Alzheimer disease in the United States (2010–2050) estimated using the 2010 census
Open accessAbstract
OBJECTIVES: To provide updated estimates of Alzheimer disease (AD) dementia prevalence in the United States from 2010 through 2050. METHODS: Probabilities of AD dementia incidence were calculated from a longitudinal, population-based study including substantial numbers of both black and white participants. Incidence probabilities for single year of age, race, and level of education were calculated using weighted logistic regression and AD dementia diagnosis from 2,577 detailed clinical evaluations of 1,913 people obtained from stratified random samples of previously disease-free individuals in a population of 10,800. These were combined with US mortality, education, and new US Census Bureau estimates of current and future population to estimate current and future numbers of people with AD dementia in the United States. RESULTS: We estimated that in 2010, there were 4.7 million individuals aged 65 years or older with AD dementia (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.0-5.5). Of these, 0.7 million (95% CI = 0.4-0.9) were between 65 and 74 years, 2.3 million were between 75 and 84 years (95% CI = 1.7-2.9), and 1.8 million were 85 years or older (95% CI = 1.4-2.2). The total number of people with AD dementia in 2050 is projected to be 13.8 million, with 7.0 million aged 85 years or older. CONCLUSION: The number of people in the United States with AD dementia will increase dramatically in the next 40 years unless preventive measures are developed.
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The number of people with Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in the U.S. is rapidly increasing.
“As the U.S. population ages, the number of people with Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) is rapidly increasing,1,2”
From Review of Artificial Intelligence for Clinical Use in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias (2026) · cites this paper as [1]
The Abstract projects that the number of people in the United States with AD dementia will rise from 4.7 million in 2010 to 13.8 million in 2050. The Results link this growth to an aging population. The paper estimates AD dementia, however, not the broader category of Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD). (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredSex is an important factor that contributes to clinical and biological heterogeneity in Alzheimer's disease.
“Sex is an important factor that contributes to the clinical and biological heterogeneities in Alzheimer’s disease (AD)”
From Sex-specific DNA methylation differences in Alzheimer’s disease pathology (2021) · cites this paper as [2]
The Abstract (page unavailable) includes sex in the models of Alzheimer’s dementia incidence and mortality and describes sex-specific prevalence estimates, supporting sex as a relevant factor in the paper’s epidemiological estimates. It does not address biological heterogeneity or show that sex contributes to differences in clinical presentation. (LLM, conf=0.78)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe aging of the baby-boom generation will significantly increase the number of people in the United States with Alzheimer's.
“The aging of the baby-boom generation will significantly increase the number of people in the United States with Alzheimer's.70”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [70]
The aging of the population, including the baby-boom generation, will significantly increase the number of people in the United States with Alzheimer's dementia.
“The aging of the population, including the baby‐boom generation, will significantly increase the number of people in the United States with Alzheimer's dementia.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [78]
Around two-thirds of all Alzheimer's disease patients in the United States are women.
“Of all AD patients in the United States, around two-thirds are women [2].”
From Sex specific molecular networks and key drivers of Alzheimer’s disease (2023) · cites this paper as [2]
The Results (Table 1; page unavailable) give US Alzheimer disease estimates by age, not by sex. Although the methods describe calculating prevalence by sex, our copy does not report the proportion of patients who are women (searched: women, female, two-thirds, and 66%). (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Almost two-thirds of AD patients in the U.S. are women.
“Almost two-thirds of AD patients in the U.S. are women [2]”
From Sex-specific DNA methylation differences in Alzheimer’s disease pathology (2021) · cites this paper as [2]
The Abstract reports the total estimated number of U.S. adults aged 65 or older with AD dementia, and the methods describe calculations by sex. Neither those passages nor the Results table gives the proportion of patients who are women. Searches for “two-thirds,” “women,” and sex-specific prevalence did not find the claimed figure in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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- Authors
- Hebert, L. E., Weuve, J., Scherr, P. A., & Evans, D. A.
- Affiliations
- Rush University (US)
- Venue
- Neurology
- Published
- 2013-05-07
- Volume
- 80
- Issue
- 19
- Pages
- 1778-1783
- ISSN
- 0028-3878 (ISSN-L)
- 1526-632X
- PMC
- PMC3719424
- OpenAlex
- W2071068165
- Cited by
- 2,642
- References
- 19
- Citations by year
- 2026: 81 · 2025: 119 · 2024: 192 · 2023: 167 · 2022: 242 · 2021: 312 · 2020: 317 · 2019: 232 · 2018: 210 · 2017: 212 · 2016: 217 · 2015: 160 · 2014: 129 · 2013: 47 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 131.30
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Neurology (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Alzheimer's Association
- National Institutes of Health (AG011101)
- National Institute on Aging (RC2AG036650, U01AG012505, R01AG030146, AG011101, R01AG011101, P30AG010161, R01AG021972, R01AG009966)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (R01HL084209)
- National Institute of Nursing Research (R01NR009543, R01NR010211)
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (R21ES020404, R01ES010902, R21ES019712)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- Alzheimer's disease, dementia prevalence, population projections, older adults, age-specific prevalence, racial differences, educational attainment, population aging, United States
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Female, Forecasting, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Male, Population Surveillance, United States, Incidence, Censuses
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