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Racial and ethnic estimates of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in the United States (2015–2060) in adults aged ≥65 years
Open accessAbstract
Introduction: Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) cause a high burden of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Age, race, and ethnicity are important risk factors for ADRD. Methods: We estimated the future US burden of ADRD by age, sex, and race and ethnicity by applying subgroup‐specific prevalence among Medicare Fee‐for‐Service beneficiaries aged ≥65 years in 2014 to subgroup‐specific population estimates for 2014 and population projection data from the United States Census Bureau for 2015 to 2060. Results: The burden of ADRD in 2014 was an estimated 5.0 million adults aged ≥65 years or 1.6% of the population, and there are significant disparities in ADRD prevalence among population subgroups defined by race and ethnicity. ADRD burden will double to 3.3% by 2060 when 13.9 million Americans are projected to have the disease. Discussion: These estimates can be used to guide planning and interventions related to caring for the ADRD population and supporting caregivers.
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In the citing paper
“Based on data from Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and older, it has been estimated that Alzheimer's or another dementia has been diagnosed in 10.3% of White older adults, 12.2% of Hispanic older adults and 13.8% of Black older adults.”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [319]
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Based on data from Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and older, it has been estimated that Alzheimer's or another dementia has been diagnosed in 10.3% of White older adults, 12.2% of Hispanic older adults and 13.8% of Black older adults.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [346]
In the citing paper
“The CDC estimates are based entirely on factors related to the age, sex, race and ethnicity of individuals born before 1950 who did not have access to mobile digital technology during critical periods of brain development.”
In the citing paper
“These estimates are based on data for the ADRD burden of disease in 2014 for adults aged ≥65 years according to age, sex, race, and ethnicity factors which primarily represents individuals born between 1925-1945 (Silent Generation) and 1946-1964 (Baby Boomers) [1].”
In the citing paper
“Researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) project that the rate of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) in the United States will increase 2-fold, from 1.6% to 3.3%, by 2060 [1].”
In the citing paper
“We predict that from 2060 to 2100, the rates of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) will increase significantly, far above the Centres for Disease Control (CDC) projected estimates of a two-fold increase, to upwards of a four-to-six-fold increase.”
In the citing paper
“The estimates provided in Matthews and colleagues (2019) [1] were from a nationally representative sample, ADRD was physician-diagnosed in a clinical setting, and sociodemographic characteristics (i.e., age, race, sex, and ethnicity) were included.”
In the citing paper
“The projected estimates of those with ADRD, as reported in Matthews and colleagues (2019) [1], will double from 1.6% to 3.3%, meaning 13.9 million Americans are predicted to have ADRD in 2060.”
In the citing paper
“Matthews and colleagues [1] also note that estimates did not include socioeconomic factors, such as education, which is a known risk factor in ADRD research [104].”
In the citing paper
“In minority populations, the disproportionate prevalence of ADRD could amplify current socio-economic disparities leading to worse health outcomes for those with ADRD and their subsequent caregivers [1].”
In the citing paper
“If our predictions are correct, and the prevalence of ADRD will increase by more than double the current projected rates estimated by Matthews and colleagues [1], this could cripple or even collapse the healthcare systems in North America.”
In the citing paper
“which is concerning because the ADRD burden is expected to at least double by 2060 [1].”
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Citations
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Metadata
- Authors
- Matthews, K. A., Xu, W., Gaglioti, A. H., Holt, J. B., Croft, J. B., Mack, D., & McGuire, L. C.
- Affiliations
- Division of Population Health National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion CDC Atlanta GA USA
- University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee (US)
- Morehouse School of Medicine (US)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- Venue
- Alzheimer's & Dementia
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2018-09-19
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 17-24
- ISSN
- 1552-5260 (ISSN-L)
- 1552-5279
- PMC
- PMC6333531
- OpenAlex
- W2891635110
- Cited by
- 1,124
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 106 · 2025: 178 · 2024: 239 · 2023: 180 · 2022: 168 · 2021: 121 · 2020: 93 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 48.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Alzheimer s & Dementia (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, dementia prevalence
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Female, Medicare, Humans, Male, Risk Factors, United States, Prevalence, Fee-for-Service Plans, Racial Groups
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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