CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 24

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 1 of the 1 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

Slow and steady wins the race? Future climate and land use change leaves the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) behind

Hamilton, Christopher M., Bateman, Brooke L., Gorzo, Jessica M., Reid, Brendan, Thogmartin, Wayne E., Peery, M. Zachariah, Heglund, Patricia J., Radeloff, Volker C., Pidgeon, Anna M.·2018·Biological Conservation
DOI 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.03.026
Open this paper in CoChat — free account

Abstract

Climate change is accompanied by shifts in species distributions, as portions of current ranges become less suitable. Maintaining or improving landscape connectivity to facilitate species movements is a primary approach to mitigate the effects of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is not clear how ongoing changes in land use and climate may affect the existing connectivity of landscapes. We evaluated shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity for the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) in Wisconsin using species distribution modeling in combination with different future scenarios of both land use change and climate change for the 2050s. We found that climate change had significant effects on both habitat suitability and connectivity, however, there was little difference in the magnitude of effects among different economic scenarios. Under both our low- and high-CO₂ emissions scenarios, suitable habitat for the Blanding's turtle shifted northward. In the high-emissions scenario, almost no suitable habitat remained for Blanding's turtle in Wisconsin by the 2050s and there was up to a 100,000-fold increase in landscape resistance to turtle movement, suggesting the landscape essentially becomes impassable. Habitat loss and landscape resistance were exponentially greater in southern versus northern Wisconsin, indicating a strong trailing edge effect. Thus, populations at the southern edge of the range are likely to “fall behind” shifts in suitable habit…

