Global incidence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 63 studies and 1,201,807 persons
Abstract
Background & aims The prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is increasing. We aimed to estimate the pooled global NAFLD incidence.Methods We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies of adults without NAFLD at baseline to evaluate the global incidence of ultrasound-diagnosed NAFLD.Results A total of 63 eligible studies (1,201,807 persons) were analyzed. Studies were from Mainland China/Hong Kong (n = 26), South Korea (n = 22), Japan (n = 14), other (n = 2, Sri Lanka, Israel); 63.8% were clinical center studies; median study year 2000 to 2016; 87% were good quality. Among the 1,201,807 persons at risk, 242,568 persons developed NAFLD, with an incidence rate of 4,612.8 (95% CI 3,931.5-5,294.2) per 100,000 person-years and no statistically significant differences by study sample size (p = 0.90) or study setting (p = 0.055). Males had higher incidence vs. females (5,943.8 vs. 3,671.7, p = 0.0013). Both the obese (vs. non-obese) and the overweight/obese groups (vs. normal weight) were about threefold more likely to develop NAFLD (8,669.6 vs. 2,963.9 and 8,416.6 vs. 3,358.2, respectively) (both p <0.0001). Smokers had higher incidence than non-smokers (8,043.2 vs. 4,689.7, p = 0.046). By meta-regression, adjusting for study year, study setting, and study location, study period of 2010 or after and study setting were associated with increased incidence (p = 0.010 and p = 0.055, respectively). By country, China had a higher NAFLD incidence compared to non-China regions (p = 0.012) and Japan a lower incidence compared to non-Japan regions (p = 0.005).Conclusions NAFLD incidence is increasing with a current estimate of 4,613 new cases per 100,000 person-years. Males and overweight/obese individuals had significantly higher incidence rates compared to females and those of normal weight. Public health interventions for prevention of NAFLD are needed with a special emphasis on males, overweight/obese individuals, and higher risk regions.Impact and implications Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) affects approximately 30% of people worldwide and appears to be increasing, but data to estimate the incidence rate are limited. In this meta-analytic study of over 1.2 million people, we estimated an incidence rate of NAFLD of 46.13 per 1,000 person-years with significant differences by sex, BMI, geography, and time-period. As treatment options for NAFLD remain limited, prevention of NAFLD should remain the focus of public health strategies. Studies such as these can help policy makers in determining which and whether their interventions are impactful.
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The estimated global prevalence of MASLD in the general population has risen from 25% in 2016 to currently more than 30%, and the incidence is continually increasing.
“The estimated global prevalence of MASLD in the general population has risen from 25% in 2016 12 to currently more than 30%, and the incidence is continually increasing. 12 -14”
From EASL-EASD-EASO Clinical Practice Guidelines on the management of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). (2024) · cites this paper as [14]
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Ma, R., Shi, G.-Y., Li, Y., & Shi, H. (2024) · British Journal Of Nutrition · doi:10.1017/s0007114524000631 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
“Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has emerged as the most prevalent hepatic disorder worldwide and is estimated to afflict approximately 38 % of the world ’ s population, with an annual incidence of 46 · 13 new cases per 1000 person-years (1,2) .”
Backgroundde Souza, M. H. G., Diaz, I., & Al‐Sharif, L. (2024) · Hepatology International · doi:10.1007/s12072-024-10716-z · Cited by 37 · see citing works
“Its prevalence is increasing in parallel with the global obesity epidemic, resulting in a significant social and economic burden [2].”
Zou, H., Ma, X., Pan, W. Q., & Xie, Y. (2024) · Frontiers in Nutrition · doi:10.3389/fnut.2024.1411802 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
Endpoints in NASH Clinical Trials: Are We Blind in One Eye?
