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“Second, land-change science has been biased towards analyzing conversions among broad land-cover classes, such as agricultural expansion or urban growth (Kuemmerle et al., 2013; Rounsevell et al., 2012).”
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“…site conditions and vary substantially in space, understanding where, how, and why land use is changing is thus important for mitigating them, and for developing policies to transition to more © 2016 IOPPublishing Ltd sustainable forms of land management (Turner et al 2007, Rounsevell et al 2012).”
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“…more comprehensive discussions of the operational and methodological tools and challenges in LSS (Ferraro & Hanauer, 2014a; Liverman, Moran, Rindfuss, & Stern, 1998; Reenberg, 2009; Rindfuss, Walsh, Turner, Fox, & Mishra, 2004; Rounsevell et al., 2012; Turner et al., 2007; Young et al., 2006).”
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Land management: data availability and process understanding for global change studies
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Self-citationMapping global land system archetypes
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“Models of patterns, change, and dynamics in land use and land cover have been important tools for land-change science [1] and land-system science [2] and application.”
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“Still we may have to accept that high process accuracy may not, in all cases, lead to high agreement between model and past observation [64], and that multiple process pathways can potentially give rise to similar output patterns, so that model selection may not be straightforward [65].”
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“Understanding what drives people’s land-use decisions is important to understand how land systems may evolve in the future and for identifying effective policies to steer land systems towards desired outcomes (Meyfroidt, 2015; Rounsevell et al., 2012; Turner et al., 2013).”
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“First, Europe is characterized by a wide range of agricultural systems, spanning strong environmental and socio-economic gradients, resulting in systems with different degrees of cropland-use intensity (Herzog et al 2006, Rounsevell et al 2012, Rudel et al 2009).”
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“This enables the quantification of ES impacts (Rounsevell et al., 2012) and helps to derive better recommendations on mitigating ES trade-offs and supporting ES synergies.”
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“2010), particularly when analysing alternate pathways leading to sustainable land use in the future (Rounsevell et al. 2012).”
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“Planning and preparatory work 163 It has been agreed that stakeholders as well as researchers are likely to gain from an engagement 164 process (Rounsevell et al., 2012).”
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“However, most research to date has investigated future development pathways either at the global scale or at very fine scales (e.g., individual villages) while intermediate scales have been neglected (Rounsevell et al. 2012).”
BackgroundSelf-citationClarity versus complexity: Land-use modeling as a practical tool for decision-makers
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“Other integrated models include the LANDSHIFT modeling framework, which links a socioeconomic module and a biophysical module with a land-use change module, with feedback loops between modeling systems (Schaldach and Koch, 2009). Claessens et al. (2009) coupled the CLUE model with the landscape process model “LAPSUS”…”
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“…scenario analysis underpinned by data-centric modelling has been widely applied at multiple scales and has addressed multiple issues to support evidence-based strategic policy for sustainability (Alcamo et al., 2008; Heistermann et al., 2006; Rothman, 2008; Rounsevell et al., 2014, 2012a).”
Drivers of changes in agricultural intensity in Europe
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Self-citationLinking landscape, land system and design approaches to achieve sustainability
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“This common implementation requires a multi-scale mapping approach where ES are produced and the benefits are appreciated [10,11].”
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Gender differences in land-use decisions: shaping multifunctional landscapes?
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“Yet, feedback between the highly interlinked, underlying, ecological and socio-economic drivers and constraints are often poorly understood [4].”
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Using agent-based modelling to simulate social-ecological systems across scales
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“representing larger geographical areas and the relevant high-level social structures and institutions [4, 16, 19, 25, 26].”
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Self-citationRural settlements transition (RST) in a suburban area of metropolis: Internal structure perspectives
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“A sound understanding of changes n land-use intensity is however a prerequisite for policy toward ustainable land use (Rounsevell et al., 2012).”
Self-citationGlobal scenarios for biodiversity need to better integrate climate and land use change
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“Recently developed models simulate the interactions between global forces and the diversity of local factors that determine changes in the way humans will exploit the land surface (Rounsevell et al., 2012; Sleeter et al., 2012; Verburg et al., 2016).”
