Cited by 2,081Stock Market Forecasting MethodsSentiment Analysis and Opinion MiningForecasting Techniques and Applications

Predicting the future with social media

Open access
Asur, Sitaram, Huberman, Bernardo A.·2010·2010 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology

Abstract

In recent years, social media has become ubiquitous and important for social networking and content sharing. And yet, the content that is generated from these websites remains largely untapped. In this paper, we demonstrate how social media content can be used to predict real-world outcomes. In particular, we use the chatter from Twitter.com to forecast box-office revenues for movies. We show that a simple model built from the rate at which tweets are created about particular topics can outperform market-based predictors. We further demonstrate how sentiments extracted from Twitter can be further utilized to improve the forecasting power of social media.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1109/wi-iat.2010.63

Cites

16 of 16 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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  • Much research rests upon the assumption that online social traces reflect in some quantifiable way real-world phenomena.

    “Much research rests upon the assumption that online social traces reflect in some quantifiable way real-world phenomena (Asur and Huberman, 2010; Kıcıman and Richardson, 2015)”

    From Social Data: Biases, Methodological Pitfalls, and Ethical Boundaries (2019) · cites this paper as Asur and Huberman, 2010

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Authors
Asur, S., & Huberman, B. A.
Affiliations
Hewlett-Packard (United States) (US)
Venue
2010 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology
Publisher
IEEE
Published
2010-08
Pages
492-499
OpenAlex
W2015186536
Cited by
2,081
References
17
Citations by year
2026: 12 · 2025: 36 · 2024: 52 · 2023: 71 · 2022: 90 · 2021: 129 · 2020: 168 · 2019: 156 · 2018: 165 · 2017: 196 · 2016: 184 · 2015: 243 · 2014: 205 · 2013: 173 · 2012: 111
FWCI
269.17
Type
conference paper
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology (WI-IAT) (publishedVersion)
  • arXiv (Cornell University) (submittedVersion)
Funders
National Science Foundation (0937060)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Stock Market Forecasting Methods
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
Keywords
social media, Twitter, box office revenue, sentiment analysis, social media content

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