Lonardo, A., Ballestri, S., Mantovani, A., Targher, G., & Bril, F. (2024) · Metabolites · doi:10.3390/metabo14010040 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
“The prevalence of NASH ranges from ~2% to 6.5% globally, with a nearly two-fold increase among high-risk individuals such as middle-aged individuals in the USA [25].”
BackgroundInfluentialZhang, H., Targher, G., Byrne, C. D., Kim, S., Wong, V. W.-S., Valenti, L., Glickman, M., Ponce, J., Mantzoros, C. S., Crespo, J., et al. (2024) · Hepatology International · doi:10.1007/s12072-024-10702-5 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
MASLD and MASH at the crossroads of hepatology trials and cardiorenal metabolic trials
Zannad, F. M., Sanyal, A. J., Butler, J., Ferreira, J. P., Girerd, N., Miller, V., Pandey, A., Parikh, C. R., Ratziu, V., Younossi, Z. M., et al. (2024) · Journal of Internal Medicine · doi:10.1111/joim.13793 · Cited by 35 · see citing works
“Prospective data indicated a 14% prevalence of advanced fibrosis and a 6% prevalence of cirrhosis in patients with T2DM [8].”
BackgroundProjected Trends in Metabolic Dysfunction–Associated Steatotic Liver Disease Mortality Through 2040
Zhang, X., Linden, S., Levesley, C. R., He, X., Yang, Z., Barnet, S., Cheung, R. C., Ji, F., & Nguyen, M. H. (2025) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.16367 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
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Lonardo, A. (2023) · Expert Review of Clinical Pharmacology · doi:10.1080/17512433.2023.2259306 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
“…persons and 63 eligible studies found that NAFLD incidence is increasing, with a current estimate of 4,613 new cases per 100,000 person-years; however, compared to women and to normal weight individuals, men and overweight/obese individuals had significantly higher disease incidence rates [48].”
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Non-invasive diagnosis of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: Current status and future perspective
Wang, J., Jiang, S., Hu, A., Zhou, A.-W., Hu, T., Li, H., Fan, Y., & Lin, K. (2024) · Heliyon · doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27325 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
“Of note, the aging of the population, as well as the growing obesity and diabetes epidemic, will probably have a significant impact on its prevalence in the years to come [11 – 13].”
BackgroundWang, Y., Zhou, J., Yang, Q., Li, X., Qiu, Y., Zhang, Y., Liu, M., & Zhu, A. J. (2024) · Journal of Lipid Research · doi:10.1016/j.jlr.2024.100635 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Pustjens, J., van Kleef, L. A., Janssen, H. L. A., de Knegt, R. J., & Brouwer, W. P. (2024) · JHEP Reports · doi:10.1016/j.jhepr.2024.101193 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Jamil, A., Chivese, T., Elshaikh, U. A. M., & Sendall, M. C. (2024) · BMC Public Health · doi:10.1186/s12889-024-19378-w · Cited by 26 · see citing works
“The prevalence of MASLD has increased over recent years from 2000 per 100,000 person-years in the year 2000 to 7000 per 100,000 in the year 2015 [2].”
BackgroundLin, B., Wu, T., Nasb, M., Li, Z., & Chen, N. (2025) · Free Radical Biology and Medicine · doi:10.1016/j.freeradbiomed.2025.02.017 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Jain, P., Jain, A., Deshmukh, R., Samal, P. K., Satapathy, T., & Ajazuddin, M. (2025) · Clinics and Research in Hepatology and Gastroenterology · doi:10.1016/j.clinre.2025.102584 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Sun, B., Ding, X., Tan, J., Zhang, J., Chu, X., Zhang, S., Liu, S., Zhao, Z., Xuan, S., Xin, Y., et al. (2024) · Clinical and Molecular Hepatology · doi:10.3350/cmh.2024.0268 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Towards precision medicine in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease
Francque, S. (2023) · Reviews in Endocrine and Metabolic Disorders · doi:10.1007/s11154-023-09820-6 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
“NAFLD also shows marked sex-related differences [37], attributed mainly to the protective actions of oestrogens [38, 39].”