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“Our study demonstrated an approach to integrate different scales into the analysis, but could not avoid this scale mismatch problem, which remains open for future research (Rounsevell et al. 2012).”
Howard, C., Stephens, P. A., Pearce‐Higgins, J. W., Gregory, R. D., Butchart, S. H. M., & Willis, S. G. (2020) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.13144 · Cited by 90
“…some large-scale changes in the extent of some land cover types, since the 1950s, land use change in Europe has predominantly occurred along intensification gradients (Kuemmerle et al., 2016; Rounsevell et al., 2012); these changes would not be reflected in our measure of land cover suitability.”
BackgroundImpacts of land change on biodiversity: making the link to ecosystem services
Nagendra, H., Reyers, B., & Lavorel, S. (2013) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2013.05.010 · Cited by 92
Self-citationAn open framework for agent based modelling of agricultural land use change
Murray-Rust, D., Robinson, D. T., Guillem, E., Karali, E., & Rounsevell, M. (2014) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.06.027 · Cited by 85
“Agent based models (ABMs) are increasingly used to model humaneenvironment interactions (Rounsevell et al., 2012a,b).”
BackgroundMethodSelf-citationSohl, T. L., Wimberly, M. C., Radeloff, V. C., Theobald, D. M., & Sleeter, B. M. (2016) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.07.016 · Cited by 82
Plutzar, C., Kroisleitner, C., Haberl, H., Fetzel, T., Bulgheroni, C., Beringer, T., Hostert, P., Kästner, T., Kuemmerle, T., Lauk, C., et al. (2015) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0820-3 · Cited by 83
“The development of consistent datasets that allow us to systematically integrate the different dimensions of land-use intensity is thus a central research priority (Rounsevell et al. 2012; Erb et al. 2013).”
BackgroundSelf-citationLand-use regime shifts: an analytical framework and agenda for future land-use research
Ramankutty, N., & Coomes, O. T. (2016) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-08370-210201 · Cited by 85
Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Changes with Ecosystem Service Value in the Yellow River Basin
Lou, Y., Yang, D., Zhang, P., Zhang, Y., Song, M., Huang, Y., & Jing, W. (2022) · Land · doi:10.3390/land11070992 · Cited by 79
“Land use change is a direct manifestation of human activity and interaction with the environment and has a significant effect on the environment [9,10].”
BackgroundModelling population structure in the context of urban land use change in Europe
Terämä, E., Clarke, E., Rounsevell, M., Fronzek, S., & Carter, T. R. (2017) · Regional Environmental Change · doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1194-5 · Cited by 78
“Both population and land use change aremodelled extensively, but separately (Rogers 1986; Bongaarts and Bulatao 2000; Veldkamp et al. 2001; Cohen 2003; Rounsevell et al. 2012; KC and Lutz 2014; Rounsevell et al. 2014), which is a limitation of current approaches.”
BackgroundSelf-citationBrunner, S. H., & Grêt‐Regamey, A. (2016) · Environmental Science & Policy · doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2016.09.003 · Cited by 83
Actionable knowledge for land use planning: Making ecosystem services operational
Brunet, L., Tuomisaari, J., Lavorel, S., Crouzat, É., Bierry, A., Peltola, T., & Arpin, I. (2017) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.12.036 · Cited by 77
Self-citationDang, A. N., & Kawasaki, A. (2016) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.11.004 · Cited by 76
“Although affected by biophysical conditions, LUCC processes are influenced most by humans and their use of the land (Rounsevell et al., 2012; Turner et al., 2009).”
BackgroundRyan, C. M., Berry, N., & Joshi, N. (2014) · Applied Geography · doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.05.014 · Cited by 75
A review of global-local-global linkages in economic land-use/cover change models
Hertel, T. W., West, T. A. P., Börner, J., & Villoria, N. B. (2019) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d33 · Cited by 80
“Addressing these issues requires a multiscale approach that recognizes the linkages between global drivers and local responses (Rounsevell et al 2012), and their feedback at the regional, national, and global levels, i.e. global-to-local-to-global (GLG) analyses.”