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.03.026

Cites

1 of 1 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Citations

Cites

Research works printed but not linked: 89

  1. Albright, 2009, Effects of drought on avian community structure, Glob. Chang. Biol., 16, 2158, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02120.x · DOI
  2. Anderson, 2009, Dynamics of range margins for metapopulations under climate change, Proc. Biol. Sci., 276, 1415
  3. Attum, 2008, Wetland complexes and upland-wetland linkages: landscape effects on the distribution of rare and common wetland reptiles, J. Zool., 275, 245, 10.1111/j.1469-7998.2008.00435.x · DOI
  4. Bateman, 2012, Nice weather for bettongs: using weather events, not climate means, in species distribution models, Ecography (Cop.), 35, 306, 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.06871.x · DOI
  5. Bateman, 2012, Biotic interactions influence the projected distribution of a specialist mammal under climate change, Divers. Distrib., 18, 861, 10.1111/j.1472-4642.2012.00922.x · DOI
  6. Baum, 2014, The matrix enhances the effectiveness of corridors and stepping stones, Ecology, 85, 2671, 10.1890/04-0500 · DOI
  7. Beaudry, 2008, Identifying road mortality threat at multiple spatial scales for semi-aquatic turtles, Biol. Conserv., 141, 2550, 10.1016/j.biocon.2008.07.016 · DOI
  8. Beaudry, 2009, Seasonally dynamic habitat use by spotted (Clemmys guttata) and Blanding ’ s turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) in Maine, J. Herpetol., 43, 636, 10.1670/08-127.1 · DOI
  9. Beaudry, 2010, Identifying hot moments in road-mortality risk for freshwater turtles, J. Wildl. Manag., 74, 152, 10.2193/2008-370 · DOI
  10. Beier, 2010, Use of land facets to plan for climate change: conserving the arenas, not the actors, Conserv. Biol., 24, 701, 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2009.01422.x · DOI
  11. Beier, 1998, Do habitat corridors provide connectivity?, Conserv. Biol., 12, 1241, 10.1111/j.1523-1739.1998.98036.x · DOI · Paper page
  12. Carter, 2014, Improving the utility of existing conservation plans using projected housing development, Landsc. Urban Plan., 126, 10, 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.03.002 · DOI
  13. Chen, 2011, Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming, Science, 333, 1024, 10.1126/science.1206432 · DOI
  14. Congdon, 2011, Spatial ecology and core-area protection of Blanding's Turtle (Emydoidea blandingii), Can. J. Zool., 89, 1098, 10.1139/z11-091 · DOI
  15. Coreau, 2009, The rise of research on futures in ecology: rebalancing scenarios and predictions, Ecol. Lett., 12, 1277, 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01392.x · DOI
  16. Cushman, 2013, Evaluating the intersection of a regional wildlife connectivity network with highways, Mov. Ecol., 1, 12, 10.1186/2051-3933-1-12 · DOI
  17. Damschen, 2006, Corridors increase plant species richness at large scales, Science, 313, 1284, 10.1126/science.1130098 · DOI
  18. DeFries, 2007, Land use change around protected areas: management to balance human needs and ecological function, Ecol. Appl., 17, 1031, 10.1890/05-1111 · DOI
  19. Elith, 2009, Do they? How do they? WHY do they differ? On finding reasons for differing performances of species distribution models, Ecography (Cop.), 32, 66, 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2008.05505.x · DOI
  20. Elith, 2006, Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data, Ecography (Corp.), 29, 129, 10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x · DOI · Paper page
  21. Fahrig, 2003, Effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity, Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst., 34, 487, 10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.34.011802.132419 · DOI · Paper page
  22. Fleishman, 2011, Top 40 Priorities for Science to Inform US Conservation and Management Policy, BioScience, 61, 290, 10.1525/bio.2011.61.4.9 · DOI
  23. Foley, 2005, Global consequences of land use, Science, 309, 570, 10.1126/science.1111772 · DOI · Paper page
  24. Franklin, 2009, Importance of matrix habitats in maintaining biological diversity, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 106, 349, 10.1073/pnas.0812016105 · DOI
  25. Fry, 2011, Completion of the 2006 National Land Cover Database for the Conterminous United States, PE&RS, 77, 858
  26. Gerlach, 2000, Fragmentation of landscape as a cause for genetic subdivision in bank voles, Conserv. Biol., 14, 1066, 10.1046/j.1523-1739.2000.98519.x · DOI
  27. Gilbert-Norton, 2010, A meta-analytic review of corridor effectiveness, Conserv. Biol., 24, 660, 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01450.x · DOI
  28. Goodwin, 2002, How does landscape structure influence landscape connectivity?, Oikos, 99, 552, 10.1034/j.1600-0706.2002.11824.x · DOI · Paper page
  29. Grgurovic, 2005, Movement patterns of Blanding's turtles (Emydoidea blandingii) in the suburban landscape of eastern Massachusetts, Urban Ecosyst., 10.1007/s11252-005-4380-z · DOI
  30. Griffith, 2009, Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System, Environ. Manag., 44, 1043, 10.1007/s00267-009-9323-7 · DOI
