A Risk Calculator to Predict the Individual Risk of Conversion From Subthreshold Bipolar Symptoms to Bipolar Disorder I or II in Youth
Open accessAbstract
Objective Youth with subthreshold mania are at increased risk of conversion to bipolar disorder (BP) I/II. Predictors for conversion have been published for the group as a whole. However, risk factors are heterogeneous, indicating the need for personalized risk assessment.Method One hundred forty youth with BP not otherwise specified (BP-NOS; 6-17 years old) followed through the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study with at least 1 follow-up assessment before conversion to BP-I/II were included. Youths were assessed on average every 7 months (median 11.5 years) using standard instruments. Risk predictors reported in the literature were used to build a 5-year risk calculator. Discrimination was measured using the time-dependent area under the curve after 1,000 bootstrap resamples. Calibration was evaluated by comparing observed with predicted probability of conversion. External validation was performed using an independent sample of 58 youths with BP-NOS recruited from the Pittsburgh Bipolar Offspring Study.Results Seventy-five (53.6%) COBY youths with BP-NOS converted to BP-I/II, of which 57 (76.0%) converted within 5 years. Earlier-onset BP-NOS, familial hypomania/mania, and high mania, anxiety, and mood lability symptoms were important predictors of conversion. The calculator showed excellent consistency between the predicted and observed risks of conversion, good discrimination between converters and non-converters (area under the curve 0.71, CI 0.67-0.74), and a proportionally increasing rate of converters at each successive risk class. Discrimination in the external validation sample was good (area under the curve 0.75).Conclusion If replicated, the risk calculator would provide a useful tool to predict personalized risk of conversion from subsyndromal mania to BP-I/II and inform individualized interventions and research.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The Birmaher et al. model predicts onset of BD-I or BD-II from sub-threshold BD with an AUC of 0.71 in the development sample (n=140, mean age 11.9, US).
“140 (11.9, US); 0.71 (AUC) 304”
From Preventive psychiatry: a blueprint for improving the mental health of young people (2021) · cites this paper as [304]
The Birmaher et al. model has external validation AUC of 0.76 (n=58, mean age 11.9, US).
“58 (11.9, US); 0.76 (AUC) 304”
From Preventive psychiatry: a blueprint for improving the mental health of young people (2021) · cites this paper as [304]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
KAUFMAN, J., BIRMAHER, B., BRENT, D., RAO, U., FLYNN, C., MORECI, P., WILLIAMSON, D., & RYAN, N. (1997) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1097/00004583-199707000-00021 · Cited by 10,148 · see citing works
Self-citation(1991) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 8,071 · see citing works
General Cardiovascular Risk Profile for Use in Primary Care: The Framingham Heart Study
D’Agostino, R. B., Vasan, R. S., Pencina, M. J., Wolf, P. A., Cobain, M., Massaro, J. M., & Kannel, W. B. (2008) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/circulationaha.107.699579 · Cited by 7,491 · see citing works
Four Factor Index of Social Status
Paschou, R. (1975) · Cited by 6,989 · see citing works
Four Factor Index of Social Status [1975]
Hollingshead, A. B. (1975) · Cited by 5,151 · see citing works
The Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-III-R (SCID): I: History, Rationale, and Description
Spitzer, R. L. (1992) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1992.01820080032005 · Cited by 4,336 · see citing works
A Children's Global Assessment Scale (CGAS)
Shaffer, D. (1983) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1983.01790100074010 · Cited by 3,716 · see citing works
Time‐Dependent ROC Curves for Censored Survival Data and a Diagnostic Marker
Heagerty, P. J., Lumley, T., & PEPE, M. S. (2000) · Biometrics · doi:10.1111/j.0006-341x.2000.00337.x · Cited by 2,870 · see citing works
BIRMAHER, B., BRENT, D. A., CHIAPPETTA, L., BRIDGE, J., MONGA, S., & BAUGHER, M. (1999) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1097/00004583-199910000-00011 · Cited by 2,252 · see citing works
Self-citationA multivariate technique for multiply imputing missing values using a sequence of regression models
Raghunathan, T. E., Lepkowski, J. M., Hoewyk, J. V., & Solenberger, P. W. (2001) · Survey methodology · Cited by 1,981 · see citing works
The Family History Method Using Diagnostic Criteria
Andreasen, N. C. (1977) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1977.01770220111013 · Cited by 1,903 · see citing works
Keller, M. B. (1987) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1987.01800180050009 · Cited by 1,643 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Assessment of Affective Disorders in Children and Adolescents by Semistructured Interview