BackgroundFraming the search for a theory of land use
Turner, B., Meyfroidt, P., Kuemmerle, T., Müller, D., & Chowdhury, R. R. (2020) · Journal of Land Use Science · doi:10.1080/1747423x.2020.1811792 · Cited by 73
“A theory of land systems would explain the elements and processes generating land uses and land covers in terms of interactive social and environmental subsystems (Rounsevell et al., 2012).”
Self-citationAligning research with policy and practice for sustainable agricultural land systems in Europe
Scown, M., Winkler, K. J., & Nicholas, K. A. (2019) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1812100116 · Cited by 75
Land science contributions to ecosystem services
Crossman, N. D., Bryan, B. A., de Groot, R. S., Lin, Y., & Minang, P. A. (2013) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2013.06.003 · Cited by 74
“Decision making that impacts on the land will require improved understanding of the relationships between humans, the economy and the environment, and a consistency of methods to quantify this relationship [6 ].”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSustainable Land Management in a European Context
Weith, T., Barkmann, T., Gaasch, N., Rogga, S., Strauß, C., & Zscheischler, J. (2020) · Human-environment interactions · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-50841-8 · Cited by 87
Rega, C., Short, C., Pérez‐Soba, M., & Paracchini, M. L. (2020) · Landscape and Urban Planning · doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2020.103793 · Cited by 73
Self-citationKönig, H. J., Uthes, S., Schuler, J., Zhen, L., Purushothaman, S., Suarma, U., Sghaïer, M., Makokha, S., Helming, K., Sieber, S., et al. (2012) · Journal of Environmental Management · doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.10.021 · Cited by 71
“Whereas expert knowledge is essential, for example, to define complex humanenature relationships of land use systems (e.g., Burgi et al., 2004; Metzger et al., 2006; Rounsevell et al., 2012; Verburg et al., 2002) or when dealing with the integration of interdisciplinary knowledge in impact assessment (see, De Ridder e…”
BackgroundUsing economic geography to reinvigorate land-change science
Munroe, D. K., McSweeney, K., Olson, J. L., & Mansfield, B. (2014) · Geoforum · doi:10.1016/j.geoforum.2013.12.005 · Cited by 74
“Land change scientists are well aware of these challenges and the urgent need to address them (Rounsevell et al., 2012).”
BackgroundChen, C., He, X., Liu, Z., Sun, W., Dong, H., & Chu, Y. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-69716-2 · Cited by 69
Patterns and drivers of farm-level land use change in selected European rural landscapes
Kristensen, S. B. P., Busck, A. G., van der Sluis, T., & Gaube, V. (2016) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.07.014 · Cited by 69
Self-citationConnor, J. D., Bryan, B. A., Nolan, M., Stock, F., Gao, L., Dunstall, S., Graham, P., Ernst, A. T., Newth, D., Grundy, M., et al. (2015) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.03.015 · Cited by 68
Yin, D., Li, X., Li, G., Zhang, J., & Yu, H. (2020) · Land · doi:10.3390/land9120514 · Cited by 68
“LUT was considered to be one of the main driving forces to change ecosystem services at regional and global levels [31,32], which had a significant effect on the regional natural environment and ecosystem [33,34].”
