Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets

Manski, Charles F.·2006·Economics Letters
DOI 10.1016/j.econlet.2006.01.004

Cited by (331)

Items 201–300 of 331

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  26. Heterogeneous Beliefs and Prediction Market Accuracy
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  28. Social Network Effects on Information Aggregation
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  30. Aggregation of information and beliefs on prediction markets with non-bayesian traders
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  36. Expectations
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  38. Pricing Prediction Markets: Risk Premiums, Incomplete Markets, and a Decomposition Framework
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  41. Informational Efficiency and Behaviour Within In-Play Prediction Markets
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  42. Information Aggregation Efficiency in Virtual Prediction Markets
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  43. Agent-Based Modeling of the Prediction Markets
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  44. Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data
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  46. Bayesian learning with catastrophe risk : information externalities in a large economy
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  47. Nonconvex Equilibrium Prices in Prediction Markets
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  50. The relevance of group expertise for the accuracy of a prediction market
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  51. The Dancer and the Dance: Agents, Beliefs, and Actions in Prediction Markets
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  52. From the complaint to the solution — The idea blog of TU Braunschweig as a concept of direct democracy
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  57. IBM Research Report Equilibrium in Prediction Markets with Buyers and Sellers
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  58. Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics and Mechanics
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  59. Boolean Network-based Prediction Market
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  61. Budget Constraints in Prediction Markets
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  62. V-PONI: A Framework for Value-in-use Predictions Based on Obtaining Non-precise Indicators
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  63. Using prediction markets for decision support
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  64. Artificial Prediction Markets For Classification, Regression And Density Estimation
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  65. Prediction Markets for Machine Learning: Equilibrium Behaviour through Sequential Markets
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  66. State-dependent Preferences in Prediction Markets and Prices as Aggregate Statistic
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  67. The Informational Content of the Limit Order Book: An Empirical Study of Prediction Markets
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  74. Advancements in the Elicitation and Aggregation of Private Information
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  75. Heterogeneous expectations in experimental asset markets
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  77. A bias aggregation theorem
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  80. Fair bets in sports betting
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  81. IKT-gestützte Unternehmenskommunikation: "Sags uns"
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  82. Social Media Analytics: The Next Big Thing?
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  83. Determination of Odds in Prediction Markets: Coexistence of Posted-offer and Double-auction Designs
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  84. Surprise me if you can: influence of newspaper endorsements in US Presidential elections
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  85. Implications of Belief Distribution and Loss Aversion for Betting Market Anomalies
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  86. Four patterns of mispricing in binary option markets
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  87. A Parimutuel-Like Mechanism for Information Aggregation: A Field Test Inside Intel
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  88. Prediction Market Design
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  89. 13. Supplementary Material from Online Resources
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  90. Preface
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  92. When Do Prediction Markets Return Average Beliefs? Experimental Evidence
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  93. How Market Prices React to Information: Evidence from Binary Options Markets
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  94. Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process for horse race betting: A micro–macro analysis of herding and informed bettors
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  95. Prediction Market Design
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  96. Expectations
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  100. Experimental Evidence on Systematic Misperceptions About Non-Selfish Behaviors
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