Chambers, W. J. (1985) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.1985.01790300064008 · Cited by 1,272 · see citing works
Angst, J., Gamma, A., Benazzi, F., Ajdacic‐Gross, V., Eich, D., & Wulf Rössler, A. (2002) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/s0165-0327(02)00322-1 · Cited by 889 · see citing works
Lewinsohn, P. M., Klein, D. N., & Seeley, J. R. (1995) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1097/00004583-199504000-00012 · Cited by 778 · see citing works
Family, twin, and adoption studies of bipolar disorder
Smoller, J. W., & Finn, C. T. (2003) · American Journal of Medical Genetics Part C Seminars in Medical Genetics · doi:10.1002/ajmg.c.20013 · Cited by 714 · see citing works
Clinical Course of Children and Adolescents With Bipolar Spectrum Disorders
Birmaher, B. B., Axelson, D., Strober, M. A., Gill, M. K., Valeri, S. M., Chiappetta, L., Ryan, N. D., Leonard, H., Hunt, J., Iyengar, S., et al. (2006) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.63.2.175 · Cited by 658 · see citing works
Self-citationBrief Screening for Family Psychiatric History: The Family History Screen
Weissman, M. M. (2000) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.57.7.675 · Cited by 604 · see citing works
An Individualized Risk Calculator for Research in Prodromal Psychosis
Cannon, T. D., Yu, C., Addington, J., Bearden, C. E., Cadenhead, K. S., Cornblatt, B. A., Heinssen, R., Jeffries, C. D., Mathalon, D. H., McGlashan, T. H., et al. (2016) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.2016.15070890 · Cited by 574 · see citing works
Phenomenology of Children and Adolescents With Bipolar Spectrum Disorders
Axelson, D., Birmaher, B. B., Strober, M., Gill, M. K., Valeri, S. M., Chiappetta, L., Ryan, N. D., Leonard, H., Hunt, J., Iyengar, S., et al. (2006) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archpsyc.63.10.1139 · Cited by 519 · see citing works
Self-citationStructured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV (SCID)
Kübler, U. (2013) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-1-4419-1005-9_66 · Cited by 445 · see citing works
Birmaher, B., Axelson, D., Monk, K., Kalas, C., Goldstein, B., Hickey, M. B., Obreja, M., Ehmann, M., Iyengar, S., Shamseddeen, W., et al. (2009) · Archives of General Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/archgenpsychiatry.2008.546 · Cited by 360 · see citing works
Self-citationAxelson, D., Birmaher, B. B., Brent, D. A., Wassick, S., Hoover, C., Bridge, J. A., & Ryan, N. D. (2003) · Journal of Child and Adolescent Psychopharmacology · doi:10.1089/104454603322724850 · Cited by 313 · see citing works
Self-citationBipolar disorder during adolescence and young adulthood in a community sample
Lewinsohn, P. M., Klein, D. N., & Seeley, J. R. (2000) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1034/j.1399-5618.2000.20309.x · Cited by 302 · see citing works
Axelson, D., Goldstein, B. I., Goldstein, T. R., Monk, K., Yu, H., Hickey, M. B., Sakolsky, D. J., Diler, R. S., Hafeman, D., Merranko, J. A., et al. (2015) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.2014.14010035 · Cited by 263 · see citing works
Self-citationAxelson, D., Birmaher, B. B., Strober, M. A., Goldstein, B. I., Ha, W., Gill, M. K., Goldstein, T. R., Yen, S., Hower, H. M., Hunt, J., et al. (2011) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jaac.2011.07.005 · Cited by 247 · see citing works
Self-citationFusar-Poli, P., Rutigliano, G., Stahl, D., Davies, C., Bonoldi, I., Reilly, T., & McGuire, P. (2017) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2017.0284 · Cited by 246 · see citing works
Ankerst, D. P., Hoefler, J., Bock, S., Goodman, P. J., Vickers, A., Hernandez, J., Sokoll, L. J., Sanda, M. G., Wei, J. T., Leach, R. J., et al. (2014) · Urology · doi:10.1016/j.urology.2014.02.035 · Cited by 236 · see citing works
Hafeman, D. M., Merranko, J., Axelson, D., Goldstein, B. I., Goldstein, T., Monk, K., Hickey, M. B., Sakolsky, D., Diler, R., Iyengar, S., et al. (2016) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.2015.15040414 · Cited by 212 · see citing works
Self-citationVan Meter, A. R., Burke, C., Youngstrom, E. A., Faedda, G. L., & Correll, C. U. (2016) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jaac.2016.04.017 · Cited by 174 · see citing works
Hafeman, D., Merranko, J. A., Goldstein, T. R., Axelson, D., Goldstein, B. I., Monk, K., Hickey, M. B., Sakolsky, D. J., Diler, R. S., Iyengar, S., et al. (2017) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2017.1763 · Cited by 173 · see citing works
Self-citationCarrión, R. E., Cornblatt, B. A., Burton, C. Z., Tso, I. F., Auther, A. M., Adelsheim, S., Calkins, R., Carter, C. S., Niendam, T., Sale, T. G., et al. (2016) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.2016.15121565 · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Birmaher, B. B., Gill, M. K., Axelson, D., Goldstein, B. I., Goldstein, T. R., Yu, H., Liao, F., Iyengar, S., Diler, R. S., Strober, M. A., et al. (2014) · American Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/appi.ajp.2014.13121577 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Children's Affective Lability Scale: A psychometric evaluation of reliability
