The costs of production of alternative jet fuel: a harmonized stochastic assessment
Abstract
This study quantifies and compares the costs of production for six alternative jet fuel pathways using consistent financial and technical assumptions. Uncertainty was propagated through the analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. The six processes assessed were HEFA, advanced fermentation, Fischer-Tropsch, aqueous phase processing, hydrothermal liquefaction, and fast pyrolysis. The results indicate that none of the six processes would be profitable in the absence of government incentives, with HEFA using yellow grease, HEFA using tallow, and FT revealing the lowest mean jet fuel prices at $0.91/liter ($0.66/liter-$1.24/liter), $1.06/liter ($0.79/liter-$1.42/liter), and $1.15/liter ($0.95/liter-$1.39/liter), respectively. This study also quantifies plant performance in the United States with a Renewable Fuel Standard policy analysis. Results indicate that some pathways could achieve positive NPV with relatively high likelihood under existing policy supports, with HEFA and FPH revealing the highest probability of positive NPV at 94.9% and 99.7%, respectively, in the best-case scenario.
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The main bottleneck for commercialization of HEPA-SPK biojet fuel is the selling price, which could amount to 825-2000 $/ton, compared to fossil-based jet fuel at 329 $/ton.
“The main bottleneck for commercialization of the HEPA-SPK biojet fuel is the selling price, which could amount to 825 -2000 $/ton, in comparison to that of fossil-based jet fuel: 329 $/ton [94].”
From Assessing the future prospects of emerging technologies for shipping and aviation biofuels: A critical review (2024) · cites this paper as [94]
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- Authors
- Bann, S. J., Malina, R., Staples, M. D., Suresh, P., Pearlson, M., Tyner, W. E., Hileman, J. I., & Barrett, S.
- Affiliations
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Purdue University West Lafayette (US)
- Federal Aviation Administration (US)
- Corresponding author
- Malina, Robert
- ORCID
- Venue
- Bioresource Technology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2017-03
- Volume
- 227
- Pages
- 179-187
- ISSN
- 0960-8524 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2560288009
- Cited by
- 113
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 11 · 2021: 26 · 2020: 6 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 13 · 2017: 3
- FWCI
- 5.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Bioresource Technology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Document Server@UHasselt (UHasselt) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Advanced Aircraft Design and Technologies
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Biomedical Engineering › Biofuel production and bioconversion
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Biomedical Engineering › Thermochemical Biomass Conversion Processes
- Keywords
- alternative jet fuels, production costs, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, aqueous processing, hydrothermal liquefaction, fast pyrolysis, Renewable Fuel Standard, government incentives, net present value, uncertainty analysis, yellow grease, tallow, aviation biofuels
- MeSH terms
- Costs and Cost Analysis, Hydrocarbons, Probability, Stochastic Processes, Uncertainty, Biofuels, Policy
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