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Cited by 346Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and LipoproteinsDiabetes Management and ResearchDiabetes Treatment and Management

Trends in incidence of total or type 2 diabetes: systematic review

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Magliano, Dianna J, Islam, Rakibul M, Barr, Elizabeth L M, Gregg, Edward W, Pavkov, Meda E, Harding, Jessica L, Tabesh, Maryam, Koye, Digsu N +1 more·2019·BMJ
DOI 10.1136/bmj.l5003PMC PMC6737490
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Abstract

Objective: To assess what proportions of studies reported increasing, stable, or declining trends in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes. Design: Systematic review of studies reporting trends of diabetes incidence in adults from 1980 to 2017 according to PRISMA guidelines. Data sources: Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant publications. Eligibility criteria: Studies of open population based cohorts, diabetes registries, and administrative and health insurance databases on secular trends in the incidence of total diabetes or type 2 diabetes in adults were included. Poisson regression was used to model data by age group and year. Results: Among the 22 833 screened abstracts, 47 studies were included, providing data on 121 separate sex specific or ethnicity specific populations; 42 (89%) of the included studies reported on diagnosed diabetes. In 1960-89, 36% (8/22) of the populations studied had increasing trends in incidence of diabetes, 55% (12/22) had stable trends, and 9% (2/22) had decreasing trends. In 1990-2005, diabetes incidence increased in 66% (33/50) of populations, was stable in 32% (16/50), and decreased in 2% (1/50). In 2006-14, increasing trends were reported in only 33% (11/33) of populations, whereas 30% (10/33) and 36% (12/33) had stable or declining incidence, respectively. Conclusions: The incidence of clinically diagnosed diabetes has continued to rise in only a minority of populations studied since 2006, with over a third of populations having a fall in incidence in this time period. Preventive strategies could have contributed to the fall in diabetes incidence in recent years. Data are limited in low and middle income countries, where trends in diabetes incidence could be different. Systematic review registration: Prospero CRD42018092287.

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  • Type 2 diabetes accounts for 90% to 95% of all cases of diabetes globally.

    “Type 2 diabetes accounts for 90% to 95% of all cases of diabetes globally”

    From Diagnosis and Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes in Adults (2025) · cites this paper as [4]

    The Discussion (Principal findings; page unavailable) says type 2 diabetes incidence in adults is an order of magnitude greater than type 1 incidence. That supports the general point that type 2 predominates, but it does not establish that type 2 accounts for 90%–95% of all diabetes cases globally; the passage concerns adult incidence, not the global share of existing cases. (LLM, conf=0.76)

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  • The prevalence of diabetes in US adults is 15.8%.

    “The prevalence of diabetes in US adults is 15.8%.4”

    From Diagnosis and Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes in Adults (2025) · cites this paper as [4]

    The Introduction discusses rising diabetes prevalence generally, while the Results report incidence trends, including US studies. Searches for “15.8” and US adult diabetes prevalence found no passage giving the claimed 15.8% estimate; our copy therefore does not verify it. (LLM, conf=0.76)

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Sorted by citations

Authors
Magliano, D. J., Islam, R. M., Barr, E. L. M., Gregg, E. W., Pavkov, M. E., Harding, J. L., Tabesh, M., Koye, D. N., & Shaw, J. E.
Affiliations
  • Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute (AU)
  • Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
Corresponding author
Magliano, Dianna J
ORCID
Venue
BMJ
Publisher
BMJ
Published
2019-09-11
Volume
366
Pages
l5003
ISSN
  • 1756-1833 (ISSN-L)
  • 0959-8138
DOI
10.1136/bmj.l5003
PMC
PMC6737490
OpenAlex
W2972605348
Cited by
346
References
5
Citations by year
2026: 16 · 2025: 44 · 2024: 66 · 2023: 63 · 2022: 54 · 2021: 52 · 2020: 46 · 2019: 4 · 2018: 1
FWCI
6.01
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • BMJ (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Monash University Research Portal (Monash University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
  • Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Treatment and Management
Keywords
diabetes incidence, type 2 diabetes, secular trends, incidence trends, diagnosed diabetes, adults, diabetes prevention, low- and middle-income countries
MeSH terms
Global Burden of Disease, Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2, Humans, Incidence

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