Gerson, A. C., Gerring, J. P., Freund, L. S., Joshi, P. T., Capozzoli, J. A., Brady, K., & DENCKLA, M. B. (1996) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/s0165-1781(96)02851-x · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Correll, C. U., Hauser, M., Penzner, J. B., Auther, A. M., Kafantaris, V., Saito, E., Olvet, D. M., Carrión, R. E., Birmaher, B. B., Chang, K., et al. (2014) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1111/bdi.12194 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Self-citationTijssen, M. J. A., van Os, J., Wïttchen, H., Lieb, R., Beesdo‐Baum, K., Mengelers, R., & Wichers, M. (2010) · The British Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1192/bjp.bp.109.065763 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Precursors of Bipolar Disorders
Faedda, G. L., Marangoni, C., Serra, G., Salvatore, P., Sani, G., Vázquez, G. H., Tondo, L., Girardi, P., Baldessarini, R. J., & Koukopoulos, A. (2015) · The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry · doi:10.4088/jcp.13r08900 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Clinical course of children with a depressive spectrum disorder and transient manic symptoms
Nadkarni, R., & Fristad, M. A. (2010) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1111/j.1399-5618.2010.00847.x · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Regeer, E. J., A, L. K. M., de Graaf, R., ten Have, M., Nolen, W. A., & van Os, J. (2006) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291705006823 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
Risk Prediction Models in Psychiatry
Bernardini, F., Attademo, L., Cleary, S. D., Luther, C. W., Shim, R. S., Quartesan, R., & Compton, M. T. (2016) · The Journal of Clinical Psychiatry · doi:10.4088/jcp.15r10003 · Cited by 70 · see citing works
Differentiating Bipolar Disorder–Not Otherwise Specified and Severe Mood Dysregulation
Towbin, K. E., Axelson, D., Leibenluft, E., & Birmaher, B. B. (2013) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jaac.2013.02.006 · Cited by 68 · see citing works
Self-citationWells, B. J., Kattan, M. W., Cooper, G. S., Jackson, L. W., & Koroukian, S. M. (2014) · The Journal of the American Board of Family Medicine · doi:10.3122/jabfm.2014.01.130040 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
Mood lability among offspring of parents with bipolar disorder and community controls
Birmaher, B., Goldstein, B. I., Axelson, D., Monk, K., Hickey, M., Fan, J., Iyengar, S., Ha, W., Diler, R., Goldstein, T., et al. (2013) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1111/bdi.12060 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Self-citationTripepi, G. L., Heinze, G., Jager, K. J., Stel, V. S., Dekker, F. W., & Zoccali, C. (2013) · Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation · doi:10.1093/ndt/gft095 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Hafeman, D., Axelson, D., Demeter, C., Findling, R. L., Fristad, M. A., Kowatch, R. A., Youngstrom, E. A., Horwitz, S. M., Arnold, L. E., Frazier, T. W., et al. (2013) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1111/bdi.12054 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Self-citationEffectiveness of Personalized and Interactive Health Risk Calculators
Harle, C. A., Downs, J. S., & Padman, R. (2012) · Medical Decision Making · doi:10.1177/0272989x11431736 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
Hosmer and Lemeshow type Goodness-of-Fit Statistics for the Cox Proportional Hazards Model
May, S. J., & Hosmer, D. W. (2003) · Handbook of statistics · doi:10.1016/s0169-7161(03)23021-2 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Ethical considerations in preventive interventions for bipolar disorder
Ratheesh, A., Cotton, S., Davey, C. G., Adams, S., Bechdolf, A., Macneil, C. A., Berk, M., & McGorry, P. D. (2016) · Early Intervention in Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/eip.12340 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Kolko, D. J., Baumann, B., Bukstein, O. G., & Brown, E. J. (2007) · Journal of Child and Family Studies · doi:10.1007/s10826-006-9120-3 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Wozniak, J. R., Uchida, M., Faraone, S. V., Fitzgerald, M., Vaudreuil, C., Carrellas, N. W., Davis, J., Wolenski, R. A., & Biederman, J. (2017) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1111/bdi.12494 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Construction of longitudinal prediction targets using semisupervised learning
