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Predicting Stock Market Indicators Through Twitter “I hope it is not as bad as I fear”

Open access
Zhang, Xue, Fuehres, Hauke, Gloor, Peter A.·2011·Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences

Abstract

This paper describes early work trying to predict stock market indicators such as Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P 500 by analyzing Twitter posts. We collected the twitter feeds for six months and got a randomized subsample of about one hundredth of the full volume of all tweets. We measured collective hope and fear on each day and analyzed the correlation between these indices and the stock market indicators. We found that emotional tweet percentage significantly negatively correlated with Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P 500, but displayed significant positive correlation to VIX. It therefore seems that just checking on twitter for emotional outbursts of any kind gives a predictor of how the stock market will be doing the next day.

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Research works printed but not linked: 15

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Metadata

Authors
Zhang, X., Fuehres, H., & Gloor, P. A.
Venue
Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2011
Volume
26
Pages
55-62
ISSN
1877-0428 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W2037625889
Cited by
640
References
2
FWCI
67.60
Type
conference paper
Language
en
Open access
diamond
Licence

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Zhang, X., Fuehres, H., & Gloor, P. A. (2011). Predicting Stock Market Indicators Through Twitter “I hope it is not as bad as I fear”. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.10.562

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