BackgroundPan, K., Xu, J., Xu, Y., Wang, C., & Yu, J. (2024) · Pharmacological Research · doi:10.1016/j.phrs.2024.107251 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Elshaer, A., Chascsa, D. M. H., & Lizaola‐Mayo, B. (2024) · Life · doi:10.3390/life14070844 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Wang, S., Lin, X., Zhu, C., Dong, Y., Guo, Y., Xie, Z., He, X., Ju, W., & Chen, M. (2024) · Frontiers in Endocrinology · doi:10.3389/fendo.2023.1287916 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Elevated GGT to HDL ratio as a marker for the risk of NAFLD and liver fibrosis
Xuan, Y., He, F., Liu, Q. F., Dai, D., Wu, D., Shi, Y., & Yao, Q. Z. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-84649-w · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Hu, Y., Li, H., Zhang, H., Chen, X., Chen, J., Xu, Z., You, H., Dong, R., Peng, Y., Li, J., et al. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-42162-0 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Sex and gender differences in metabolic dysfunction-associated liver disease
Penmetsa, R., Kapil, S. R., & VanWagner, L. B. (2025) · Indian Journal of Gastroenterology · doi:10.1007/s12664-025-01833-0 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Adrenic acid: A promising biomarker and therapeutic target (Review)
Wang, Z., Gao, H., Ma, X., Zhu, D., Zhao, L., & Xiao, W. (2024) · International Journal of Molecular Medicine · doi:10.3892/ijmm.2024.5461 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
“Approximately 30% of the global population is estimated to suffer from NAFLd, and this percentage is increasing (42).”
Younossi, Z. M., Paik, J. M., Lazarus, J. V., Burra, P., Eguchi, Y., Tacke, F., Crespo, J., Villela‐Nogueira, C. A., Brennan, P., Al‐Omar, H. A., et al. (2025) · Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology · doi:10.1016/j.cgh.2025.09.002 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Zhong, X., Lv, M.-L., Ma, M.-Q., Huang, Q., Hu, R., Li, J., Yi, J., Sun, J.-L., & Zhou, X.-Z. (2023) · Biomedicine & pharmacotherapy = Biomedecine & pharmacotherapie · doi:10.1016/j.biopha.2023.115131 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Xing, Y., Gao, X., Li, Q., Li, X., Wang, Y., Yang, Y., Yang, S., Lau, P. W. C., Zeng, Q., & Wang, H. (2023) · Journal of Hazardous Materials · doi:10.1016/j.jhazmat.2023.132501 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Lorek, D., Łupina, K., Bisaga, W., Malicki, D., Stępień, W., Kumor, L., & Janczura, J. (2025) · Korean Journal of Family Medicine · doi:10.4082/kjfm.25.0027 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“A recent systematic review and meta-analysis of 63 studies, primarily conducted in Asian countries (China/Hong Kong, 26; South Korea, 22; Japan, 14; Sri Lanka, 1; Israel, 1) by Le et al. [8] found an incidence rate of 46.13 new cases of MASLD per 1,000 person-years.”
InfluentialZhang, Y., Li, J., Wang, Z., Chen, J., Zhao, M., Guo, C. X., Wang, T., Li, R., Zhang, H., Ma, X., et al. (2025) · Phytomedicine · doi:10.1016/j.phymed.2025.156651 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Kouvari, M., Valenzuela‐Vallejo, L., Axarloglou, E., Verrastro, O., Papatheodoridis, G., Mingrone, G., George, J., & Mantzoros, C. S. (2024) · Liver International · doi:10.1111/liv.15847 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Qiu, J., Huang, X., Kuang, M., Yang, R., Li, J., Sheng, G., & Zou, Y. (2024) · Diabetes Metabolic Syndrome and Obesity · doi:10.2147/dmso.s462181 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“3,4 Currently, there are no clinically approved medications specifically for treating NAFLD; However, compelling evidence suggests that changes in diet and lifestyle can effectively prevent NAFLD.”