BackgroundThe impact of farmland use transition on rural livelihood transformation in China
Chen, K., Wang, Y., Li, N., Xu, Y., Zheng, Y., Zhan, X., & Li, Q. (2023) · Habitat International · doi:10.1016/j.habitatint.2023.102784 · Cited by 73
Agent-based modelling of land use dynamics and residential quality of life for future scenarios
Murray-Rust, D., Rieser, V., Robinson, D. T., Miličić, V., & Rounsevell, M. (2013) · Environmental Modelling & Software · doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2013.02.011 · Cited by 65
Self-citationTowards an integrative assessment of land-use type values from the perspective of ecosystem services
Tasser, E., Schirpke, U., Zoderer, B. M., & Tappeiner, U. (2020) · Ecosystem Services · doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101082 · Cited by 64
Zhang, Z., Wang, X., Zhang, Y., Gao, Y., Liu, Y., Sun, X., Zhi, J., & Yin, S. (2023) · Landscape Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10980-023-01657-3 · Cited by 64
Lyle, G. (2014) · Journal of Rural Studies · doi:10.1016/j.jrurstud.2014.10.004 · Cited by 64
Shoemaker, D. A., BenDor, T. K., & Meentemeyer, R. K. (2018) · Computers Environment and Urban Systems · doi:10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2018.10.003 · Cited by 63
“Given the lack of empirical case study, and the impracticality of producing test cases at relevant scales, we employ simulation modeling as a practical approach (Pickard, Van Berkel, Petrasova, & Meentemeyer, 2017; Rounsevell et al., 2012) to evaluate the response of ecosystem service indicators to different urban gro…”
MethodInvestigating potential transferability of place-based research in land system science
Václavík, T., Langerwisch, F., Cotter, M., Fick, J., Häuser, I., Hotes, S., Kamp, J., Settele, J., Spangenberg, J., & Seppelt, R. (2016) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095002 · Cited by 62
“Place-based research in local and regional case studies has been central to understanding land use as a result of dynamic interactions within SESs that operate across spatial and temporal scales (Rounsevell et al 2012).”
BackgroundGuerra, C. A., Metzger, M. J., Maes, J., & Pinto‐Correia, T. (2015) · Landscape Ecology · doi:10.1007/s10980-015-0241-1 · Cited by 63
“Policy shifts can therefore lead to radical transformations at the landscape level, resulting in unintended changes in the provision of ecosystem goods and services (Millennium Assessment 2005; Braat and de Groot 2012; Rounsevell et al. 2012).”
Self-citationHerrando, S., Anton, M., Sardà‐Palomera, F., Bota, G., Gregory, R. D., & Brotons, L. (2014) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.04.011 · Cited by 62
Xu, D., & Ding, X. (2018) · Ecosystem Services · doi:10.1016/j.ecoser.2018.03.002 · Cited by 63
National ecosystem services mapping at multiple scales The German exemplar
Rabe, S.-E., Koellner, T., Marzelli, S., Schumacher, P., & Grêt‐Regamey, A. (2016) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.05.043 · Cited by 60
Metadata
- Authors
- Rounsevell, M. D. A., Pedroli, B., Erb, K.-H., Gramberger, M., Busck, A. G., Haberl, H., Kristensen, S., Kuemmerle, T., Lavorel, S., Lindner, M., Lotze-Campen, H., Metzger, M. J., Murray-Rust, D., Popp, A., Pérez-Soba, M., Reenberg, A., Vadineanu, A., Verburg, P. H., & Wolfslehner, B.
- Affiliations
- University of Edinburgh (GB)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- University of Klagenfurt (AT)
- Prospex (Belgium) (BE)
- University of Copenhagen (DK)
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- European Forest Institute (FI)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL)
- BOKU University (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Rounsevell, Mark D.A.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Land Use Policy
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2012-10
- Volume
- 29
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 899-910
- ISSN
- 0264-8377 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2153036505
- Cited by
- 393
- References
- 181
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 21 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 26 · 2020: 29 · 2019: 39 · 2018: 27 · 2017: 27 · 2016: 36 · 2015: 30 · 2014: 28 · 2013: 33 · 2012: 6
- FWCI
- 25.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- research.wur.nl
- Locations
- Land Use Policy (publishedVersion)
- VU Research Portal (publishedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- Digital Academic REpository of VU University Amsterdam (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) (submittedVersion)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- Research at the University of Copenhagen (University of Copenhagen) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Social Sciences › Development › Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Keywords
- land system science, land use change, multiscale modeling, complex systems thinking, scenario analysis, stakeholder engagement, land use intensity
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