  31. Gude, 2007, Biodiversity consequences of alternative future land use scenarios in Greater Yellowstone, Ecol. Appl., 17, 1004, 10.1890/05-1108 · DOI
  32. Haddad, 2005, Low-quality habitat corridors as movement conduits for two butterfly species, Ecol. Appl., 15, 250, 10.1890/03-5327 · DOI
  33. Haddad, 2003, Corridor use by diverse taxa, Ecology, 84, 609, 10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[0609:CUBDT]2.0.CO;2 · DOI
  34. Hamilton, 2013, Current and future land use around a nationwide protected area network, PLoS One, 8, 10.1371/journal.pone.0055737 · DOI
  35. Hamilton, 2015, Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change, Environ. Conserv., 42, 12, 10.1017/S0376892914000174 · DOI
  36. Hansen, 2007, Ecological mechanisms linking protected areas to surrounding lands, Ecol. Appl., 17, 974, 10.1890/05-1098 · DOI
  37. Heller, 2009, Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: a review of 22 years of recommendations, Biol. Conserv., 142, 14, 10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.006 · DOI · Paper page
  38. Hijmans, 2006, The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions, Glob. Chang. Biol., 12, 2272, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01256.x · DOI
  39. Joppa, 2008, On the protection of “protected areas”, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 105, 6673, 10.1073/pnas.0802471105 · DOI
  40. Kadmon, 2004, Effect of roadside bias on the accuracy of predictive maps produced by bioclimatic models, Ecol. Appl., 14, 401, 10.1890/02-5364 · DOI
  41. Keller, 2003, Recent habitat fragmentation caused by major roads leads to reduction of gene flow and loss of genetic variability in ground beetles, Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci., 270, 417, 10.1098/rspb.2002.2247 · DOI
  42. Kramer-Schadt, 2011, Analyzing the effect of stepping stones on target patch colonisation in structured landscapes for Eurasian lynx, Landsc. Ecol., 26, 501, 10.1007/s10980-011-9576-4 · DOI
  43. Krosby, 2010, Ecological connectivity for a changing climate, Conserv. Biol., 24, 1686, 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01585.x · DOI · Paper page
  44. Leidner, 2011, Combining measures of dispersal to identify conservation strategies in fragmented landscapes, Conserv. Biol., 25, 1022, 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01720.x · DOI
  45. Lindenmayer, 2008, A checklist for ecological management of landscapes for conservation, Ecol. Lett., 11, 78, 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2007.01114.x · DOI
  46. Loarie, 2009, The velocity of climate change, Nature, 462, 1052, 10.1038/nature08649 · DOI
  47. Mairota, 2013, Using landscape structure to develop quantitative baselines for protected area monitoring, Ecol. Indic., 33, 82, 10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.08.017 · DOI
  48. McGuire, 2013, Spatial aspects of movements, mating patterns, and nest distributions influence gene flow among population subunits of Blanding's turtles (Emydoidea blandingii), Conserv. Genet., 14, 1029, 10.1007/s10592-013-0493-8 · DOI
  49. McRae, 2008, vol. 89, 2712
  50. Merenlender, 2009, The importance of incorporating threat for efficient targeting and evaluation of conservation investments, Conserv. Lett., 2, 240, 10.1111/j.1755-263X.2009.00073.x · DOI
  51. Mockford, 2006, Conservation genetics of Blanding's turtle and its application in the identification of evolutionarily significant units, Conserv. Genet., 8, 209, 10.1007/s10592-006-9163-4 · DOI
  52. Mori, 2013, Reframing ecosystem management in the era of climate change: issues and knowledge from forests, Biol. Conserv., 165, 115, 10.1016/j.biocon.2013.05.020 · DOI
  53. Niemuth, 2010, Spatial and temporal variation in wet area of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota and South Dakota, Wetlands, 30, 1053, 10.1007/s13157-010-0111-1 · DOI
  54. Noss, 1987, Corridors in Real Landscapes: A Reply to Simberloff and Cox, Conserv. Biol., 1, 159, 10.1111/j.1523-1739.1987.tb00024.x · DOI
  55. Nusser, 1997, The National Resources Inventory: a long-term multi-resource monitoring programme, Environ. Ecol. Stat., 4, 181, 10.1023/A:1018574412308 · DOI
  56. Parmesan, 2003, A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems, Nature, 421, 37, 10.1038/nature01286 · DOI · Paper page
  57. Pearce, 2000, Evaluating the predictive performance of habitat models developed using logistic regression, Ecol. Model., 133, 225, 10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00322-7 · DOI
  58. Pearson, 2007, Species' distribution modeling for conservation educators and practitioners, Synth. Am. Museum Nat. Hist., 1, 1
  59. Phillips, 2008, Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation, Ecography (Cop.), 31, 161, 10.1111/j.0906-7590.2008.5203.x · DOI · Paper page
  60. Phillips, 2006, Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions, Ecol. Model., 190, 231, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026 · DOI · Paper page
  61. Piquer-Rodríguez, 2012, Future land use effects on the connectivity of protected area networks in southeastern Spain, J. Nat. Conserv., 20, 326, 10.1016/j.jnc.2012.07.001 · DOI
