Visualizing uncertainty: On Soyer’s and Hogarth’s “The illusion of predictability: How regression statistics mislead experts”
Open accessIntegrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
S&H recommend visual presentation and Ziliak adds support.
“S&H recommend visual presentation - and Ziliak (2012) adds support.”
From Illusions in Regression Analysis (2011) · cites this paper as Ziliak (2012)
Cites
The general theory of employment
Keynes, J. M. (1937) · The Quarterly Journal of Economics · doi:10.2307/1882087 · Cited by 5,173 · see citing works
The visual display of quantitative information
(1985) · General Pharmacology The Vascular System · doi:10.1016/0306-3623(85)90230-7 · Cited by 5,090 · see citing works
The black swan: the impact of the highly improbable
(2007) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.45-1430 · Cited by 3,456 · see citing works
The Visual Display of Quantitative Information.
Fayers, P. M., & Tufte, E. R. (1990) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) · doi:10.2307/2983122 · Cited by 1,950 · see citing works
Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research.
Edwards, W., Lindman, H., & Savage, L. J. (1963) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/h0044139 · Cited by 1,734 · see citing works
The Visual Display of Quantitative Information
Mulrow, E. (2002) · Technometrics · doi:10.1198/tech.2002.s78 · Cited by 1,546 · see citing works
The cult of statistical significance: how the standard error costs us jobs, justice, and lives
(2008) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.46-0372 · Cited by 716 · see citing works
“STUDENT” (1927) · Biometrika · doi:10.1093/biomet/19.1-2.151 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Picturing knowledge: historical and philosophical problems concerning the use of art in science
Baigrie, B. S. (1997) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.34-3280 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Karl Pearson: the scientific life in a statistical age
Pearson, K., Cohen, I. B., Norton, W. W., & Porter, T. M. (2004) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.42-0272 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Statistical Visions in Time: A History of Time Series Analysis 1662-1938
DSS, & Klein, J. L. (1999) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.2307/2669730 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Looking into pictures: An interdisciplinary approach to pictorial space.
Hecht, H., Schwartz, R. J., & Atherton, M. (2003) · Cited by 93 · see citing works
:Karl Pearson: The Scientific Life in a Statistical Age
Turner, F. M. (2005) · The American Historical Review · doi:10.1086/ahr.110.3.872 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
The illusion of predictability: How regression statistics mislead experts
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2012) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.02.002 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Student (1927) · Biometrika · doi:10.2307/2332181 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
'Student': A Statistical Biography of William Sealy Gosset.
Kemp, C. D., Pearson, E. S., Plackett, R. L., & Barnard, G. A. (1992) · Biometrics · doi:10.2307/2532762 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
9. Visual Models and Scientific Judgment
Giere, R. N. (1996) · University of Toronto Press eBooks · doi:10.3138/9781442678477-011 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Retrospectives: Guinnessometrics: The Economic Foundation of “Student's” t
Ziliak, S. T. (2008) · The Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.22.4.199 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Self-citationThe problem is beyond psychology: The real world is more random than regression analyses
Taleb, N. N., & Goldstein, D. G. (2012) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.02.003 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Statistics, Econometrics and Forecasting
Zellner, A. (2004) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511493188 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
On Methods of Ascertaining Variations in the Rate of Births, Deaths, and Marriages
Edgeworth, F. Y. (1885) · Journal of the Statistical Society of London · doi:10.2307/2979201 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
WHY DID MARSHALL TRANSPOSE THE AXES
Gordon, S. P. (1982) · RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Statistics, Econometrics and Forecasting
Leippold, M. (2005) · Journal of the American Statistical Association · doi:10.1198/jasa.2005.s49 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
2 of the 25 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Illusions in regression analysis
Armstrong, J. S. (2012) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.02.001 · Cited by 327 · see citing works
Significance testing in empirical finance: a critical review and assessment
Kim, J. H., & Ji, P. I. (2015) · Journal of Empirical Finance · doi:10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.08.006 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
Illusions in Regression Analysis
Armstrong, J. S. (2011) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1969740 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
MetaExplorer : Facilitating Reasoning with Epistemic Uncertainty in Meta-analysis
Kale, A. M., Lee, S., Goan, T., Tipton, E., & Hullman, J. R. (2023) · CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems · doi:10.1145/3544548.3580869 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
On The Change of Cost Risk and Uncertainty throughout the Life Cycle of Manufacturing Products
Schwabe, O., Erkoyuncu, J. A., & Shehab, E. (2019) · Procedia CIRP · doi:10.1016/j.procir.2020.01.004 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Soyer, E., & Hogarth, R. M. (2012) · International Journal of Forecasting · doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.02.006 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Big and Lean is Beautiful: A Conceptual Framework for Data-based Learning in Marketing Management
Soyer, E., Pauwels, K. H., & Seggie, S. H. (2019) · Review of Marketing Research · doi:10.1108/s1548-643520190000016006 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Econometrics and decision making: Effects of communication of results
Soyer, E. (2012) · LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas)
- Authors
- Ziliak, S. T.
- Affiliations
- Roosevelt University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Ziliak, Stephen T.
- ORCID
- Ziliak, Stephen T.
- Venue
- International Journal of Forecasting
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2012-07
- Volume
- 28
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 712-714
- ISSN
- 0169-2070 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3125624423
- Cited by
- 8
- References
- 25
- Citations by year
- 2023: 1 · 2019: 2 · 2015: 1 · 2012: 3
- FWCI
- 1.32
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Locations
- International Journal of Forecasting (publishedVersion)
- SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition › Data Visualization and Analytics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistics Education and Methodologies
- Keywords
- graphing, R-squared, t-statistic, statistical significance testing, Karl Pearson
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review