Sample size in multistakeholder Delphi surveys: at what minimum sample size do replicability of results stabilize?
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BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The minimum sample size for multistakeholder Delphi surveys remains understudied. Drawing from three large international multistakeholder Delphi surveys, this study aimed to: 1) investigate the effect of increasing sample size on replicability of results; 2) assess whether the level of replicability of results differed with participant characteristics: for example, gender, age, and profession. METHODS: We used data from Delphi surveys to develop guidance for improved reporting of health-care intervention trials: SPIRIT (Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials) and CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) extension for surrogate end points (n = 175, 22 items rated); CONSORT-SPI [CONSORT extension for Social and Psychological Interventions] (n = 333, 77 items rated); and core outcome set for burn care (n = 553, 88 items rated). Resampling with replacement was used to draw random subsamples from the participant data set in each of the three surveys. For each subsample, the median value of all rated survey items was calculated and compared to the medians from the full participant data set. The median number (and interquartile range) of medians replicated was used to calculate the percentage replicability (and variability). High replicability was defined as ≥80% and moderate as 60% and <80% RESULTS: The average median replicability (variability) as a percentage of total number of items rated from the three datasets was 81% (10%) at a sample size of 60. In one of the datasets (CONSORT-SPI), a ≥80% replicability was reached at a sample size of 80. On average, increasing the sample size from 80 to 160 increased the replicability of results by a further 3% and reduced variability by 1%. For subgroup analysis based on participant characteristics (eg, gender, age, professional role), using resampled samples of 20 to 100 showed that a sample size of 20 to 30 resulted to moderate replicability levels of 64% to 77%. CONCLUSION: We found that a minimum sample size of 60-80 participants in multistakeholder Delphi surveys provides a high level of replicability (≥80%) in the results. For Delphi studies limited to individual stakeholder groups (such as researchers, clinicians, patients), a sample size of 20 to 30 per group may be sufficient.
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There is no formal sample size calculation for Delphi studies.
“There is no formal sample size calculation for Delphi studies [46, 47].”
From Essential Information About Chronobiology and Chronotherapy for the Optimal Care of People With Bipolar Disorders: An Expert Consensus (2026) · cites this paper as [46]
Publications suggest that the results of single stakeholder Delphi studies stabilise, and achieve moderate replicability, with 20-30 participants.
“Publications suggest that the results of single stakeholder Delphi studies stabilise [44], and achieve moderate replicability, with 20–30 participants [46].”
From Essential Information About Chronobiology and Chronotherapy for the Optimal Care of People With Bipolar Disorders: An Expert Consensus (2026) · cites this paper as [46]
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Artificial Intelligence in Spiritual Care: Modified Delphi Study
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Parenting strategies to support sleep in autistic children: A Delphi consensus study
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Self-acceptance and Fertility Choices: A Mixed-methods Study on Indian Women
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Establishing a Research Agenda for Physiotherapy in Portugal: A Delphi Study
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Decentralization and Governance in Blockchain; Mutually Exclusive or Coexistent?
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Giroux, C. M., Bush, P. L., AlKhaldi, M., Talla, P. K., Couturier, Y., Thomas, A., Bussières, A., Wong, S. T., Poitras, M.-È., & Ahmed, S. (2025) · BMC Health Services Research · doi:10.1186/s12913-025-13636-2
- Authors
- Manyara, A. M., Purvis, A., Ciani, O., Collins, G. S., & Taylor, R. S.
- Affiliations
- University of Bristol (GB)
- University of Glasgow (GB)
- Bocconi University (IT)
- MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Manyara, Anthony Muchai
- Venue
- Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2024-10
- Volume
- 174
- Pages
- 111485
- ISSN
- 0895-4356 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7617918
- OpenAlex
- W4401027269
- Cited by
- 163
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 93 · 2025: 67 · 2024: 3
- FWCI
- 116.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Journal of Clinical Epidemiology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- University of Birmingham Research Portal (University of Birmingham) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- ENLIGHTEN (Jurnal Bimbingan dan Konseling Islam) (acceptedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Explore Bristol Research (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Cancer Research UK (C49297/A27294)
- Economic and Social Research Council
- National Institute for Health and Care Research
- UKRI MRC (MR/V038400/1, 304823-01)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Delphi Technique in Research
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Reliability and Agreement in Measurement
- Keywords
- sample size, minimum sample size, resampling, participant characteristics, gender, age, professional roles, reporting guidelines, alcoholic beverages, core outcome set, burn treatment, surrogate endpoints, stakeholder consensus, subgroup analysis
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Delphi Technique, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Surveys and Questionnaires, Research Design, Reproducibility of Results, Sample Size
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