  62. Pomara, 2013, Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species, Glob. Chang. Biol.
  63. Radeloff, 2012, Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios, Ecol. Appl., 22, 1036, 10.1890/11-0306.1 · DOI
  64. Reid, 2014, Land use patterns skew sex ratios, decrease genetic diversity and trump the effects of recent climate change in an endangered turtle, Divers. Distrib., 20, 1425, 10.1111/ddi.12243 · DOI
  65. Reid, 2016, Linking genetic kinship and demographic analyses to characterize dispersal: methods and application to Blanding's turtle, J. Hered., 107, 603, 10.1093/jhered/esw052 · DOI
  66. Reid, 2017, Genetic effects of landscape, habitat preference, and demography on three co-occurring turtle species, Mol. Ecol., 26, 781, 10.1111/mec.13962 · DOI
  67. Rödder, 2013, Evaluating the significance of paleophylogeographic species distribution models in reconstructing quaternary range-shifts of nearctic chelonians, PLoS One, e72855, 8
  68. Rodrigues, 2004, Global gap analysis: priority regions for expanding the global protected-area network, Bioscience, 54, 1092, 10.1641/0006-3568(2004)054[1092:GGAPRF]2.0.CO;2 · DOI
  69. Ross, 1990, Habitat use, movements, and nesting of Emydoidea blandingi in central Wisconsin, J. Herpetol., 6, 10.2307/1564283 · DOI
  70. Rouget, 2003, Current patterns of habitat transformation and future threats to biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems of the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, Biol. Conserv., 112, 63, 10.1016/S0006-3207(02)00395-6 · DOI
  71. Sanderson, 2002, The human footprint and the last of the wild, Bioscience, 52, 891, 10.1641/0006-3568(2002)052[0891:THFATL]2.0.CO;2 · DOI
  72. Saura, 2013, EDITOR'S CHOICE: Stepping stones are crucial for species' long-distance dispersal and range expansion through habitat networks, J. Appl. Ecol., 51, 171, 10.1111/1365-2664.12179 · DOI · Paper page
  73. Schmidt, 1938, Herpetological evidence for the postglacial eastward extension of the steppe in North America, Ecology, 19, 396, 10.2307/1930594 · DOI
  74. Shepard, 2008, Roads as barriers to animal movement in fragmented landscapes, Anim. Conserv., 11, 288, 10.1111/j.1469-1795.2008.00183.x · DOI
  75. Simberloff, 1992, Movement Corridors: Conservation Bargains or Poor Investments?, Conserv. Biol., 6, 493, 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1992.06040493.x · DOI
  76. Smith, 2000, An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability, Clim. Chang., 45, 223, 10.1023/A:1005661622966 · DOI
  77. Smith, 2000, An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability, Clim. Chang., 45, 223, 10.1023/A:1005661622966 · DOI
  78. Steen, 2006, Relative vulnerability of female turtles to road mortality, Anim. Conserv., 9, 269, 10.1111/j.1469-1795.2006.00032.x · DOI
  79. Stephens, 2009, Bridging the gap between community ecology and historical biogeography: niche conservatism and community structure in emydid turtles, Mol. Ecol., 18, 4664, 10.1111/j.1365-294X.2009.04378.x · DOI
  80. Stryszowska, 2016, Species distribution modeling of the threatened Blanding's Turtle's (Emydoidea blandingii) range edge as a tool for conservation planning, J. Herpetol., 50, 366, 10.1670/15-089 · DOI
  81. Taylor, 1993, Connectivity is a vital element of landscape structure, Oikos, 571, 10.2307/3544927 · DOI · Paper page
  82. Thuiller, 2004, Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change, Glob. Chang. Biol., 10, 2020, 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2004.00859.x · DOI
  83. Tischendorf, 2000, How should we measure landscape connectivity?, Landsc. Ecol., 15, 633, 10.1023/A:1008177324187 · DOI
  84. Tischendorf, 2000, On the usage and measurement of landscape connectivity, Oikos, 90, 7, 10.1034/j.1600-0706.2000.900102.x · DOI
  85. VanDerWal, 2009, Selecting pseudo-absence data for presence-only distribution modeling: how far should you stray from what you know?, Ecol. Model., 220, 589, 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.11.010 · DOI · Paper page
  86. Veloz, 2011, Identifying climatic analogs for Wisconsin under 21st-century climate-change scenarios, Clim. Chang., 112, 1037, 10.1007/s10584-011-0261-z · DOI
  87. Vitousek, 1997, Human domination of Earth's ecosystems, Science, 277, 494, 10.1126/science.277.5325.494 · DOI · Paper page
  88. White, 1997, Assessing risks to biodiversity from future landscape change, Conserv. Biol., 11, 349, 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1997.95458.x · DOI
  89. Williams, 2007, Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises, Front. Ecol. Environ., 5, 475, 10.1890/070037 · DOI · Paper page

Cited by

Sorted by citations

See all 24

Metadata

Authors
Hamilton, C. M., Bateman, B. L., Gorzo, J. M., Reid, B., Thogmartin, W. E., Peery, M. Z., Heglund, P. J., Radeloff, V. C., & Pidgeon, A. M.
ORCID
Bateman, Brooke L.
Venue
Biological Conservation
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2018-06
Volume
222
Pages
75-85
ISSN
0006-3207
DOI
10.1016/j.biocon.2018.03.026
Cited by
24
References
1
Language
en
Licence
Funders
  • U.S. Geological Survey (G10AC00352)
  • U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (F12AP00423)

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review