Racial and ethnic estimates of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in the United States (2015–2060) in adults aged ≥65 years
Open accessAbstract
Introduction: Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) cause a high burden of morbidity and mortality in the United States. Age, race, and ethnicity are important risk factors for ADRD. Methods: We estimated the future US burden of ADRD by age, sex, and race and ethnicity by applying subgroup‐specific prevalence among Medicare Fee‐for‐Service beneficiaries aged ≥65 years in 2014 to subgroup‐specific population estimates for 2014 and population projection data from the United States Census Bureau for 2015 to 2060. Results: The burden of ADRD in 2014 was an estimated 5.0 million adults aged ≥65 years or 1.6% of the population, and there are significant disparities in ADRD prevalence among population subgroups defined by race and ethnicity. ADRD burden will double to 3.3% by 2060 when 13.9 million Americans are projected to have the disease. Discussion: These estimates can be used to guide planning and interventions related to caring for the ADRD population and supporting caregivers.
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Based on Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and older, Alzheimer's or another dementia has been diagnosed in 10.3% of White, 12.2% of Hispanic, and 13.8% of Black older adults.
“Based on data from Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and older, it has been estimated that Alzheimer's or another dementia has been diagnosed in 10.3% of White older adults, 12.2% of Hispanic older adults and 13.8% of Black older adults.”
From 2023 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2023) · cites this paper as [319]
Based on data from Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and older, it has been estimated that Alzheimer's or another dementia has been diagnosed in 10.3% of White older adults, 12.2% of Hispanic older adults and 13.8% of Black older adults.
“Based on data from Medicare beneficiaries age 65 and older, it has been estimated that Alzheimer's or another dementia has been diagnosed in 10.3% of White older adults, 12.2% of Hispanic older adults and 13.8% of Black older adults.”
From 2024 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures (2024) · cites this paper as [346]
The CDC estimates are based entirely on factors related to the age, sex, race, and ethnicity of individuals born before 1950 who did not have access to mobile digital technology during critical periods of brain development.
“The CDC estimates are based entirely on factors related to the age, sex, race and ethnicity of individuals born before 1950 who did not have access to mobile digital technology during critical periods of brain development.”
The CDC estimates are based on data for the ADRD burden of disease in 2014 for adults aged 65 years and older according to age, sex, race, and ethnicity factors, primarily representing individuals born between 1925-1945 and 1946-1964.
“These estimates are based on data for the ADRD burden of disease in 2014 for adults aged ≥65 years according to age, sex, race, and ethnicity factors which primarily represents individuals born between 1925-1945 (Silent Generation) and 1946-1964 (Baby Boomers) [1].”
The CDC projects that the rate of ADRD in the United States will increase 2-fold, from 1.6% to 3.3%, by 2060.
“Researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) project that the rate of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) in the United States will increase 2-fold, from 1.6% to 3.3%, by 2060 [1].”
From 2060 to 2100, rates of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) will increase significantly, far above the CDC projected two-fold increase, to upwards of a four-to-six-fold increase.
“We predict that from 2060 to 2100, the rates of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) will increase significantly, far above the Centres for Disease Control (CDC) projected estimates of a two-fold increase, to upwards of a four-to-six-fold increase.”
The estimates provided in Matthews and colleagues (2019) were from a nationally representative sample, ADRD was physician-diagnosed in a clinical setting, and sociodemographic characteristics (age, race, sex, and ethnicity) were included.
“The estimates provided in Matthews and colleagues (2019) [1] were from a nationally representative sample, ADRD was physician-diagnosed in a clinical setting, and sociodemographic characteristics (i.e., age, race, sex, and ethnicity) were included.”
The projected estimates of those with ADRD, as reported in Matthews and colleagues (2019), will double from 1.6% to 3.3%, meaning 13.9 million Americans are predicted to have ADRD in 2060.
“The projected estimates of those with ADRD, as reported in Matthews and colleagues (2019) [1], will double from 1.6% to 3.3%, meaning 13.9 million Americans are predicted to have ADRD in 2060.”
Matthews and colleagues also note that estimates did not include socioeconomic factors, such as education, which is a known risk factor in ADRD research.
“Matthews and colleagues [1] also note that estimates did not include socioeconomic factors, such as education, which is a known risk factor in ADRD research [104].”
In minority populations, the disproportionate prevalence of ADRD could amplify current socio-economic disparities leading to worse health outcomes for those with ADRD and their subsequent caregivers.
“In minority populations, the disproportionate prevalence of ADRD could amplify current socio-economic disparities leading to worse health outcomes for those with ADRD and their subsequent caregivers [1].”
If our predictions are correct, and the prevalence of ADRD will increase by more than double the current projected rates estimated by Matthews and colleagues, this could cripple or even collapse the healthcare systems in North America.
“If our predictions are correct, and the prevalence of ADRD will increase by more than double the current projected rates estimated by Matthews and colleagues [1], this could cripple or even collapse the healthcare systems in North America.”
ADRD burden is expected to at least double by 2060.
“which is concerning because the ADRD burden is expected to at least double by 2060 [1].”
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ATP Synthase and Mitochondrial Bioenergetics Dysfunction in Alzheimer’s Disease
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African ancestry GWAS of dementia in a large military cohort identifies significant risk loci
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Ketogenic Diet for the Treatment and Prevention of Dementia: A Review
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Understanding the Interplay Between Health Disparities and Epigenomics
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Racial and Ethnic Differences in Subjective Cognitive Decline — United States, 2015–2020
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- Authors
- Matthews, K. A., Xu, W., Gaglioti, A. H., Holt, J. B., Croft, J. B., Mack, D., & McGuire, L. C.
- Affiliations
- Division of Population Health National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion CDC Atlanta GA USA
- University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee (US)
- Morehouse School of Medicine (US)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- Venue
- Alzheimer's & Dementia
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2018-09-19
- Volume
- 15
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 17-24
- ISSN
- 1552-5260 (ISSN-L)
- 1552-5279
- PMC
- PMC6333531
- OpenAlex
- W2891635110
- Cited by
- 1,124
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 106 · 2025: 178 · 2024: 239 · 2023: 180 · 2022: 168 · 2021: 121 · 2020: 93 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 2
- FWCI
- 48.78
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Alzheimer s & Dementia (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- Alzheimer's disease and related dementias, dementia prevalence
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Alzheimer Disease, Female, Medicare, Humans, Male, Risk Factors, United States, Prevalence, Fee-for-Service Plans, Racial Groups
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