Jo, B., Findling, R. L., Hastie, T. J., Youngstrom, E. A., Wang, C.-P., Arnold, L. E., Fristad, M. A., Frazier, T. W., Birmaher, B. B., Gill, M. K., et al. (2017) · Statistical Methods in Medical Research · doi:10.1177/0962280216684163 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationHarrell, F., Jr. (1996) · doi:10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19960229)15:4
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Preventive psychiatry: a blueprint for improving the mental health of young people
Fusar‐Poli, P., Correll, C. U., Arango, C., Berk, M., Patel, V., & Ioannidis, J. P. A. (2021) · World Psychiatry · doi:10.1002/wps.20869 · Cited by 497 · see citing works
Towards a youth mental health paradigm: a perspective and roadmap
Uhlhaas, P. J., Davey, C. G., Mehta, U. M., Shah, J., Torous, J., Allen, N. B., Avenevoli, S., Bella-Awusah, T., Chanen, A., Chen, E. Y. H., et al. (2023) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41380-023-02202-z · Cited by 318 · see citing works
Passos, I. C., Ballester, P. L., Barros, R. C., Librenza‐Garcia, D., Mwangi, B., Birmaher, B. B., Brietzke, E. M., Hájek, T., López‐Jaramillo, C., Mansur, R. B., et al. (2019) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1111/bdi.12828 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Self-citationMiklowitz, D. J., Schneck, C. D., Walshaw, P. D., Singh, M. K., Sullivan, A. E., Suddath, R. L., Forgey Borlik, M., Sugar, C. A., & Chang, K. D. (2020) · JAMA Psychiatry · doi:10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2019.4520 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Rocha, T. B.-M., Fisher, H. L., Caye, A., Anselmi, L., Arseneault, L., Barros, F. C., Caspi, A., Danese, A., Gonçalves, H., Harrington, H., et al. (2020) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jaac.2019.12.004 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Siegel, J. E., Bertocci, M. A., Wu, B. B., Phillips, M. L., Strakowski, S. M., & Almeida, J. (2022) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1111/bdi.13176 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Weintraub, M. J., Zinberg, J. L., Bearden, C. E., & Miklowitz, D. J. (2019) · Cognitive and Behavioral Practice · doi:10.1016/j.cbpra.2019.07.007 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Uher, R., Pavlová, B., Najafi, S., Adepalli, N., Ross, B., Vallis, E. H., Freeman, K., Parker, R. M. N., Propper, L., & Palaniyappan, L. K. (2024) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2024.105625 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
The critical need for help-seeking controls in clinical high-risk research
Millman, Z. B., Gold, J. M., Mittal, V. A., & Schiffman, J. (2019) · Clinical Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/2167702619855660 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Toward prevention of bipolar disorder in at-risk children: Potential strategies ahead of the data
Post, R. M., Goldstein, B. I., Birmaher, B., Findling, R. L., Frey, B. N., DelBello, M. P., & Miklowitz, D. J. (2020) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2020.03.025 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Self-citationEarly identification of bipolar disorder among young adults – a 22‐year community birth cohort
Rabelo‐da‐Ponte, F. D., Feiten, J. G., Mwangi, B., Barros, F. C., Wehrmeister, F. C., Menezes, A. M. B., Kapczinski, F. P., Passos, I. C., & Kunz, M. (2020) · Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica · doi:10.1111/acps.13233 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Menculini, G., Balducci, P. M., Attademo, L., Bernardini, F., Moretti, P., & Tortorella, A. A. V. (2020) · Medicina · doi:10.3390/medicina56120689 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Psychosocial Treatments for Bipolar Disorder in Children and Adolescents
Brickman, H. M., & Fristad, M. A. (2022) · Annual Review of Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev-clinpsy-072220-021237 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Hower, H. M., LaMarre, A., Bachner‐Melman, R., Harrop, E. N., McGilley, B., & Kenny, T. E. (2022) · Journal of Eating Disorders · doi:10.1186/s40337-022-00678-8 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Self-citationRisk Calculators in Bipolar Disorder: A Systematic Review
Silva Ribeiro, J., Pereira, D., Salagre, E., Coroa, M., Santos Oliveira, P., Santos, V., Madeira, N., Grande, I., & Vieta, E. (2020) · Brain Sciences · doi:10.3390/brainsci10080525 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
de Pablo, G. S., Cabras, A., Pereira, J. F., Santos, H. C., Ruiz, H. D. D., Catalán, A., González-Pinto, A. M., Birmaher, B. B., Correll, C. U., & Fusar‐Poli, P. (2023) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2023.01.045 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Self-citationCarpenter, J. S., Scott, J. L., Iorfino, F., Crouse, J. J., Ho, N., Hermens, D. F., Cross, S. P. M., Naismith, S. L., Guastella, A. J., Scott, E. M., et al. (2020) · Psychological Medicine · doi:10.1017/s0033291720003840 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
