Using the Delphi expert consensus method in mental health research
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Objective: The article gives an introductory overview of the use of the Delphi expert consensus method in mental health research. It explains the rationale for using the method, examines the range of uses to which it has been put in mental health research, and describes the stages of carrying out a Delphi study using examples from the literature. Method: To ascertain the range of uses, a systematic search was carried out in PubMed. The article also examines the implications of ‘wisdom of crowds’ research for how to conduct Delphi studies. Results: The Delphi method is a systematic way of determining expert consensus that is useful for answering questions that are not amenable to experimental and epidemiological methods. The validity of the approach is supported by ‘wisdom of crowds’ research showing that groups can make good judgements under certain conditions. In mental health research, the Delphi method has been used for making estimations where there is incomplete evidence (e.g. What is the global prevalence of dementia?), making predictions (e.g. What types of interactions with a person who is suicidal will reduce their chance of suicide?), determining collective values (e.g. What areas of research should be given greatest priority?) and defining foundational concepts (e.g. How should we define ‘relapse’?). A range of experts have been used in Delphi research, including clinicians, researchers, consumers and caregivers. Conclusion: The Delphi method has a wide range of potential uses in mental health research.
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Publications suggest that the results of single stakeholder Delphi studies stabilise, and achieve moderate replicability, with 20-30 participants.
“Publications suggest that the results of single stakeholder Delphi studies stabilise [44], and achieve moderate replicability, with 20–30 participants [46].”
From Essential Information About Chronobiology and Chronotherapy for the Optimal Care of People With Bipolar Disorders: An Expert Consensus (2026) · cites this paper as [44]
The ‘Determining expert panel size’ section reports stability with panels of around 20 or more and describes a replication in which item endorsements from 22 professionals correlated 0.84 with those from 41 professionals. This supports replicability involving a single-stakeholder panel of 22, but does not establish a general replicability threshold of 20–30 participants; the paper also says there is little firm guidance on panel size. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe study followed the key elements of the Delphi method.
“The study followed the key elements of the Delphi method [44].”
From Essential Information About Chronobiology and Chronotherapy for the Optimal Care of People With Bipolar Disorders: An Expert Consensus (2026) · cites this paper as [44]
There is no gold standard for defining consensus in a Delphi study.
“There is no gold standard for defining consensus in a Delphi study [44, 47].”
From Essential Information About Chronobiology and Chronotherapy for the Optimal Care of People With Bipolar Disorders: An Expert Consensus (2026) · cites this paper as [44]
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Post-traumatic Confusional State: A Case Definition and Diagnostic Criteria
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Building a mental health literacy model and verbal scale for children: Results of a Delphi study
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Global Climate Implications for Homelessness: A Scoping Review
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Self-citationGuidelines for the public on how to provide mental health first aid: narrative review
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Elementos esenciales para elaborar un estudio con el método (e)Delphi
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Chinese expert consensus on prevention and intervention for elderly with sarcopenia (2023)
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The Development of Evidence-Based Classification of Vision Impairment in Judo: A Delphi Study
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Multimethod Support for Using the Big Five Framework to Organize Social and Emotional Skills
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Avaliação Psicológica no Brasil e no Mundo
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Essential elements to elaborate a study with the (e)Delphi method
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Uncertainty quantification of CO2 emissions from China's civil aviation industry to 2050
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Considerations when providing mental health first aid to an LGBTIQ person: a Delphi study
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Patient-Centered Risk Assessment in Implant Treatment Planning
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Guideline for incorporating the Delphi method in the evaluation of nursing theories
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Providing mental health first aid in the workplace: a Delphi consensus study
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Virtual hospitals: The future of the healthcare system? An expert consensus
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Investigating Characteristics of Quality Peer Mentors With Spinal Cord Injury
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The drama therapy core processes: A Delphi study establishing a North American perspective
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- Authors
- Jorm, A. F.
- Affiliations
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Jorm, Anthony F
- ORCID
- Jorm, Anthony F
- Venue
- Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry
- Publisher
- SAGE Publications
- Published
- 2015-08-21
- Volume
- 49
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 887-897
- ISSN
- 0004-8674 (ISSN-L)
- 1440-1614
- OpenAlex
- W2111751736
- Cited by
- 765
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2026: 81 · 2025: 109 · 2024: 115 · 2023: 82 · 2022: 93 · 2021: 80 · 2020: 67 · 2019: 58 · 2018: 40 · 2017: 20 · 2016: 18 · 2015: 1
- FWCI
- 10.69
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- hdl.handle.net
- Locations
- Australian & New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Health and Medical Research Council
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Delphi Technique in Research
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Reliability and Agreement in Measurement
- Social Sciences › Education › Health Education and Validation
- Keywords
- Delphi method, expert consensus, mental health research, wisdom of crowds, suicide prevention, research prioritization, relapse definition
- MeSH terms
- Consensus Development Conferences as Topic, Consensus Statements as Topic, Delphi Technique, Humans, Mental Health, Consensus, Biomedical Research
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