Cited by 55Data Visualization and AnalyticsVisual and Cognitive Learning ProcessesStatistics Education and Methodologies

Imagining Replications: Graphical Prediction & Discrete Visualizations Improve Recall & Estimation of Effect Uncertainty

Hullman, Jessica, Kay, Matthew, Kim, Yea-Seul, Shrestha, Samana·2018·IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics

Abstract

People often have erroneous intuitions about the results of uncertain processes, such as scientific experiments. Many uncertainty visualizations assume considerable statistical knowledge, but have been shown to prompt erroneous conclusions even when users possess this knowledge. Active learning approaches been shown to improve statistical reasoning, but are rarely applied in visualizing uncertainty in scientific reports. We present a controlled study to evaluate the impact of an interactive, graphical uncertainty prediction technique for communicating uncertainty in experiment results. Using our technique, users sketch their prediction of the uncertainty in experimental effects prior to viewing the true sampling distribution from an experiment. We find that having a user graphically predict the possible effects from experiment replications is an effective way to improve one's ability to make predictions about replications of new experiments. Additionally, visualizing uncertainty as a set of discrete outcomes, as opposed to a continuous probability distribution, can improve recall of a sampling distribution from a single experiment. Our work has implications for various applications where it is important to elicit peoples' estimates of probability distributions and to communicate uncertainty effectively.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1109/tvcg.2017.2743898

Cites

62 of 62 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Recomputing p-values needs the paper’s full text.

Claims the paper makes

This paper’s full text isn’t openly available, so its claims and self-check weren’t run. The registry and citation checks still apply.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Hullman, J., Kay, M., Kim, Y.-S., & Shrestha, S.
Affiliations
  • University of Washington (US)
  • University of Michigan (US)
  • Vassar College (US)
Venue
IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics
Published
2018-01
Volume
24
Issue
1
Pages
446-456
ISSN
1077-2626 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2750605487
Cited by
55
References
62
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2025: 5 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 10 · 2021: 10 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 6
FWCI
2.16
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
  • IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition › Data Visualization and Analytics
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Visual and Cognitive Learning Processes
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistics Education and Methodologies
Keywords
uncertainty visualization, replication of experiments, sampling distribution, effect size estimation, statistical reasoning, active learning, scientific reporting

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review