MacNeill, L. A., Allen, N. B., Poleon, R. B., Vargas, T., Osborne, K. J., Damme, K. S. F., Barch, D. M., Krogh‐Jespersen, S., Nielsen, A. N., Norton, E. S., et al. (2021) · Development and Psychopathology · doi:10.1017/s0954579421000651 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Mood Instability in Youth at High Risk for Bipolar Disorder
Miklowitz, D. J., Weintraub, M. J., Singh, M. K., Walshaw, P. D., Merranko, J. A., Birmaher, B. B., Chang, K., & Schneck, C. D. (2022) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jaac.2022.03.009 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Self-citationPsychological interventions for young people at risk for bipolar disorder: A systematic review
Perich, T., & Mitchell, P. B. (2019) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2019.04.058 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Weintraub, M. J., Denenny, D. M., Ichinose, M. C., Zinberg, J. L., Morgan-Fleming, G. M., Done, M. E., Brown, R. D., Bearden, C. E., & Miklowitz, D. J. (2023) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/ccp0000782 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Birmaher, B. B., Merranko, J. A., Gill, M. K., Hafeman, D., Goldstein, T. R., Goldstein, B. I., Hower, H. M., Strober, M. A., Axelson, D., Ryan, N. D., et al. (2020) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jaac.2019.12.005 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Self-citationMartini, J., Bröckel, K. L., Leopold, K., Berndt, C., Sauer, C., Maicher, B., Juckel, G., Krüger‐Özgürdal, S., Fallgatter, A. J., Lambert, M., et al. (2023) · European Neuropsychopharmacology · doi:10.1016/j.euroneuro.2023.10.001 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Miklowitz, D. J., Weintraub, M. J., Posta, F., Walshaw, P. D., Frey, S. J., Morgan-Fleming, G. M., Wilkerson, C. A., Denenny, D. M., & Arevian, A. C. (2020) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2020.12.012 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Weintraub, M. J., Schneck, C. D., Posta, F., Merranko, J. A., Singh, M. K., Chang, K., & Miklowitz, D. J. (2022) · Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology · doi:10.1037/ccp0000708 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Self-citationA risk calculator to predict suicide attempts among individuals with early‐onset bipolar disorder
Goldstein, T. R., Merranko, J. A., Hafeman, D., Gill, M. K., Liao, F., Sewall, C. J. R., Hower, H. M., Weinstock, L. M., Yen, S., Goldstein, B. I., et al. (2022) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1111/bdi.13250 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationTransitioning to bipolar disorder: A systematic review of prospective high-risk studies
Keramatian, K., Chakrabarty, T., Saraf, G., & Yatham, L. N. (2021) · Current Opinion in Psychiatry · doi:10.1097/yco.0000000000000762 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Berthelot, N., Garon‐Bissonnette, J., Jomphe, V., Doucet-Beaupré, H., Bureau, A., & Maziade, M. (2022) · Schizophrenia Bulletin Open · doi:10.1093/schizbullopen/sgac017 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Weintraub, M. J., Schneck, C. D., Walshaw, P. D., Chang, K., Sullivan, A. E., Singh, M. K., & Miklowitz, D. J. (2020) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2020.08.018 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Fico, G., Oliva, V., Prisco, M. D., Giménez‐Palomo, A., Sagué‐Vilavella, M., Gomes‐da‐Costa, S., Garriga, M., Solé, E., Valentí, M., Fanelli, G., et al. (2022) · European Neuropsychopharmacology · doi:10.1016/j.euroneuro.2022.05.004 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
25 Years of the International Bipolar Collaborative Network (BCN)
Post, R. M., Altshuler, L. L., Kupka, R., McElroy, S. L., Frye, M. A., Grunze, H., Suppes, T. M., Keck, P. E., & Nolen, W. A. (2021) · International Journal of Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1186/s40345-020-00218-w · Cited by 15 · see citing works
van Houtum, L. A. E. M., Baaré, W. F. C., Beckmann, C. F., Castro‐Fornieles, J., Cecil, C. A. M., Dittrich, J., Ebdrup, B. H., Fegert, J. M., Havdahl, A., Hillegers, M. H. J., et al. (2024) · European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1007/s00787-024-02423-9 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Wakschlag, L. S., MacNeill, L. A., Pool, L. R., Smith, J. D., Adam, H., Barch, D. M., Norton, E. S., Rogers, C. E., Ahuvia, I. L., Smyser, C. D., et al. (2023) · Journal of Clinical Child & Adolescent Psychology · doi:10.1080/15374416.2023.2188553 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Sun, H., Yan, R., Hua, L., Xia, Y. X., Chen, Z., Huang, Y., Wang, X., Xia, Q., Yao, Z., & Lü, Q. (2024) · Journal of Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2024.01.028 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Keown‐Stoneman, C. D. G., Goodday, S., Preisig, M., Vandeleur, C. L., Castelao, E., Grof, P., Horrocks, J., King, N., & Duffy, A. C. (2021) · EClinicalMedicine · doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2021.101083 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Santos, J. P. L., Versace, A., Stiffler, R. S., Aslam, H. A., Lockovich, J., Bonar, L. K., Bertocci, M. A., Iyengar, S., Bebko, G. M., Skeba, A. S., et al. (2022) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2022.03.039 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationDelBello, M. P. (2018) · Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/j.jaac.2018.07.871 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
