Cited by 1,304Statistical Methods in EpidemiologyMeta-analysis and systematic reviewsArtificial Intelligence in Healthcare

Prediction models need appropriate internal, internal-external, and external validation

Open access
Steyerberg, Ewout W., Harrell, Frank E.·2016·Journal of Clinical Epidemiology

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2015.04.005

Cites

1 of 1 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Temporal validation with calibration assessment is increasingly recommended but not yet routine in diabetes prediction modeling.

    “an approach increasingly recommended but not yet routine in diabetes prediction modeling [94]”

    From Machine learning-driven risk prediction for post-hospitalization diabetes case management: Integrating clinical and social determinants of health (2026) · cites this paper as [94]

    In the main text (page not provided), the paper describes temporal external validation and recommends validation approaches that can split data by calendar time. It also discusses assessing calibration in external validation. It does not address diabetes prediction modeling or establish that temporal validation with calibration assessment is not yet routine in that field. (LLM, conf=0.85)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 18

  1. [1]Tugwell P Knottnerus JA Transferability/generalizability deserves more attention in ‘retest’ studies in Diagnosis and Prognosis J Clin Epidemiol 2015 3 68 3 235 6 25726521
  2. [2]Tugwell P Knottnerus JA Clinical prediction models are not being validated J Clin Epidemiol 2015 1 68 1 1 2 25483238
  3. [3]Siontis GC Tzoulaki I Castaldi PJ Ioannidis JP External validation of new risk prediction models is infrequent and reveals worse prognostic discrimination J Clin Epidemiol 2015 1 68 1 25 34 25441703
  4. [4]Martens FK Kers JG Janssens AC External validation is only needed when prediction models are worth it J Clin Epidemiol 2015 2 3 25726454
  5. [5]Siontis GC Ioannidis JP Response to letter: more rigorous, not less, external validation is needed J Clin Epidemiol 2015 1 31 25724895
  6. [6]Justice AC Covinsky KE Berlin JA Assessing the generalizability of prognostic information Ann Intern Med 1999 3 16 130 6 515 24 10075620
  7. [7]Harrell FE Regression Modeling Strategies: With Applications to Linear Models, Logistic Regression, and Survival Analysis Springer NY 2001
  8. [8]Steyerberg EW Clinical Prediction Models: A Practical Approach to Development, Validation, and Updating Springer NY 2009
  9. [9]Steyerberg EW Harrell FE Jr Borsboom GJ Eijkemans MJ Vergouwe Y Habbema JD Internal validation of predictive models: efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis J Clin Epidemiol 2001 8 54 8 774 81 11470385
  10. [10]Steyerberg EW Bleeker SE Moll HA Grobbee DE Moons KG Internal and external validation of predictive models: a simulation study of bias and precision in small samples J Clin Epidemiol 2003 5 56 5 441 7 12812818
  11. [12]Royston P Parmar MK Sylvester R Construction and validation of a prognostic model across several studies, with an application in superficial bladder cancer Stat Med 2004 3 30 23 6 907 26 15027080
  12. [13]Steyerberg EW Mushkudiani N Perel P Butcher I Lu J McHugh GS Murray GD Marmarou A Roberts I Habbema JD Maas AI Predicting outcome after traumatic brain injury: development and international validation of prognostic scores based on admission characteristics PLoS Med 2008 8 5 5 8 e165 18684008 PMC2494563
  13. [14]Balmaña J Stockwell DH Steyerberg EW Stoffel EM Deffenbaugh AM Reid JE Ward B Scholl T Hendrickson B Tazelaar J Burbidge LA Syngal S Prediction of MLH1 and MSH2 mutations in Lynch syndrome JAMA 2006 9 27 296 12 1469 78 17003395
  14. [15]Legrand C Duchateau L Janssen P Ducrocq V Sylvester R Validation of prognostic indices using the frailty model Lifetime Data Anal 2009 3 15 1 59 78 18618249
  15. [16]Debray TP Vergouwe Y Koffijberg H Nieboer D Steyerberg EW Moons KG A new framework to enhance the interpretation of external validation studies of clinical prediction models J Clin Epidemiol 2015 3 68 3 279 89 25179855
  16. [17]Steyerberg EW Vergouwe Y Towards better clinical prediction models: seven steps for development and an ABCD for validation Eur Heart J 2014 8 1 35 29 1925 31 24898551 PMC4155437
  17. [18]Collins GS Reitsma JB Altman DG Moons KG Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): the TRIPOD statement J Clin Epidemiol 2015 2 68 2 134 43 25579640
  18. [19]Moons KG Altman DG Reitsma JB Ioannidis JP Macaskill P Steyerberg EW Vickers AJ Ransohoff DF Collins GS Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): explanation and elaboration Ann Intern Med 2015 1 6 162 1 W1 73 25560730

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Steyerberg, E. W., & Harrell, F. E.
Affiliations
  • Erasmus MC (NL)
  • Vanderbilt University (US)
Corresponding author
Steyerberg, Ewout W.
Venue
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2016-01
Volume
69
Pages
245-247
ISSN
0895-4356 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W1980283223
Cited by
1,304
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 327 · 2025: 159 · 2024: 149 · 2023: 144 · 2022: 143 · 2021: 150 · 2020: 94 · 2019: 61 · 2018: 35 · 2017: 17 · 2016: 19 · 2015: 5 · 2012: 1
FWCI
22.55
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Journal of Clinical Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
  • EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion)
Funders
National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (U01NS086294)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods in Epidemiology
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
Keywords
prediction model, model validation, internal validation, external validation, diagnosis, prognosis, clinical epidemiology
MeSH terms
Forecasting, Models, Theoretical, Validation Studies as Topic

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review