BackgroundHepatocellular Interactions of Potential Nutraceuticals in the Management of Inflammatory NAFLD
Ezhilarasan, D., & Kulanthaivel, L. (2024) · Cell Biochemistry and Function · doi:10.1002/cbf.4112 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
“The global prevalence of NAFLD was estimated to be 24% in 2018 [9] and current estimates indicate that it has risen to 29% [10].”
Two-Year Mediterranean Diet Intervention Improves Hepatic Health in MASLD Patients
Monserrat-Mesquida, M., Bouzas, C., García, S., Mateos, D., Casares, M., Ugarriza, L., Gómez, C., Sureda, A., & Tur, J. A. (2025) · Foods · doi:10.3390/foods14101736 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
“MASLD is a major cause of chronic liver disease (CLD), impacting approximately 30% of the global adult population, with its prevalence continuing to increase [2].”
Tricase, A. F., Cavalluzzi, M. M., Catalano, A. A., Bellis, M. D., Palma, A. D., Basile, G., Sinicropi, M. S., & Lentini, G. (2025) · Molecules · doi:10.3390/molecules30153213 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is one of the most common liver diseases affecting about 25% of the population worldwide [151,152].”
Sex Differences in MASLD After Age 50: Presentation, Diagnosis, and Clinical Implications
Milani, I., Parrotta, M. E., Colangeli, L., Chinucci, M., Palleschi, S., Rossi, B., Sbraccia, P., Mantovani, A., Leonetti, F., Guglielmi, V., et al. (2025) · Biomedicines · doi:10.3390/biomedicines13092292 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“Men consistently exhibit a higher prevalence of MASLD [20–22] across all age groups, whereas in women, the risk increases with age [23], reaching or surpassing that of men after menopause [19,22,24–26].”
Arvanitakis, K., Papadakos, S. P., Lekakis, V., Koufakis, T., Lempesis, I. G., Papantoniou, E., Kalopitas, G., GEORGAKOPOULOU, V. E., Stergiou, I. Ε., Theocharis, S. E., et al. (2023) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms241914704 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
“The incidence rate has tripled between 2000 and 2015, with higher rates in men and those who are overweight/obese, emphasizing the need for public health interventions targeting at-risk populations as the prevalence of MAFLD continues to rise [10].”
BackgroundCoste, S. C., Orasan, O. H., Cozma, A., Negrean, V., Sitar-Tăut, A., Filip, G. A., Hangan, A. C., Lucaciu, R. L., Iancu, M., & Procopciuc, L. M. (2024) · Biomedicines · doi:10.3390/biomedicines12092144 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Sex Differences in Adverse Liver and Nonliver Outcomes in Steatotic Liver Disease
Yan, T., Zhang, X., Wong, T., Cheung, R. C., & Nguyen, M. H. (2024) · JAMA Network Open · doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.48946 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Tao, S.-H., Lei, Y., Tan, Y., Yang, Y.-B., & Xie, W. (2024) · Frontiers in Medicine · doi:10.3389/fmed.2024.1476419 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Wang, C., Qin, S., Shi, J., Zhu, J., Ju, X., Wang, W., & Yang, L. (2025) · Carbohydrate Polymers · doi:10.1016/j.carbpol.2025.124097 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Targeting Metabolism: Innovative Therapies for MASLD Unveiled
Wang, W., Gao, X., Niu, W., Yin, J., & He, K. (2025) · International Journal of Molecular Sciences · doi:10.3390/ijms26094077 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
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Hepatic transcriptome signatures in mice and humans with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease
Ding, Y., Dai, X., Bao, M., Xing, Y., Liu, J., Zhao, S., Liu, E., Yuan, Z., & Bai, L. (2023) · Animal Models and Experimental Medicine · doi:10.1002/ame2.12338 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Qiu, J., Kuang, M., He, S., Yu, C., Wang, C., Huang, X., Sheng, G., & Zou, Y. (2023) · Frontiers in Endocrinology · doi:10.3389/fendo.2023.1302322 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Chen, J., Zhou, H., & Liu, K. (2023) · Journal of Hepatology · doi:10.1016/j.jhep.2023.11.024 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Hjazi, A. M., Hsu, C., Al-Attar, W. M., Almajidi, Y. Q., Hussien, B. M., Alzahrani, A. A., Kareem, A. K., Alazbjee, A. A. A., & Meng, X. (2024) · Chemosphere · doi:10.1016/j.chemosphere.2023.141096 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
He, S., Lu, S., Yu, C., Kuang, M., Qiu, J., Sheng, G., & Zou, Y. (2024) · BMC Gastroenterology · doi:10.1186/s12876-024-03362-0 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
“According to the latest epidemiological data, the global prevalence of MAFLD is estimated to be around 30% [6], and it appears to be on the rise.”