de Pablo, G. S., Raduà, J., Frearson, G., Young, A. H., Arango, C., Kelleher, I., Sharma, A., Uhlhaas, P. J., Solmi, M., Fusar‐Poli, P., et al. (2025) · Molecular Psychiatry · doi:10.1038/s41380-025-03244-1 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Arribas, M., Micheli, A. D., Krakowski, K., Stahl, D. R., Correll, C. U., Young, A. H., Andreassen, O. A., Vieta, E., Arango, C., McGuire, P. K., et al. (2025) · The Lancet Psychiatry · doi:10.1016/s2215-0366(25)00307-4 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Diler, R. S., Merranko, J. A., Hafeman, D., Goldstein, T. R., Goldstein, B. I., Hower, H. M., Gill, M. K., Axelson, D., Ryan, N. D., Strober, M. A., et al. (2022) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2022.01.058 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationWeintraub, M. J., Schneck, C. D., Walshaw, P. D., Chang, K., Singh, M. K., Axelson, D., Birmaher, B. B., & Miklowitz, D. J. (2020) · Journal of Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2020.01.010 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationFung, A., Loutet, M. G., Roth, D. E., Wong, E., Gill, P. J., Morris, S. K., & Beyene, J. (2024) · Academic Pediatrics · doi:10.1016/j.acap.2024.03.016 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Validation of a youth suicide risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder
Fiedorowicz, J. G., Merranko, J. A., Goldstein, T. R., Hower, H. M., Iyengar, S., Hafeman, D., Hunt, J., Strober, M. A., Keller, M. B., Goldstein, B. I., et al. (2023) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2023.11.066 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationValidation of the youth mood recurrences risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder
Fiedorowicz, J. G., Merranko, J. A., Iyengar, S., Hower, H. M., Gill, M. K., Yen, S., Goldstein, T. R., Strober, M. A., Hafeman, D., Keller, M. B., et al. (2021) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2021.09.037 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationMapping multimodal risk factors to mental health outcomes
Jirsaraie, R. J., Barch, D. M., Bogdan, R., Marek, S. A., Bijsterbosch, J. D., Sotiras, A., & Karcher, N. R. (2025) · Nature Mental Health · doi:10.1038/s44220-025-00500-9 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Rabelo‐da‐Ponte, F. D., Marchionatti, L. E., Watts, D., Roza, T. H., Amoretti, S., Barros, F. C., Wehrmeister, F. C., Gonçalves, H., Menezes, A. M. B., Kunz, M., et al. (2023) · Journal of Psychiatric Research · doi:10.1016/j.jpsychires.2023.11.018 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Liu, T., Xu, G., Lu, W., Zhang, R., Chen, K., McIntyre, R. S., Teopiz, K. M., So, K., & Lin, K. (2021) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2021.01.061 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Maassen, E. F., Maathuis, L., Regeer, B. J., Kupka, R., & Regeer, E. J. (2024) · International Journal of Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1186/s40345-024-00360-9 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
A prognostic model for predicting functional impairment in youth mental health services
Iorfino, F., Oliveira, R., Cripps, S., Marchant, R., Varidel, M., Capon, W., Crouse, J. J., Prodan, A., Scott, E. M., Scott, J. L., et al. (2024) · European Psychiatry · doi:10.1192/j.eurpsy.2024.1787 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Social impairment in relation to clinical symptoms in youth at high risk for bipolar disorder
Weintraub, M. J., Keenan‐Miller, D., Schneck, C. D., Borlik, M. F., Suddath, R., Marvin, S. E., Singh, M. K., Chang, K., & Miklowitz, D. J. (2021) · Early Intervention in Psychiatry · doi:10.1111/eip.13124 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
de la Peña, F. R., Rosetti, M., Palacio, J. D., Palacios‐Cruz, L., & Ulloa, R. E. (2021) · The Canadian Journal of Psychiatry · doi:10.1177/07067437211004893 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Miklowitz, D. J., Weintraub, M. J., Walshaw, P. D., Schneck, C. D., Chang, K., Merranko, J. A., Garrett, A. S., & Singh, M. K. (2023) · Current Neuropharmacology · doi:10.2174/1570159x21666230111120817 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Self-citationStaging the bipolar disorders: Are early stages at too early a stage for intervention?
