Cardiovascular event reduction among a US population eligible for semaglutide per the SELECT trial
Abstract
Background Our objective was to determine the number of major cardiovascular events (MACE, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death) and deaths from any cause that could be prevented across varying nationwide uptake of semaglutide 2.4 mg SC weekly for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. Methods Using a nationally representative cross-sectional study of participants in the 2017-2018 and 2019-March 2020 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in the U.S. (NHANES), we estimated the number of MACE and deaths from any cause potentially prevented over a four-year period among participants meeting SELECT trial inclusion criteria. Results In a sample of n = 216 individuals (corresponding to 4,473,681 adults in the U.S. population) potentially eligible for this therapy, a total of 356,329 MACE and 232,808 all-cause mortality events were expected without semaglutide over 4 years and 35,633 MACE and 22,117 all-cause mortality events would be prevented with 50% uptake of semaglutide. Conclusions Approximately 4.5 million adults in the U.S. are forecasted to be eligible for semaglutide 2.4mg SC weekly therapy, with substantial impact on CVD and mortality if accessible and broadly used.
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Data to understand long-term health benefits, such as CVD risk reduction, in patients with obesity are limited.
“While studies have reported beneficial effects in cardiovascular outcomes in populations with T2D,19–23 data to understand the long-term health benefits, such as CVD risk reduction, in patients with obesity are limited.24,25”
From Tirzepatide compared with semaglutide and 10-year cardiovascular disease risk reduction in obesity: <i>post-hoc</i> analysis of the SURMOUNT-5 trial (2025) · cites this paper as [25]
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- Authors
- Lusk, J. B., Glover, L., Soneji, S., Granger, C. B., O'Brien, E., & Pagidipati, N.
- Affiliations
- Duke University (US)
- Duke Clinical Research Institute (US)
- Corresponding author
- Pagidipati, Neha
- ORCID
- Venue
- American Heart Journal
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2024-10
- Volume
- 276
- Pages
- 110-114
- ISSN
- 0002-8703 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4401115491
- Cited by
- 9
- References
- 13
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 5
- FWCI
- 2.65
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- Locations
- American Heart Journal (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- American Heart Association
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Treatment and Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Lipoproteins and Cardiovascular Health
- Keywords
- semaglutide, major adverse cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality, number needed to treat, SELECT trial, GLP-1 receptor agonists, cardiovascular risk reduction
- MeSH terms
- Semaglutide, Adult, Aged, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cross-Sectional Studies, Glucagon-Like Peptides, Female, Humans, Hypoglycemic Agents, Male, Middle Aged, Myocardial Infarction, Nutrition Surveys, United States, Stroke, Secondary Prevention
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