A framework for complex climate change risk assessment
Open accessAbstract
Real-world experience underscores the complexity of interactions among multiple drivers of climate change risk and of how multiple risks compound or cascade. However, a holistic framework for assessing such complex climate change risks has not yet been achieved. Clarity is needed regarding the interactions that generate risk, including the role of adaptation and mitigation responses. In this perspective, we present a framework for three categories of increasingly complex climate change risk that focus on interactions among the multiple drivers of risk, as well as among multiple risks. A significant innovation is recognizing that risks can arise both from potential impacts due to climate change and from responses to climate change. This approach encourages thinking that traverses sectoral and regional boundaries and links physical and socio-economic drivers of risk. Advancing climate change risk assessment in these ways is essential for more informed decision making that reduces negative climate change impacts.
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Comprehensive risk assessment also needs to consider responses, as well as the common drivers across hazards, vulnerabilities, exposure, and responses.
“Comprehensive risk assessment also needs to consider responses, as well as the common drivers across these four risk determinants (Reisinger et al., 2021; Simpson et al., 2021).”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Simpson et al., 2021
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“common drivers across these four risk determinants (Reisinger et al., 2021; Simpson et al., 2021).”
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- Authors
- Simpson, N. P., Mach, K. J., Constable, A., Hess, J., Hogarth, R., Howden, M., Lawrence, J., Lempert, R. J., Muccione, V., Mackey, B., New, M. G., O'Neill, B., Otto, F., Pörtner, H.-O., Reisinger, A., Roberts, D., Schmidt, D. N., Seneviratne, S., Strongin, S., van Aalst, M., Totin, E., & Trisos, C. H.
- Affiliations
- University of Cape Town (ZA)
- University of Miami (US)
- Australian Antarctic Division (AU)
- University of Washington (US)
- Australian National University (AU)
- Victoria University of Wellington (NZ)
- RAND Corporation (US)
- University of Zurich (CH)
- Griffith University (AU)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (DE)
- eThekwini Municipality (ZA)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Goldman Sachs (United States) (US)
- Université d'Agriculture de Kétou (BJ)
- Corresponding author
- Simpson, Nicholas P.
- Trisos, Christopher H.
- ORCID
- Simpson, Nicholas P.
- Mach, Katharine J.
- Constable, Andrew
- Howden, Mark
- Lawrence, Judy
- Lempert, Robert J.
- Muccione, Veruska
- Mackey, Brendan
- New, Mark G.
- Otto, Friederike
- Pörtner, Hans-O.
- Reisinger, Andy
- Roberts, Debra
- Schmidt, Daniela N.
- Seneviratne, Sonia
- Strongin, Steven
- van Aalst, Maarten
- Totin, Edmond
- Trisos, Christopher H.
- Venue
- One Earth
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2021-04
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 489-501
- ISSN
- 2590-3322 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3157248347
- Cited by
- 722
- References
- 116
- Citations by year
- 2026: 150 · 2025: 152 · 2024: 154 · 2023: 142 · 2022: 96 · 2021: 27
- FWCI
- 42.94
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- One Earth (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- University of Twente Research Information (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar-und Meeresforschung (Alfred-Wegener-Institut) (submittedVersion)
- Griffith Research Online (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Repository for Publications and Research Data (ETH Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- ETH Zürich Research Collection (cc-by)
- Funders
- African Academy of Sciences
- International Development Research Centre (109419 – 001)
- Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office
- Royal Society
- Ministry for the Environment, New Zealand
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Keywords
- climate risk assessment, risk interactions, climate change drivers, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, climate change impacts, decision-making
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
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