The DOI matches its Crossref record; 2 of the 2 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Predicting Stock Market Indicators Through Twitter “I hope it is not as bad as I fear”
Open accessAbstract
This paper describes early work trying to predict stock market indicators such as Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P 500 by analyzing Twitter posts. We collected the twitter feeds for six months and got a randomized subsample of about one hundredth of the full volume of all tweets. We measured collective hope and fear on each day and analyzed the correlation between these indices and the stock market indicators. We found that emotional tweet percentage significantly negatively correlated with Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P 500, but displayed significant positive correlation to VIX. It therefore seems that just checking on twitter for emotional outbursts of any kind gives a predictor of how the stock market will be doing the next day.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Measuring user influence in twitter: The million follower fallacy
Cha, M., Haddadi, H., Benevenuto, F., & Gummadi, K. (2010) · Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media · doi:10.1609/icwsm.v4i1.14033 · Cited by 3,022
Predicting the future with social media
Asur, S., & Huberman, B. A. (2010) · 2010 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology · doi:10.1109/wi-iat.2010.63 · Cited by 2,081
Research works printed but not linked: 15
- Antweiler, W. & Frank, M.Z. (2004). Is All That Talk Just Noise? The Information Content of Internet Stock Message Boards. Journal of Finance Vol. 59, No. 3 (Jan., 2004), pp.1259-1294. · DOI · Paper page
- Boyd. danah, Scott Golder, & Gilad Lotan (2010). Tweet, Tweet, Retweet: Conversational Aspects of Retweeting on Twitter. HICSS-43. IEEE: Kauai, HI, January 6. · DOI · Paper page
- Choudhury, M.D., Sundaram, H., John, A. & Seligmann, D.D. (2010). Can Blog Communication Dynamics be Correlated with Stock Market Activity? Proceedings of the nineteenth ACM conference on Hypertext and hypermedia, 2010.
- Connor, B., Balasubramanyan, R., Routledge, B.R. & Smith, N.A. (2010). From Tweets to Polls: Linking Text Sentiment to Public Opinion Time Series. 4th International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM), 2010. · DOI · Paper page
- Doshi, L. Krauss, J. Nann, S. Gloor, P. Predicting Movie Prices Through Dynamic Social Network Analysis. Proceedings COINs 2009, Collaborative Innovations Networks Conference, Savannah GA, Oct 8-11, 2009.
- Gilbert, E. & Karahalios, K. (2010). Widespread Worry and the Stock Market. 4th International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM), 2010. · DOI · Paper page
- Gloor, P. & Zhao, Y. (2004) TeCFlow - A Temporal Communication Flow Visualizer for Social Networks Analysis. ACM CSCW Workshop on Social Networks. ACM CSCW Conference, Chicago, Nov. 6. 2004.
- Gloor, P., Krauss, J., Nann, S., Fischbach, K. & Schoder, D. (2009). Web Science 2.0: Identifying Trends through Semantic Social Network Analysis. IEEE Conference on Social Computing (SocialCom-09), Aug 29-31, Vancouver, 2009. · DOI
- Huberman, B.A., Romero, D.M., & Wu F. (2009). Social networks that matter: Twitter under the microscope. First Monday, 14(1), 2009. · DOI · Paper page
- Java, A., Song, X., Finin, T. & Tseng, B. (2007). Why We Twitter: Understanding Microblogging Usage and Communities. 9th WebKDD and 1st SNA-KDD workshop on web mining and social network analysis, 2007. · DOI · Paper page
- Lampos, V. & Cristianini, N. (2010). Tracking the flu pandemic by monitoring the Social Web. IAPR 2nd Workshop on Cognitive Information Processing (CIP 2010), 14-16 Jun 2010. · DOI · Paper page
- Romero, D.M., Galuba, W., Asur, S. & Huberman, B.A. (2010). Influence and Passivity in Social Media. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1653135. · doi:10.2139/ssrn.1653135 · Paper page
- Tumasjan, A., Sprenger, T.O., Sandner P. G. & Welpe I. M. (2010). Predicting Elections with Twitter: Whan 140 Characters Reveal about Political Sentiment. 4th International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM), 2010. · DOI · Paper page
- Weng, J., Lim, E., Jiang, J. & He, Q. (2010). TwitterRank: Finding Topic-sensitive Influential Twitterers. WSDM,;1; 2010. · DOI · Paper page
- Yang, J. & Counts, S. (2010). Predicting the Speed, Scale, and Range of Information Diffusion in Twitter. 4th International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM), 2010. · DOI · Paper page
Cited by
Twitter mood predicts the stock market
Bollen, J., Mao, H., & Zeng, X. (2011) · Journal of Computational Science · doi:10.1016/j.jocs.2010.12.007 · Cited by 5,206
“In this paper we investigate whether public sentiment, as expressed in large-scale collections of daily Twitter posts, can be used to predict the stock market.”
BackgroundA systematic review of fundamental and technical analysis of stock market predictions
Nti, I. K., Adekoya, A. F., & Weyori, B. A. (2020) · Artificial Intelligence Review · doi:10.1007/s10462-019-09754-z · Cited by 547
A topology of Twitter research: disciplines, methods, and ethics
Zimmer, M., & Proferes, N. J. (2014) · Aslib Journal of Information Management · doi:10.1108/ajim-09-2013-0083 · Cited by 257
News or Noise? Using Twitter to Identify and Understand Company-specific News Flow
Sprenger, T. O., Sandner, P. G., Tumasjan, A., & Welpe, I. M. (2014) · Journal of Business Finance & Accounting · doi:10.1111/jbfa.12086 · Cited by 160
Anbaee Farimani, S., Vafaei Jahan, M., Milani Fard, A., & Tabbakh, S. R. K. (2022) · Knowledge-Based Systems · doi:10.1016/j.knosys.2022.108742 · Cited by 93
Metadata
- Authors
- Zhang, X., Fuehres, H., & Gloor, P. A.
- Venue
- Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2011
- Volume
- 26
- Pages
- 55-62
- ISSN
- 1877-0428 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2037625889
- Cited by
- 640
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 67.60
- Type
- conference paper
- Language
- en
- Open access
- diamond
- Licence
- www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
- www.elsevier.com/legal/tdmrep-license (tdm)
- creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ (vor, 927 d)
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Predicting Stock Market Indicators Through Twitter “I hope it is not as bad as I fear”. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.10.562
- The paper
- Zhang, X., Fuehres, H., & Gloor, P. A. (2011). Predicting Stock Market Indicators Through Twitter “I hope it is not as bad as I fear”. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.10.562
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.