Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets
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This type of contract can under some conditions be interpreted as the average predicted probability of the outcome occurring.
“This type of contract can under some conditions be interpreted as the average predicted probability of the outcome occurring ( 27 , 63 ); see Sonneman et al ( 64 ) for lab evidence that averaged beliefs are close to prediction market prices.”
From Evaluating replicability of laboratory experiments in economics (2016) · cites this paper as [63]
The Discussion says that even under the paper’s maintained assumptions, a contract’s price does not equal traders’ mean belief. The Introduction says the price is instead the midpoint of an interval in which the mean belief may lie. Thus the paper does not support interpreting the price as the average predicted probability under those conditions. (LLM, conf=0.89)
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- Authors
- Manski, C. F.
- Affiliations
- Northwestern University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Manski, Charles F.
- ORCID
- Manski, Charles F.
- Venue
- Economics Letters
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2006-06
- Volume
- 91
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 425-429
- ISSN
- 0165-1765 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2891132906
- Cited by
- 330
- References
- 4
- Citations by year
- 2026: 34 · 2025: 9 · 2024: 7 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 10 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 17 · 2015: 22 · 2014: 21 · 2013: 19 · 2012: 27
- FWCI
- 36.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.nber.org
- Locations
- Economics Letters (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic theories and models
- Keywords
- prediction markets, futures markets, price formation, heterogeneous beliefs, equilibrium
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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