The illusion of predictability: How regression statistics mislead experts

Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1914185 · Cited by 48,524 · see citing works

On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

Carhart, M. M. (1997) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb03808.x · Cited by 17,283 · see citing works

Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach

Wooldridge, J. M. (1999) · Cited by 14,354 · see citing works

Nudge: improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness

(2008) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.46-0977 · Cited by 11,614 · see citing works

THE PERFORMANCE OF MUTUAL FUNDS IN THE PERIOD 1945–1964

Jensen, M. C. (1968) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1968.tb00815.x · Cited by 4,332 · see citing works

Belief in the law of small numbers.

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971) · Psychological Bulletin · doi:10.1037/h0031322 · Cited by 3,246 · see citing works

RATIONALITY AS PROCESS AND AS PRODUCT OF THOUGHT

Simon, H. A. (1988) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511598951.005 · Cited by 1,771 · see citing works

Helping Doctors and Patients Make Sense of Health Statistics

Gigerenzer, G., Gaissmaier, W., Kurz-Milcke, E., Schwartz, L. M., & Woloshin, S. (2007) · Psychological Science in the Public Interest · doi:10.1111/j.1539-6053.2008.00033.x · Cited by 1,336 · see citing works

Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk

Kahneman, D. J., & Tversky, A. (2000) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511803475.003 · Cited by 1,108 · see citing works

The cult of statistical significance: how the standard error costs us jobs, justice, and lives

(2008) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.46-0372 · Cited by 716 · see citing works

Prospect Theory in the Wild: Evidence from the Field

Camerer, C. F. (2000) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511803475.017 · Cited by 549 · see citing works

The Standard Error of Regressions

McCLOSKEY, D. N., & Ziliak, S. T. (1996) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 455 · see citing works

Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary

Hubbard, R., & Armstrong, J. (1994) · International Journal of Research in Marketing · doi:10.1016/0167-8116(94)90003-5 · Cited by 444 · see citing works

Size matters: the standard error of regressions in the American Economic Review

Ziliak, S. T., & McCLOSKEY, D. N. (2004) · The Journal of Socio-Economics · doi:10.1016/j.socec.2004.09.024 · Cited by 420 · see citing works

The Performance of Mutual Funds in the Period 1945-1964Preprint

Jensen, M. C. (2002) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.244153 · Cited by 270 · see citing works

KAJIAN PERSIAPAN SERTIFIKASI PENERAPAN HAZARD ANALYSIS CRITICAL CONTROL POINT (HACCP) PADA PROSES PRODUKSI PERUSAHAAN CIMOL BOJOT MOZZARELLA

Pramesti Cahyadewi, A. (2025) · Universitas Pasundan institutional repositories & scientific journals (Universitas Pasundan) · Cited by 145 · see citing works

Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals

Lawrence, M. J., & Makridakis, S. (1989) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/0749-5978(89)90049-6 · Cited by 120 · see citing works

WORLDWIDE ECONOMETRICS RANKINGS: 1989–2005

Baltagi, B. H. (2007) · Econometric Theory · doi:10.1017/s026646660707051x · Cited by 64 · see citing works

We Don't Quite Know What We Are Talking About

Goldstein, D. G., & Taleb, N. N. (2007) · The Journal of Portfolio Management · doi:10.3905/jpm.2007.690609 · Cited by 60 · see citing works

Sequentially simulated outcomes: Kind experience versus nontransparent description.

Hogarth, R. M., & Soyer, E. (2011) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/a0023265 · Cited by 53 · see citing works

Posterior odds ratios for regression hypotheses

Zellner, A. (1981) · Journal of Econometrics · doi:10.1016/0304-4076(81)90082-8 · Cited by 52 · see citing works

Significance tests harm progress in forecasting

Armstrong, J. S. (2007) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.03.004 · Cited by 21 · see citing works

Posterior odds ratios for regression hypotheses : General considerations and some specific results

Zellner, A. (n.d.) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 15 · see citing works

Null-hypothesis significance tests in behavioral and management research: We can do better

Schwab, A., & Starbuck, W. H. (2009) · Research methodology in strategy and management · doi:10.1108/s1479-8387(2009)0000005002 · Cited by 14 · see citing works

To test or not to test and if so, how?Comments on “size matters”

Zellner, A. (2004) · The Journal of Socio-Economics · doi:10.1016/s1053-5357(04)00091-5 · Cited by 12 · see citing works

Worldwide Econometrics Rankings: 1989-2005Preprint

Baltagi, B. H. (2011) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1815353 · Cited by 5 · see citing works

The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework

Camerer, C. F., & Hogarth, R. M. (1999) · Journal of Risk and Uncertainty · doi:10.1023/a:1007850605129

Hypothetical Outcome Plots Help Untrained Observers Judge Trends in Ambiguous Data

Kale, A., Nguyen, F., Kay, M., & Hullman, J. (2019) · IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics · doi:10.1109/tvcg.2018.2864909 · Cited by 122 · see citing works

Significance testing in empirical finance: a critical review and assessment

Kim, J. H., & Ji, P. I. (2015) · Journal of Empirical Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.08.006 · Cited by 86 · see citing works

Illusions in Regression Analysis

Armstrong, J. S. (2011) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1969740 · Cited by 73 · see citing works

An illusion of predictability in scientific results: Even experts confuse inferential uncertainty and outcome variability

Zhang, S., Heck, P. R., Meyer, M. N., Chabris, C. F., Goldstein, D. G., & Hofman, J. M. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2302491120 · Cited by 30 · see citing works

Radically open dialectical behaviour therapy for refractory depression: the RefraMED RCT

Lynch, T. R., Hempel, R. J., Whalley, B., Byford, S., Chamba, R., Clarke, P., Clarke, S., Kingdon, D., O’Mahen, H., Remington, B., et al. (2018) · Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation · doi:10.3310/eme05070 · Cited by 22 · see citing works

Visualizing uncertainty: On Soyer’s and Hogarth’s “The illusion of predictability: How regression statistics mislead experts”

Ziliak, S. T. (2012) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.02.004 · Cited by 8 · see citing works

Whose Variance Is It Anyway? Interpreting Empirical Models with State-Level Data

Gill, J. (2001) · State Politics & Policy Quarterly · doi:10.1177/153244000100100305 · Cited by 42 · see citing works

Communicating forecasts: The simplicity of simulated experience

Hogarth, R., & Soyer, E. (2015) · Journal of Business Research · doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.039 · Cited by 23 · see citing works

Quantitative research methods for professionals

Vogt, W. (2006) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 456 · see citing works

A Crash Course in Good and Bad ControlsPreprint

Cinelli, C., Forney, A., & Pearl, J. (2020) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3689437 · Cited by 109 · see citing works

The Implications of Parametric and Non-Parametric Statistics in Data Analysis in Marketing Research

Felix, O. E. (2015) · Cited by 4 · see citing works