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Cited by 319Cardiovascular Health and Risk FactorsHealthcare Systems and Public HealthHealth Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention

Cardiovascular Disease Projections in the United States Based on the 2020 Census Estimates

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Mohebi, Reza, Chen, Chen, Ibrahim, Nasrien E., McCarthy, Cian P., Gaggin, Hanna K., Singer, Daniel E., Hyle, Emily P., Wasfy, Jason H. +1 more·2022·Journal of the American College of Cardiology
DOI 10.1016/j.jacc.2022.05.033PMC PMC9396356
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Abstract

Background Understanding trends in cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and CV disease according to age, sex, race, and ethnicity is important for policy planning and public health interventions. Objectives The goal of this study was to project the number of people with CV risk factors and disease and further explore sex, race, and ethnical disparities. Methods The prevalence of CV risk factors (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity) and CV disease (ischemic heart disease, heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke) according to age, sex, race, and ethnicity was estimated by using logistic regression models based on 2013-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data and further combining them with 2020 U.S. Census projection counts for years 2025-2060. Results By the year 2060, compared with the year 2025, the number of people with diabetes mellitus will increase by 39.3% (39.2 million [M] to 54.6M), hypertension by 27.2% (127.8M to 162.5M), dyslipidemia by 27.5% (98.6M to 125.7M), and obesity by 18.3% (106.3M to 125.7M). Concurrently, projected prevalence will similarly increase compared with 2025 for ischemic heart disease by 31.1% (21.9M to 28.7M), heart failure by 33.0% (9.7M to 12.9M), myocardial infarction by 30.1% (12.3M to 16.0M), and stroke by 34.3% (10.8M to 14.5M). Among White individuals, the prevalence of CV risk factors and disease is projected to decrease, whereas significant increases are projected in racial and ethnic minorities. Conclusions Large future increases in CV risk factors and CV disease prevalence are projected, disproportionately affecting racial and ethnic minorities. Future health policies and public health efforts should take these results into account to provide quality, affordable, and accessible health care.

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  • Cardiovascular risk factors are predicted to increase and only a minority of people with type 2 diabetes achieve recommended risk factor goals and are treated with guideline-recommended therapy.

    “Despite these encouraging opportunities to reduce morbidity and mortality, cardiovascular risk factors are predicted to increase and only a minority of people with type 2 diabetes achieve recommended risk factor goals and are treated with guideline-recommended therapy (7)(8)(9).”

    From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: Standards of Care in Diabetes—2025 (2025) · cites this paper as [7]

    The Results (CV Risk Factors; page not provided) project increases in several cardiovascular risk factors in the U.S. through 2060. The paper does not report what proportion of people with type 2 diabetes meet recommended risk-factor goals or receive guideline-recommended therapy. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease are projected to rise and disproportionately impact racial and ethnic minority populations in the US.

    “cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease are projected to rise and disproportionately impact racial and ethnic minority populations in the US.30,31”

    From Race and ethnicity and pharmacy dispensing of SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 receptor agonists in type 2 diabetes (2024) · cites this paper as [30]

    The Discussion projects that cardiovascular disease will rise in the United States and disproportionately affect racial and ethnic minority populations; the Results specify increases particularly among Black and Hispanic populations. The paper does not project chronic kidney disease, so that part of the sentence is not supported by this source. (LLM, conf=0.90)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Only a minority of people with type 2 diabetes achieve recommended risk factor goals and are treated with guideline-recommended therapy.

    “only a minority of people with type 2 diabetes achieve recommended risk factor goals and are treated with guideline-recommended therapy (7–9).”

    From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: Standards of Care in Diabetes—2026 (2026) · cites this paper as [7]

    The Results section projects diabetes prevalence, while the Methods section defines diabetes for that analysis; neither reports how many people with type 2 diabetes meet risk-factor goals or receive guideline-recommended therapy. A search for those terms and related treatment-and-control language found no passage addressing the claim in our copy. Page numbers were not available for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.75)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

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Sorted by citations

Authors
Mohebi, R., Chen, C., Ibrahim, N. E., McCarthy, C. P., Gaggin, H. K., Singer, D. E., Hyle, E. P., Wasfy, J. H., & Januzzi, J. L.
Affiliations
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Inova Fairfax Hospital (US)
Corresponding author
Januzzi, James L.
ORCID
Venue
Journal of the American College of Cardiology
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2022-08
Volume
80
Issue
6
Pages
565-578
ISSN
0735-1097 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1016/j.jacc.2022.05.033
PMC
PMC9396356
OpenAlex
W4289262214
Cited by
319
References
4
Citations by year
2026: 49 · 2025: 98 · 2024: 104 · 2023: 54 · 2022: 14
FWCI
47.01
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Journal of the American College of Cardiology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
Funders
  • National Institute on Aging (R01AG069575)
  • National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (T32HL094301)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Health Promotion and Cardiovascular Prevention
Keywords
cardiovascular risk factors, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, obesity, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, myocardial infarction, stroke, racial and ethnic disparities, sex disparities, population projections, health policy
MeSH terms
Cardiovascular Diseases, Diabetes Mellitus, Heart Failure, Humans, Hypertension, Myocardial Infarction, Nutrition Surveys, Obesity, United States, Prevalence, Myocardial Ischemia, Censuses, Stroke, Dyslipidemias

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