Parker, G. B. (2022) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1111/bdi.13256 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Prevention of Bipolar Disorder: Are We Almost There?
Sanches, M., & Soares, J. C. (2020) · Current Behavioral Neuroscience Reports · doi:10.1007/s40473-020-00203-8 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Rajula, H. S. R., Manchia, M., Agarwal, K., Akingbuwa, W. A., Allegrini, A. G., Diemer, E. W., Doering, S., Haan, E., Jami, E. S., Karhunen, V., et al. (2021) · European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry · doi:10.1007/s00787-020-01713-2 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Bureau, A., Berthelot, N., Ricard, J., Lafrance, C., Jomphe, V., Dioni, A., Fortin‐Fabbro, É., Boisvert, M., & Maziade, M. (2023) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1111/bdi.13386 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Miklowitz, D. J., Weintraub, M. J., Denenny, D. M., Merranko, J. A., & Hooley, J. M. (2025) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2025.119620 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationHigh risk for psychiatric disorders in bipolar offspring. A four years prospective study
Eraso-Osorio, J. J., Palacio-Ortíz, J. D., Quintero-Cadavid, C. P., Estrada-Jaramillo, S., Carrillo, R. A., Gómez-Cano, S., Valencia, J. G., Aguirre–Acevedo, D. C., Duque-Rios, P. A., Echeverry, J. V., et al. (2020) · Revista Colombiana de Psiquiatría · doi:10.1016/j.rcp.2020.01.008 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Debate: Pediatric bipolar disorder – divided by a common language?
Stringaris, A. K. (2019) · Child and Adolescent Mental Health · doi:10.1111/camh.12314 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
A Risk Calculator to Predict Suicide Attempts Among Individuals With Early-Onset Bipolar Disorder
Goldstein, T. R., Merranko, J. A., Hafeman, D., Gill, M. K., Liao, F., Sewall, C. J. R., Hower, H. M., Weinstock, L. M., Yen, S., Goldstein, B. I., et al. (2023) · FOCUS The Journal of Lifelong Learning in Psychiatry · doi:10.1176/appi.focus.23021023 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Self-citationWorking with Children and Adolescents with Bipolar Disorder
Stefana, A., & Youngstrom, E. A. (2024) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-63349-2_25 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Simutkin, G. G. (2024) · V M BEKHTEREV REVIEW OF PSYCHIATRY AND MEDICAL PSYCHOLOGY · doi:10.31363/2313-7053-2024-902 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Zhang, X.-F., Lin, T., Zhang, G., Chen, J., Wang, X., Zhang, W., Zhang, X., Sun, J., Li, W., Liu, Y., et al. (2025) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1111/bdi.70014 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Bonnin, C. M., Montejo, L., Torrent, C., Sánchez‐Moreno, J., de Diego-Adeliño, J., Solé, B., Tutusaus, X. R., Mazzei, D. H. , Borràs, R., Clougher, D., et al. (2026) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2026.121442 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Osipova, N. N., Bardenshteyn, L. M., Lyamets, L. L., & Dmitrieva, E. V. (2022) · Bulletin of Siberian Medicine · doi:10.20538/1682-0363-2022-2-105-114 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Reorienting Latent Variable Modeling for Supervised Learning
Jo, B., Hastie, T. J., Li, Z., Youngstrom, E. A., Findling, R. L., & Horwitz, S. M. (2023) · Multivariate Behavioral Research · doi:10.1080/00273171.2023.2182753 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Ribeiro-Fernández, M., Díez‐Suárez, A., Chang, K., & Soutullo, C. A. (2024) · Journal of Clinical Medicine · doi:10.3390/jcm13195656 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
At-risk mental states for bipolar disorder
Farrow, J. E., Nery, F. G., Patino, L. R., & DelBello, M. P. (2020) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-819182-8.00020-x
Charatcharungkiat, N., Luby, J. L., Tillman, R., & Vogel, A. C. (2021) · Bipolar Disorders · doi:10.1111/bdi.13046
General genetics of bipolar disorder
