Understanding the Decline in Adolescent Fertility in the United States, 2007–2012
Open accessAbstract
PURPOSE: The decline in U.S. adolescent fertility has accelerated since 2007. Modeling fertility change using behavioral data can inform adolescent pregnancy prevention efforts. METHODS: We used data on sexual activity and contraceptive use from National Surveys of Family Growth for young women 15-19 years of age, and contraceptive failure rates, to estimate a Pregnancy Risk Index (PRI) for the periods 2007, 2009, and 2012. Logistic regression was used to test for change over time in sexual activity, contraceptive use, and PRI. Statistical decomposition was used to calculate attribution of change in the PRI to changes in sexual activity or contraceptive method use. RESULTS: Sexual activity in the last 3 months did not change significantly from 2007 to 2012. Pregnancy risk declined among sexually active adolescent women (p = .046), with significant increases in the use of any method (78%-86%, p = .046) and multiple methods (26%-37%, p = .046). Use of highly effective methods increased significantly from 2007 to 2009 (38%-51%, p = .010). Overall, the PRI declined at an annual rate of 5.6% (p = .071) from 2007 to 2012 and correlated with birth and pregnancy rate declines. Decomposition estimated that this decline was entirely attributable to improvements in contraceptive use. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in contraceptive use appear to be the primary proximal determinants of declines in adolescent pregnancy and birth rates in the United States from 2007 to 2012. Efforts to further improve access to and use of contraception among adolescents are necessary to ensure they have the means to prevent pregnancy.
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Most research on the Great Recession and teenage fertility finds little empirical evidence of a significant relationship with unemployment rates.
“Most research examining the influence of the Great Recession on teenage fertility rates finds little empirical evidence of a significant relationship with unemployment rates (Boonstra 2014; Lindberg, Santelli, and Desai 2016; Percheski and Kimbro 2014).”
From Beyond the Great Recession: Labor Market Polarization and Ongoing Fertility Decline in the United States (2019) · cites this paper as Lindberg, Santelli, and Desai 2016
The paper’s introductory discussion says prior research examined economic factors in declining adolescent fertility, but it does not report whether unemployment rates had a significant relationship with teenage fertility. Searches for Great Recession, unemployment, and job loss found no passage in our copy that assesses that relationship; the Discussion instead addresses sexual activity and contraceptive use. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.74)
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- Authors
- Lindberg, L., Santelli, J., & Desai, S.
- Affiliations
- Guttmacher Institute (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lindberg, Laura
- Venue
- Journal of Adolescent Health
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2016-11
- Volume
- 59
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 577-583
- ISSN
- 1054-139X (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5498007
- OpenAlex
- W2255704370
- Cited by
- 185
- References
- 35
- Citations by year
- 2026: 6 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 14 · 2021: 20 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 33 · 2018: 27 · 2017: 26 · 2016: 2
- FWCI
- 54.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Adolescent Health (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R24HD074034)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Reproductive Health and Contraception
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History › Historical Studies on Reproduction, Gender, Health, and Societal Changes
- Keywords
- adolescent fertility, adolescent pregnancy, contraceptive use, contraceptive failure, sexual activity, fertility decline, contraception, young women
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adolescent Behavior, Birth Rate, Contraception Behavior, Female, Humans, Pregnancy, Pregnancy in Adolescence, Surveys and Questionnaires, Risk Factors, Sexual Behavior, Sex Education, United States, Young Adult
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