer in the USA and project future incident cases, accounting for differences by race and histological subtype. Methods Data on age-adjusted and age-specific incidence and mortality rates of endometrial cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 registries. Trends in rates were analyzed using Joinpoint regression, and average annual percent change (AAPC) in recent years (2006-2011) was computed for histological subtypes by race. Age, histological, and race-specific rates were applied to US Census Bureau population census estimates to project new cases from 2015 to 2040, accounting for observed AAPC trends, which were progressively attenuated for the future years. Results The annual number of cases is projected to increase substantially from 2015 to 2040 across all racial groups. Considerable variation in incidence and mortality trends was observed both between and within racial groups when considering histology. Conclusions As the US population undergoes demographic changes, incidence of endometrial cancer is projected to rise. The increase will occur in all racial groups, but larger increases will be seen in aggressive histology subtypes that disproportionately affect black women.
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- Authors
- Gaber, C., Meza, R., Ruterbusch, J. J., & Cote, M. L.
- Affiliations
- University of Michigan (US)
- Wayne State University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Meza, Rafael
- Venue
- Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities
- Published
- 2016-10-17
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 895-903
- ISSN
- 2196-8837 (ISSN-L)
- 2197-3792
- PMC
- PMC6917984
- OpenAlex
- W2535870091
- Cited by
- 66
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2025: 9 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 3 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 5 · 2017: 1
- FWCI
- 1.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Journal of Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Cancer Institute (P30CA022453)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Obstetrics and Gynecology › Endometrial and Cervical Cancer Treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Cancer Risks and Factors
- Keywords
- endometrial cancer, cancer incidence trends, cancer mortality, racial disparities, histological subtypes, incidence projections, Black women, age-specific incidence, SEER database, population projections
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