Nürnberger, J. I. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/med/9780197574522.003.0011 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Neuroimaging studies of bipolar disorder in youth
Singh, M. K., & DelBello, M. P. (2022) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/med/9780197574522.003.0007
Brickman, H. M., Young, A. S., & Fristad, M. A. (2023) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-323-91497-0.00195-8
Hoertel, N., Dosquet, M., Rico, M. S., Godino-Cruz, J., Blanco, C., Aubin, H., Ducoutumany, G., Gorwood, P. A. P. M., Leleu, H., Airagnes, G., et al. (2024) · International Journal of Mental Health and Addiction · doi:10.1007/s11469-024-01278-0
Bulik, C. M., Barnhart, W. R., Feusner, J. D., Flatt, R. E., Munn‐Chernoff, M. A., Ortiz, S. N., Pisetsky, E. M., Presskreischer, R., Thornton, L. M., & Yılmaz, Z. (2024) · International Journal of Eating Disorders · doi:10.1002/eat.24327
Pediatric Bipolar Disorder: Phenomenology, Differential Diagnosis, and Course
Birmaher, B. B., Diler, R. S., Gill, M. K., Hafeman, D., Goldstein, T. R., & Sakolsky, D. J. (2025) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-85519-1_35
Self-citationCortical structural signatures for early identification of bipolar disorder from depressive episode
Sun, H., Shen, N., Chen, Z., Sheng, J., Yan, R., Zou, H., Tian, S., Hua, L., Wang, Y., Wang, X., et al. (2025) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2025.120077
Additional file 1 of 25 Years of the International Bipolar Collaborative Network (BCN)
Post, R. M., Altshuler, L. L., Kupka, R., McElroy, S. L., Frye, M. A., Heinz Grunze, A., Suppes, T. M., Keck, P. E., & Nolen, W. A. (2021) · Figshare · doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.14368841
Sun, H., Shen, N., Xia, Y. X., Chen, Z., Yan, R., Wang, T. W., Zou, H., Tian, S., Xue, L., Wang, X., et al. (2026) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2026.121523
Avolio, A., Merranko, J. A., Gill, M. K., Levenson, J. C., Goldstein, T. R., Hafeman, D., & Birmaher, B. B. (2026) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2026.122402
Self-citationRoberts, G., Ratheesh, A., Fullerton, J. M., Cignarella, C., Francis, E., Kamali, M., Stapp, E. K., Ghaziuddin, N., Hulvershorn, L. A., McInnis, M. G., et al. (2026) · Journal of Affective Disorders · doi:10.1016/j.jad.2026.122077
Santos, J. P. L., Labardini, L., Keller, L., Chan, S., Hafeman, D., Hasler, B. P., Wallace, M. L., & Soehner, A. M. (2026) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/j.psychres.2026.117343
Self-citation
- Authors
- Birmaher, B., Merranko, J. A., Goldstein, T. R., Gill, M. K., Goldstein, B. I., Hower, H., Yen, S., Hafeman, D., Strober, M., Diler, R. S., Axelson, D., Ryan, N. D., & Keller, M. B.
- Affiliations
- University of Pittsburgh (US)
- Sunnybrook Health Science Centre (CA)
- Brown University (US)
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Nationwide Children's Hospital (US)
- Corresponding author
- Birmaher, Boris
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2018-10
- Volume
- 57
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 755-763.e4
- ISSN
- 0890-8567 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6293466
- OpenAlex
- W2886223688
- Cited by
- 81
- References
- 52
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 12 · 2020: 14 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 6.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Journal of the American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute of Mental Health (R01MH059929, R01MH059691, R01MH112544)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Bipolar Disorder and Treatment
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Personality Disorders and Psychopathology
- Keywords
- youth, risk calculator, personalized risk prediction, emotional lability, anxiety symptoms, early-onset bipolar disorder
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Anxiety, Bipolar Disorder, Child, Female, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Psychiatric Status Rating Scales, Severity of Illness Index, Time Factors, Disease Progression, Risk Assessment
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
