Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict
Open accessAbstract
Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate-conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.
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Climate-related interstate conflict is less likely.
“We focused on violent conflict within states—such as civil wars, community violence, and riots—as the literature suggests that climate-related interstate conflict is less likely (O’Loughlin et al 2014, Mach et al 2019, Helman et al 2020).”
From The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways (2024) · cites this paper as Mach et al 2019
In “Direct and indirect future economic impacts” (page unavailable), the paper says water has prompted more cooperation than war among relatively well-functioning states over recent decades. That supports a narrower point, but it does not establish that climate-related interstate conflict generally is less likely than conflict within states; the same passage notes uncertainty about whether historical water cooperation will persist under substantial climate change. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe paper emphasises a pathway to insecurity starting with impacts from climate change but triggered by local and regional drivers of a new vulnerability stemming from access to grazing land, food and water insecurities and displacements, all combined with institutional failures and socio-cultural factors.
“Therefore, we emphasise a pathway to insecurity starting with impacts from climate change but triggered by local and regional drivers of a new vulnerability stemming from access to grazing land, food and water insecurities and displacements, all combined with institutional failures and socio-cultural factors.”
From Climate Change, Security, and the Resource Nexus: Case Study of Northern Nigeria and Lake Chad (2021) · cites this paper as [10]
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Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe mechanisms of climate-conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty.
“Firstly, as highlighted by Mach et al (2019), ‘the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty’.”
From The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: a review of causal pathways (2024) · cites this paper as Mach et al 2019
Armed conflict is a potential consequence of climatic hazards.
“However, armed conflict also is a potential consequence of climatic hazards (7,16).”
From Vicious Circles: Violence, Vulnerability, and Climate Change (2021) · cites this paper as [16]
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- Authors
- Mach, K. J., Kraan, C. M., Adger, W. N., Buhaug, H., Burke, M., Fearon, J. D., Field, C. B., Hendrix, C. S., Maystadt, J.-F., O’Loughlin, J., Roessler, P., Scheffran, J., Schultz, K. A., & von Uexkull, N.
- Affiliations
- Stanford University (US)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO)
- National Bureau of Economic Research (US)
- University of Denver (US)
- William & Mary (US)
- Universität Hamburg (DE)
- Corresponding author
- Mach, Katharine J.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2019-06-12
- Volume
- 571
- Issue
- 7764
- Pages
- 193-197
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2950320514
- Cited by
- 619
- References
- 40
- Citations by year
- 2026: 78 · 2025: 100 · 2024: 80 · 2023: 104 · 2022: 74 · 2021: 97 · 2020: 70 · 2019: 16
- FWCI
- 129.57
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- eprints.lancs.ac.uk
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (acceptedVersion)
- Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Digital Access to Libraries (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Transboundary Water Resource Management
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law › Environmental and Biological Research in Conflict Zones
- Keywords
- climate change, socio-economic development, state capabilities, expert opinion, climate change impacts
- MeSH terms
- Armed Conflicts, Climate, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Reproducibility of Results, Risk Assessment, Uncertainty, Risk Reduction Behavior, Climate Change
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