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“The global prevalence of MASLD is estimated to be ~30% and has risen in parallel with the global surge in obesity, making it an increasingly recognized health concern 4,5 .”
Liu, X., Wang, J., Li, M., Qiu, J., Li, X., Qi, L., Liu, J., Liu, P., Xie, G., & Wang, X. (2023) · Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology · doi:10.1111/jgh.16279 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Zhu, S., Zhao, Y., Liu, L., Xu, Y., Zhu, J., Li, W., Liu, Y., & Xia, M. (2023) · Molecular Nutrition & Food Research · doi:10.1002/mnfr.202300515 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
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Zou, H., Wen, P., & Sun, X. (2025) · Frontiers in Nutrition · doi:10.3389/fnut.2025.1571487 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
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Qi, Y., Fang, Q., Chen, Z., Chen, L., & Du, J. (2025) · International Journal of Biological Sciences · doi:10.7150/ijbs.111290 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
“MASLD affects approximately 30% of the global population, with its prevalence steadily increasing [42], which has a broader impact than ALD.”
Chen, S., Wang, X., Liu, Z., Wang, J., Guo, Y., Wang, Q., Huang, H., Li, Y., Yu, C., & Xu, C. (2023) · Metabolism · doi:10.1016/j.metabol.2023.155679 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
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“NAFLD incidence is continuously increasing, and epidemiological evidence has indicated the contributing roles of excess carbohydrate consumption in metabolic diseases including type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and NAFLD via increasing lipogenesis (Le et al. 2023).”
- Authors
- Le, M. H., Le, D. M., Baez, T. C., Wu, Y., Ito, T., Lee, E. Y., Lee, K., Stave, C. D., Henry, L., Barnett, S. D., Cheung, R., & Nguyen, M. H.
- Affiliations
- University of Vermont (US)
- Burrell College of Osteopathic Medicine (US)
- Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (CN)
- Nagoya University (JP)
- Stanford Medicine (US)
- Stanford University (US)
- VA Palo Alto Health Care System (US)
- Corresponding author
- Nguyen, Mindie H.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Journal of Hepatology
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2023-08
- Volume
- 79
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 287-295
- ISSN
- 0168-8278 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4362719751
- Cited by
- 303
- References
- 51
- Citations by year
- 2026: 71 · 2025: 98 · 2024: 98 · 2023: 35 · 2012: 1
- FWCI
- 11.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Hepatology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Liver Disease Diagnosis and Treatment
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pathology and Forensic Medicine › Alcohol Consumption and Health Effects
- Keywords
- NAFLD incidence, global prevalence, ultrasonography, obesity, overweight, smoking, sex differences, China, South Korea, Japan, cohort studies, risk factors, study quality bias, study design bias, publication bias
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Female, Humans, Male, Obesity, Cohort Studies, Incidence, Overweight, Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
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