Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets

Manski, Charles F.·2006·Economics Letters
DOI 10.1016/j.econlet.2006.01.004

Cited by (331)

Items 301–331 of 331

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  2. The Anatomy of a Blockchain Prediction Market: Polymarket in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
    Zichao Yang, Kwok Ping Tsang · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  3. The AI Lemons Problem in the Prediction Markets
    Guojun He · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  4. Price Discovery Across Political Prediction Markets: Evidence From The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
    Emrehan Aktuğ, Orhan Torul · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  5. Unknown Rational Expectations: Evidence from NFL Prediction Markets
    Ayush Jha, James Kemper, Alejandro Abarca, Freddie Papazyan · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  6. Beyond Liquidity: Market Design, Contract Lifecycle, and Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets
    Anh Quang Lê · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  7. Beating the Earnings Game: Why Do Prediction Markets Outperform Professional Analysts?
    Daniel Rabetti, Jiaqi shao, Che Zhang · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  8. When Resolution Isn't Settlement: Payoff Measurement in Prediction Markets
    Hongzhen Du · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  9. Resolution-Aware Perpetual Futures on Binary Prediction Markets: An Empirical Risk-Design Framework Using Polymarket Data
    Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  10. A Taxonomy of Event-Linked Perpetual Futures: Variant Designs Beyond the Single-Market Binary Case
    Maksym Nechepurenko · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  11. The Microstructure of Conditional Prediction Markets: A Theory of Selection, Multiplicity, and Mode Collapse in Futarchy
    Balbinder Singh Gill · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  12. Optimal regulation of insider trading in prediction markets
    Balbinder Singh Gill · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  13. Beyond Liquidity: Market Design, Contract Lifecycle, and Informed Trading in Decentralized Prediction Markets
    Anh Quang Lê · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  14. Informational inertia in a decentralized prediction market: Evidence from the May 2024 CPI leak
    Emrehan Aktuğ, Orhan Torul · 2026 · Finance research letters
  15. Price Discovery across Political Prediction Markets: Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
    Emrehan Aktuğ, Orhan Torul · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  16. Retail-Adjusted Expected Value in Prediction Markets: Calibration, Longshot Bias, and Consumer Welfare
    Dung Cao · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  17. О сходимости прогнозов на рынках предсказаний
    Nina Badulina, Mikhail Valentinovich Zhitlukhin, D. V. Shatilovich · 2026 · Теория вероятностей и ее применения
  18. The Microstructure of Conditional Prediction Markets: A Theory of Selection, Multiplicity, and Mode Collapse in Futarchy
    Balbinder Singh Gill · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  19. When Do Prediction Markets Resolve Uncertainty? Belief Variation During Trading and Resolution Jumps on Polymarket
    Seiryu Ando · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  20. Axient: Debt-free Finality for Leveraged Binary Event Markets
    M. O. Nechepurenko · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  21. The Causal Partition of Information: Theory and Applications
    Hon Lun Yip · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  22. Efficient Prices, Inefficient Spreads: Attention and Liquidity in Prediction Markets
    Nic Saliou, Ivan Dubinin, Cong Zhang · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  23. Trading the Jump in Prediction Markets
    Balbinder Singh Gill · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  24. The Event Clock: Identifying Physical Information from State Prices
    Michael Hanke, Wolfgang Schadner, Sebastian Stöckl, Alex Weissensteiner · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  25. Underreaction, salience, and hot-hand beliefs in sports prediction markets: Evidence from Kalshi NBA and NFL event contracts
    Seung-Ju Lee, Ye-Chul Lee, Jaewook Lee · 2026 · Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance
  26. When Can Prediction Market Prices Be Trusted? Price Informativeness, Calibration, and Bias on Polymarket
    Felix Reichenbach, Martin Walther · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  27. Cryptocurrency prediction markets through the derivatives lens: Evidence from Kalshi and Polymarket
    Seungju Lee, Yebon Lee, Jaewook Lee · 2026 · International Review of Financial Analysis
  28. Limits to Arbitrage and Prediction Market Efficiency: the Case of PredictIt
    Eric W. Zitzewitz · 2026 · National Bureau of Economic Research
  29. Touch Must Dominate Digital: A Model-Free Bound Violated on Executable Quotes in a Permissionless Derivatives Market ⋆
    Gregor Albiez · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  30. Learning Before Scheduled Events: Prediction Markets, State Prices, and Option Valuation
    Michael Hanke, Wolfgang Schadner, Sebastian Stöckl, Alex Weissensteiner · 2026 · SSRN Electronic Journal
  31. Dwustronna aukcja kombinatoryczna na predykcyjnych rynkach kontraktów binarnych
    Waldemar Stronka · 2007