Projecting Cancer Incidence and Deaths to 2030: The Unexpected Burden of Thyroid, Liver, and Pancreas Cancers in the United States
Abstract
Cancer incidence and deaths in the United States were projected for the most common cancer types for the years 2020 and 2030 based on changing demographics and the average annual percentage changes in incidence and death rates. Breast, prostate, and lung cancers will remain the top cancer diagnoses throughout this time, but thyroid cancer will replace colorectal cancer as the fourth leading cancer diagnosis by 2030, and melanoma and uterine cancer will become the fifth and sixth most common cancers, respectively. Lung cancer is projected to remain the top cancer killer throughout this time period. However, pancreas and liver cancers are projected to surpass breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers to become the second and third leading causes of cancer-related death by 2030, respectively. Advances in screening, prevention, and treatment can change cancer incidence and/or death rates, but it will require a concerted effort by the research and healthcare communities now to effect a substantial change for the future.
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PDAC is on track to become the number 2 cancer killer in the United States within the next decade, unless there is a major improvement in outcomes.
“Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is on track to become the number 2 cancer killer in the United States within the next decade, unless there is a major improvement in outcomes.10”
From Artificial Intelligence and Early Detection of Pancreatic Cancer: 2020 Summative Review (2021) · cites this paper as [10]
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- Authors
- Rahib, L., Smith, B. D., Aizenberg, R., Rosenzweig, A. B., Fleshman, J. M., & Matrisian, L. M.
- Affiliations
- The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center (US)
- Venue
- Cancer Research
- Published
- 2014-05-29
- Volume
- 74
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 2913-2921
- ISSN
- 0008-5472 (ISSN-L)
- 1538-7445
- OpenAlex
- W1968812902
- Cited by
- 7,094
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 307 · 2025: 502 · 2024: 616 · 2023: 774 · 2022: 820 · 2021: 914 · 2020: 883 · 2019: 715 · 2018: 565 · 2017: 421 · 2016: 341 · 2015: 187 · 2014: 39 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 158.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Cancer Research (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- cancer incidence projections, cancer mortality projections, thyroid cancer, liver cancer, pancreatic cancer, lung cancer, breast cancer, prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, melanoma, uterine cancer, cancer burden, United States
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Lung Neoplasms, Male, Mortality, Pancreatic Neoplasms, Thyroid Neoplasms, United States, Models, Statistical, Incidence
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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